We are back after the All-Star break. Ready to celebrate with a nine-game slate. No, no, no. That is not a mistake. Maybe it’s time for you to jump into an ice-cold lake. Are you ready to partake? In knowledge that hopefully eradicates the snowflakes? So escape the doldrums of ignorance. Open the mind so that we can cut through the opaque. In order to bake a profitable cake to not only pay for the rake but to make our bank accounts quake, exposing one as large as Drake.
CLE, GS, OKC, and SAC are playing the first game of a back-to-back. Jamal Murray ($8,700), OG Anunoby ($6,200), and Jeremy Sochan ($5,200) are the notable players who are questionable. Keep abreast of all the injury news @dklive.
DraftKings Sportsbook has three games with a total over 235 - OKC/UTA (238.5), GS/LAL (238), and POR/SAC (239.5). The Mavericks are the biggest favorites at 13.5 points over the Spurs, while the OKC/UTA game has the tightest spread at 2 points in favor of the Jazz. IND is the only home dog on the slate.
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Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings ($11,400) – This game has the highest total on the slate at 239. Portland doesn’t play fast, but Sacramento is 10th in pace this season. Both teams are atrocious at defense, as Portland is 27th in defensive rating while Sacramento isn’t much better at 22. So, the game environment should be a juicy one for fantasy. But, but, but....That’s not all. Anfernee Simons is out due to an ankle injury, and so is Jusuf Nurkic. With both of those players out, along with Josh Hart, Lillard has seen a massive usage rate increase of 10.6% to a whopping 44.1% usage rate.
Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($7,500) – The Jazz reconfigured their squad at the trade deadline, sending Mike Conley to Minnesota and Malik Beasley to Los Angeles. With those two off the court this season, Clarkson has seen a 5.4% usage rate bump to a team-leading 33.8%. He’s averaging 1.04 DKFP per minute on the season and put up 40.25 DKFP in the most recent contest while chucking up 21 shots, grabbing 9 rebounds, and dishing out 6 assists.
Other Options - James Harden ($9,900), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,500), Ja Morant ($10,800), Donovan Mitchell ($9,500), De’Aaron Fox ($9,800), Desmond Bane ($8,100),
Value
Talen Horton-Tucker, Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($4,800) – Collin Sexton is out for the next two games so Horton-Tucker will likely step in for him. In the last game, when Sexton got injured and only played four minutes, Horton-Tucker received 32 minutes and contributed 15 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 blocks. On the season, he’s averaging 1.02 DKFP per minute and could see over 30 minutes once again in this one.
Other Options - Markelle Fultz ($6,000), Jaden Ivey ($5,500), Malaki Branham ($4,500), Shaedon Sharpe ($3,800), Matisse Thybulle ($3,500)
Forward
Studs
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors ($10,700) – The Lakers are currently 13th in the Western Conference with a 27-32 record. They are two games out of the play in game and only five games back of the fourth seed. The Lakers tweaked the roster and James is well-rested and will likely have all systems go for this final 23-game stretch before the playoffs. He averages 1.46 DKFP per minute and is a threat to triple-double on any given night. This game has the second-highest total on the slate at 238, so there should be plenty of opportunities to rack up those fantasy goodies.
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers ($11,000) – Tatum has scored fewer than 40 DKFP in two of his last four games. It happens, especially when he can’t hit the side of the barn. In those two games, he shot 5-of-15 and 3-of-16. Gross. In three of the last five games, though, he put up 60.75, 58.5, and 60.25 DKFP. Uh, yeah. He is good, and when the shot is falling, he contributes a ton of fantasy goodies, especially because he normally contributes a little something in every category. The Pacers are 8th in offensive pace and 23rd in defensive rating. Tatum faced the Pacers back in December and went for 60.25 DKFP.
Other Options - Pascal Siakam ($10,200)
Value
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz ($6,100) – Williams is coming off a 22.5 DKFP performance, but that was due to only playing 22 minutes due to a blowout. In the prior three games, he went for 43.25, 32.5, and 50.75 DKFP while playing 39, 33, and 40 minutes! This game has a 238 total, the second-highest on the slate, with a tight 2-point spread. Williams isn’t cheap but he could be a great way to get exposure to this game, possibly at low ownership since many will likely utilize Gilgeous-Alexander, Clarkson, and/or Horton-Tucker.
Other Options - Kelly Olynyk ($5,300), Keegan Murray ($4,700), Josh Green ($4,600), Matisse Thybulle ($3,500)
Center
Studs
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers ($11,800) – Jokic has exceeded points expectations 70% of the time this season and likely has the highest floor/ceiling combo. He is averaging a whopping 1.68 DKFP per minute, is a threat to triple-double on any given night, and contributes the fantasy goodness in so many ways. He rarely scores fewer than 50 DKFP and has an 80-DKFP upside. That said, this is a pace-down matchup against one of the best defensive teams in the league. Jokic is not putting up the monster scores as frequently as he has in the past, which makes fading him more palatable this season than the past two seasons. Decisions, decisions.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Memphis Grizzlies ($11,100) – Embiid isn’t too far behind Jokic from a fantasy perspective, as he’s averaging 1.6 DKFP per minute. Over the last 10 games, he’s gone for at least 60 DKFP four times with a high of 87.5 while putting up fewer than 50 DKFP three times. He faced Memphis back in early July and put up 69.25 DKFP. Steven Adams was the primary defender in that one and he’s out for this one. Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,800) is a very good defender, but he’s prone to foul trouble, and Embiid could get busy against the youngster.
Other Options - Anthony Davis ($10,600), Domantas Sabonis ($10,100)
Value
Zach Collins, San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks ($5,600) – Since Jakob Poeltl was traded, Collins has played 32, 32, 24, and 36 minutes, contributing 40, 31.75, 23.25, and 49.25 DKFP. The 24-minute game was due to a blowout. Collins has been contributing in every category except for blocks, so the floor is relatively high. The usage rate has fluctuated from the teens to the low-20s, so points will be inconsistent, but the 5, 6, 4, and 3 assists show his ability as a passer and involvement in the offense.
Other Options - Walker Kessler ($5,700), Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,800), Kelly Olynyk ($5,300), Kevon Looney ($4,400), Jakob Poeltl ($5,900), James Wiseman ($3,500), Mo Bamba ($3,200)
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $600K Return From Break Special [$150K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.