Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets, Values for February 25

Saturday Night NBA DFS features a full-size slate this weekend. It’s a good one and you’re going to need a lot of screens. Let’s dig into some research and make some picks, as we gear up for the six-game main slate that starts at 7 p.m. ET.

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Guard

Studs

Markelle Fultz, Orlando Magic vs. Indiana Pacers, $6,600 — These two teams are headed in opposite directions. The Magic have sat up like the Undertaker, and the casket has been closed on the Pacers. Fultz will shovel the dirt on Saturday night. The 2017 No. 1 overall pick is coming into his own. Quietly, he and the Magic are having a terrific season. Heading into the All-Star break, Fultz averaged 33.1 DKFP per game in the nine games since Jan. 30.

Value

Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic vs. Indiana Pacers, $4,000 — Magic G Markelle Fultz is by no means expensive but he does lack upside. Suggs isn’t a starter and won’t likely bank a ton of raw points, but he’s cheaper than Fultz and could be a better point-per-dollar play. With the second unit, Suggs is getting playing time in the mid twenties with a usage rate in the high teens. He played 29 minutes with a 25.2% usage rate in the last game before the break. This was his best performance since returning to a regular rotation role with Orlando (36.5 DKFP).

Devonte’ Graham, San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz, $4,500 — On Feb. 10, the Spurs’ whole lineup was on the injury report. Graham was the chalk play of the night. He scored 42 DKFP in 37 minutes of work. The Spurs got healthy the next night and everyone moved on. It’s time to take another look. Graham played 24, 29 and 22 minutes off the bench in the next three games. He averaged 26 DKFP in those contests and his usage rate was 23.3% and 26.3% in the last two games. He’s getting enough minutes and is a leader on the second unit. Pop likes him, so his role won’t change on this up-tempo team. The Jazz present a golden matchup with a 114 Defensive Efficiency Rating (26th) and an above-average 102.4 in Pace (11th).

Forward

Studs

Michael Porter, Jr., Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies, $6,000 — This pick requires DFS players to look a little closer. Memphis has a great defense this season, but they stumbled into the break going 6-9 — that was the sixth-worst record. Memphis still has a good defense but they’re not a team that must be avoided since losing Steven Adams to injury. Speaking of injury, Nuggets PG Jamal Murray ($7,800) could be limited or out on Saturday. In contrast, Porter Jr. is finally healthy and back up to speed. He’s not priced like a stud because of the situation on the surface, but dig a little deeper and Porter projects to provide plenty of potential points.

Value

Talen Horton-Tucker, Utah Jazz vs. San Antonio Spurs, $5,500 — The All-Star hangover should be over by Saturday. Do hangovers even exist in the state that had a 3.2 % ABV law? Even if the Jazz pounded the light drinks during the days off, they should still pound the Spurs. THT has stepped into a larger rotation role following Utah’s trade deadline moves. Over the last five games, THT is averaging 31.5 DKFP across 26 MPG with a 23.2% Usage Rate. Also, Horton-Tucker provides added value with his SG/SF eligibility.

Ochai Agbaji, Utah Jazz vs. San Antonio Spurs, $3,400 — This could be an overreaction to one game. Before Utah’s festivities kicked off, some Jazz starters rested. The 14th pick in the 2022 draft was productive — although not efficient nor particularly active — in the second start of his career (22.75 DKFP in 39 minutes). His role has been increasing, but he could shrink back to his previous role. On Thursday night, he recorded 12 points, four rebounds and three assists in 22 minutes. In a matchup with the Spurs, the rookie might get some extra run. The Spurs present a propitious matchup with a 117.8 Defensive Efficiency Rating (30th) and an up-tempo 103.7 in Pace (5th). Also, Agbaji provides added value with his SG/SF eligibility.

Center

Studs

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies, $11,700 — Nothing changes. Every Jokic blurb is the same. He has a high floor and ceiling, and his 1.8 FPPM backs that up. However, there is one factoid that makes this blurb different and worth reading. As mentioned above, Memphis has struggled without Steven Adams. Over the last 10 games, they rank in the bottom 10 in points in the paint allowed. They have allowed the fourth-most second chance points and are the second-worst in defensive rebounding percentage. Also, Memphis plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA. Jokic is in a great spot on Saturday.

Value

Wendell Carter Jr., Orlando Magic vs. Indiana Pacers, $6,500 — Most of the time, DFS players pay up or down at center. It’s an effective strategy. Elite centers have high floors and upside. Cheap centers are fairly consistent producers, too. Their position on the court leads to easy rebound points, high-percentage shot attempts and contested shots that result in trips to the free throw line. This means it is contrarian to play a center in the middle tier. Carter provides further leverage because most still worry about the Magic’s crowded front court. Mo Bamba is gone, and even before, Carter Jr. was getting plenty of work (30.1 MPG and a 21.2% Usage Rate). The Pacers present a golden matchup with a 113.8 Defensive Efficiency Rating (25th) and an attractive 103.7 in Pace (5th).

Zach Collins, San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz, $6,200 — As expected when Jakob Poeltl left town, Collins stepped into the starting lineup. He’s played over thirty minutes in three of his four starts. His usage rate has dropped in his new role, but with more minutes comes more shot and rebound opportunities. In the four recent starts, he has scored 49, 23, 31 and 40 DKFP. It’s too early to decide his upside probability, but he should have a solid floor playing for the Spurs. This team is going nowhere but they’re getting there at a high speed. Bad defenses that play up-tempo basketball are goldmines in DFS. A different Spur might pop off each night, but the big man should always be a solid play. C Charles Bassey ($3,500) was called up from the G League and has taken over Collins’ previous role as a backup center. At his current price, he’s worth consideration in this matchup.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $333K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.