Eight. That’s how many games we have on this slate. Ain’t that great? For those of you who are irate, please move to a state that does not allow gambling because I cannot relate. With a player pool as vast as the oil fields in Kuwait, choosing the right pieces is up for debate. I am not here to dictate which path to take, only to post signs on this DK interstate. Make sure to account for news that comes late, for those open gates that cause the entire matrix to update. May fortune shine brightly upon you so that you can afford a Chick-Fil-A Greek Parfait. Have you seen how expensive those are? Now that fosters much hate.
CHA, MIA and NYK are playing the first game of a back-to-back. CLE, GSW, OKC and SAC played last night. Bradley Beal ($7,700) and Mitchell Robinson ($5,200) are the notable players who are questionable. Keep abreast of all the injury news @dklive.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the CHA/MIN game with the highest total at 241. The MIA/MIL has the lowest total at 219. The Warriors are the biggest favorite at 10.5 points over the Rockets while the CLE/ATL game has the tightest spread at 1.0 point in favor of the Hawks. WAS is the only home dog.
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Guard
Studs
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves ($11,000) – There are only two players priced about $10k, and Ball is the highest-priced player, not just on this slate but it’s a season-high price for him. Did this morning’s Core PCE report include Ball in it as well? Decisions will have to be made. Due to the high price, the ownership should be muted, especially since Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,200) is priced at $800 cheaper. That said, this game does have the highest total at 241 and the teams are 4th and 5th in offensive pace. Ball has exceeded points expectations 70% of the time this season and, over the last four games, he’s put up 65, 62.5, 52.25 and 52.25 DKFP while playing 39, 41, 35 and 38 minutes. He’s a threat to triple-double on any given night
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks at Washington Wizards ($8,800) – Bruson has had an amazing season, exceeding points expectations 70% of the time. Over the last four games, he’s gone for 44.75, 55, 51.75 and 52.25 DKFP. “Look. Look at me. I’m the captain now.” He’s played 39, 36, 39 and 39 minutes while garnering a usage rate in the 30% range. In two prior games with Washington this season, Brunson went for 46.25 and 61 DKFP.
Other Options - Jrue Holiday ($8,900), Terry Rozier ($7,400), Mikal Bridges ($7,400)
Value
Josh Christopher, Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors ($3,300) – The Rockets’ backcourt is very thin tonight with Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green out. While Christopher may not start, he should approach 28 minutes of run in this one. On the season, he’s averaging 0.83 DKFP per minute. It’s not spectacular, but at the price, it’s more than palatable. Back in February, he played 29 minutes and put up 31 DKFP, so there is a greater than Lloyd Christmas chance of accessing a ceiling tonight.
Other Options - Mike Conley ($5,700), Gabe Vincent ($5,000), Ty Jerome ($3,600), TyTy Washington ($3,000)
Forward
Studs
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Charlotte Hornets ($9,100) – Edwards is the leader of this Timberwolves pack now. Aahhhwoooooooooo! He’s playing in the mid-to-high 30s and garnering a usage rate in the same area. He’s scored 34 and 32 points in the last two games, but the DKFP divergence was large, 51.25 vs. 38.75. He racked up 3 steals and 1 block in the 51.25 DKFP game, and those can’t be counted on the regular. This game will be popular and Edwards could be the highest-rostered player on the slate. A fade is well warranted because the range of outcomes is diverse. He does have a 70-DKFP ceiling, so keep that in mind, but the chances are muted to a degree.
Julius Randle, New York Knicks at Washington Wizards ($9,800) – Randle may not be the King of New York anymore, as Brunson has taken the crown. At least his head is no longer on a swivel, for New Yorkers once wanted to stab this Julius in the back, and the front for that matter. Gotta respect New Yorkers for that at least. Anyways, Randle has been a model of consistency recently. Since the start of the new year, he’s scored at least 40 DKFP in 23 straight, with 12 of those over 50, three over 60 and a high of 71.75. Randle is third in the NBA with 38 double-doubles and he put up 41.25 and 47.5 DKFP the last two times he faced Washington.
Other Options - Kristaps Porzingis ($9,500), Evan Mobley ($7,300), PJ Washington ($6,600)
Value
Lugentz Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns ($4,500) – Dort missed six games due to injury. Since returning, he played 20, 24 and 24 minutes. Last night, he received 36 minutes of run. There is a risk because this is the second leg of a back-to-back but if he gets over 30 minutes, the price doesn’t reflect that. Dort averages 0.87 DKFP per minute and is usually priced $1,000 more.
Other Options - Kyle Anderson ($5,100), Kenyon Martin Jr. ($5,400), Josh Okogie ($5,200)
Center
Studs
Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers ($9,900) – Sabonis leads the league in double-doubles with 46. He also has 7 triple-doubles on the season resume. The usage rate isn’t sky-high, usually in the mid-20s, but he is so heavily involved in the offense that the number is a little misleading. Over the last six games, he’s gone for at least 40 DKFP in every contest with 63.5 and 56.75 DKFP in the two most recent. Ivica Zubac is out so Mason Plumlee ($5,100) will likely get the start and play a ton of minutes. While in Charlotte, he was a big factor in allowing an FPPM boost to opposing centers by a whopping 22.33% above league. Now, the scheme and surrounding talent in Los Angeles is much better, so I wouldn’t expect the same robustness, but at the end of the day, Plumlee has never been known as any kind of stopper.
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks ($7,300) – The potential has always been there for Mobley, at both ends of the court, but he’s been inconsistent up to this point of his career. Well, over the last few games, he’s been putting it all together. The defense has always been there, but it’s been the aggression at the offensive end that has been most encouraging. He’s gone for 31 and 23 points in the last two games on 19 attempts in both contests. Over the last 13 games, he’s gone at least 30 DKFP in all with six over 40 and a high of 58.75.
Other Options - Nikola Vucevic ($9,400), Bobby Portis ($7,600), Jarrett Allen ($6,900)
Value
Kevon Looney, Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets ($4,700) – Looney is the boy who comes to pick up your daughter with the nicely pressed IZOD collared shirt, tucked in and says “sir” and “please.” He won’t be pressing the NOS on the freeway, reaching heights of 60 DKFP. Nope, he’s going to land in the 30 DKFP range. Which is fine. Over the last four games, he’s put up 33.25, 33.5, 36.75 and 29.25 DKFP. That’s despite the minutes being all over the map. If you want the upside, then go in another direction. If you want solid points at the price point, you won’t be Looney for considering Kevon.
Other Options - Jaylin Williams ($3,400)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.