10 games on this last day of the month. Do not rely on just a hunch, for that will likely turn you into a dunce. If you’re in a slump, take your time and let all the information marinate, even if it doesn’t settle until after lunch. Meditate like a monk. Who knows? Only after hours of participating in the hunt could that player appear at the forefront of our brains. You know, the one who opens up the slate, the all-important punt. May one of you bink a tournament. One time, just this once!
BKN, CHI, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIL, OKC and POR are playing the first game of a back-to-back. No teams played last night. De’Aaron Fox ($9,100) and Jamal Murray ($8,000) are the notable players who are questionable. Keep abreast of all the injury news @dklive.
DraftKings Sportsbook has nine of the 10 games with a total of at least 230. The CHI/TOR is the only one below with a total of 220.5. The largest spreads are DEN -10.5 over HOU, MEM -9 over LAL and UTA -9.5 over SA. The tightest spread is SAC -2.5 over OKC. BKN, HOU and OKC are home dogs.
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Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors ($11,500) – It truly was Dame Time last game, as he put up 71 real points and ended the night with 93 DKFP. In the prior game before that, he went for 63.5 DKFP. Those games were against the Rockets and Wizards, though. The matchup against the Warriors should be much stiffer, right? Well, Houston is 29th in defensive rating while Washington is 19th. Golden State? 18th. In the two prior games against the Warriors this season, Lillard went for 66.5 and 54 DKFP. Those aren’t the reasons I like Lillard, though. In the last two games, the usage rate has been 53.7% and 44.7%. Anfernee Simons has been out of those two games and will be out for this one as well. He’s also played 39 minutes in both contests while hoisting up 38 and 30 shots. I wouldn’t expect the same efficiency to continue, but there’s no denying the minutes and sky-high usage rate, which is unmatched on the slate.
Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trail Blazers ($8,100) – I usually don’t like paying up for primary shooters, but I may make an exception tonight. With the Warriors hobbled with injuries, Klay has stepped up in a big way. He’s put up 32 and 42 points in the last two games while grabbing 5 and 7 rebounds respectively. The important numbers, though, are the 33 and 36 minutes he’s played while garnering a 33.5% and 30.7% usage rate. This game has a healthy total of 235.5 and the spread is 4 points in favor of Golden State. Portland has boosted the FPPM to shooting guards by 7.41% above league average, with a 21% boost for 3-pointers. Klay is kind of good at shooting those.
Other Options - Trae Young ($9,500), Josh Giddey ($7,500), Russell Westbrook ($7,100)
Value
Kris Dunn, Utah Jazz vs. San Antonio Spurs ($3,600) – Both Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson are out tonight, so Dunn will likely get the start. He has played two games this past week and received 17 and 24 minutes, producing 17.75 and 40.25 DKFP. The Spurs are dead-last in defensive rating and Dunn should get plenty of run in this one.
Other Options - Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,900), Dennis Schroder ($4,900), Malik Beasley ($4,500), Isaiah Joe ($4,400), Malik Monk ($4,900) if Fox is out, Malaki Branham ($5,400), Ty Jerome ($3,700), Reggie Jackson ($4,100) if Murray is out
Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets ($12,300) – There’s tons of risk here since Giannis has played only 7 and 10 minutes in the last two games due to injury. He’s probable for tonight, though, and that 1.72 DKFP per minute can never be denied. That said, he’s the most expensive player on the slate and the Nets are 11th-best in allowing points in the paint. Could Giannis put up the rawest points on the slate and have a score you have to have? Sure, but more often than not, he won’t so a fade is viable.
Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz ($6,900) – Johnson may not be the sexiest option but he’s very solid and could access a ceiling game if things break right. He has a 52 and 61.75 DKFP game on his resume this season. He is averaging 1.04 DKFP per minute, so the likely outcome is somewhere in the 30 DKFP range but he’s playing around 35 minutes and garnering a usage rate in the 26% to 30% range. He did play this Jazz team three days ago and went for 32.75 DKFP and they are 26th in defensive rating, so that was probably a floor outcome.
Other Options - Lauri Markkanen ($9,400), Jalen Williams ($6,000)
Value
Troy Brown Jr., Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies ($3,100) – The LeBron James injury has opened up a ton of minutes on the wing for the Lakers. Brown will likely get the start. How many minutes he plays remains to be seen, so expectations should be muted, especially since he averages only 0.64 DKFP per minute. That said, he does have two games this season in which he exceeded 30 DKFP: 31 in 27 minutes back in November and 39.75 in 31 minutes a month ago.
Other Options - Michael Porter Jr. ($5,700), Kyle Anderson ($5,600), Lugentz Dort ($5,000), Jeremy Sochan ($5,000), Cam Reddish ($4,500), Keita Bates-Diop ($4,400)
Center
Studs
Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies ($10,300) – With LeBron off the court this season, Davis has garnered a 32.3% usage rate. He is now the offensive hub of the Lakers. The beautiful thing about Davis from a fantasy perspective is that he contributes in every statistical category, so the floor is relatively high. The ceiling is sky-high as well because he can dominate at both ends of the floor. It’s simply all about health for him.
Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder ($9,800) – Sabonis leads the league in double-doubles and has seven triple-doubles on the season. The only knock on him is that he doesn’t contribute much in the defensive categories. Over the last eight games, he’s gone for at least 40 DKFP in all with a 56.75 and 63.6 DKFP game mixed in. This game has a healthy total of 234.5 with a spread of only 3 points. De’Aaron Fox ($9,100) is also questionable, which could put more of the offensive onus on Sabonis. That rhymes. Ha!
Other Options - Nikola Jokic ($11,800), Walker Kessler ($6,700), Brook Lopez ($6,600), Zach Collins ($6,400), Jakob Poeltl ($6,100)
Value
Kevon Looney, Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trail Blazers ($5,000) – Looney is the boy who comes to pick up your daughter with the nicely pressed IZOD collared shirt, tucked in and says “sir” and “please.” He won’t be pressing the NOS on the freeway, reaching heights of 60 DKFP. Nope, he’s going to land in the 30 DKFP range. Which is fine and respect needs to be given. He’s exceeded points expectations 80% of the time this season and, over the last five games, he’s put up 33.25, 33.5, 36.75, 29.25 and 39.75 DKFP. That’s despite the minutes being all over the map. If you want the upside, then go in another direction. If you want solid points at the price point, you won’t be Looney for considering Kevon.
Other Options - Kelly Olynyk ($5,600), Mason Plumlee ($5,200), Drew Eubanks ($4,900), Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,100)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.