Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets, Values for February 4

Saturday Night NBA DFS features a full-size slate this weekend. It’s a big one and you’re going to need a lot of screens. Let’s dig into some research and make some picks, as we gear up for the seven-game main slate that starts at 7 p.m. ET.

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Guard

Studs

Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks, $7,900 — The Nuggets are on the first leg of a back-to-back and they have a couple of stars on the injury report — C Nikola Jokic ($11,400) and PF Aaron Gordon ($6,600). There is a chance that Murray could be the sole provider on Saturday night. The Hawks present an advantageous matchup for the possible bread winner with a 112.3 Defensive Efficiency Rating (20th) and an attractive 102.9 in Pace (8th).

Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks, $10,100 — This slate lacks DFS star power. Curry doesn’t work nightly because of coach Steve Kerr’s disinterested approach to the regular season. Tonight, it looks like Curry will get his full workload against the short-handed Mavs (Warriors -9). Earlier this week, Curry scored 66.25 and 71.5 DKFP. His minutes, Usage Rate and 3-point attempts rank among the best in action on Saturday.

Value

Jaden Hardy, Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, $3,000 — Luka Doncic is out and Christian Wood is out, but that’s not all. PG/SG Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,100) is questionable. If all three are out, Dallas will be the focus of the slate. With just Doncic and Wood out, the Mavs are still a big piece of the slate. This is a paced-up spot for the Mavs, and there will be major minute and usage rate increases across the board.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks, $5,000 — Everyone knows by now. The weekend NBA DFS targets article has a couple steadfast rules. Among these rules to live by is: play KCP at home. It never fails. Somehow, the Nuggets are at home every weekend (must be nice). Road teams struggle at altitude. This little advantage is all KCP needs. Also, the Nuggets might be running thin in the thin air on Saturday. This could lead to more minutes and a higher usage rate for KCP. Don’t sleep on first-round pick and future star SG Christian Braun ($3,100). He’s carving out a role on this team and with a crowded injury report, Braun could get plenty of run and a possible start on Saturday,

Daishen Nix, Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, $3,700 — The worst team in the NBA is going to do worst-team things. At the moment, that is giving Nix minutes. He’s started four of the last five games. He’s played 36, 21, 27, 32 and 33 minutes. In the last three, he has scored 16.5, 24.75 and 20.75 DKFP. SG Josh Christopher ($3,200) is also getting work for the permanently grounded Rockets. The team may not be getting off the launch pad, but Christopher has a usage rate north of 25% in his 18 MPG over the last three games. With injuries and a couple more minutes, Christopher can work (5.6x and 6.6x in the last two games).

Forward

Studs

Andrew Wiggins, Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks, $6,000 — The Mavericks present a golden matchup with a 112.4 Defensive Efficiency Rating (22nd) but an uncharitable 98 in Pace (29th). The slow pace is tolerable because the Warriors will push the pace and the Mavs may run a lot faster without their normal stars. Wiggins is getting minutes, but he needs a usage increase and more rebounding opportunities. Depending on the lineups, both could occur on Saturday.

Value

Josh Green, Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, $4,000 — It’s a Mavs Stack Saturday. Normally, Mavs stacks are rare. The offense typically centers around one player. However, Mavs Stack Saturdays have been a thing this season. The Mavericks have tended to rest their stars on Saturdays. This time, everyone is actually injured. That leaves all of the work for Green, SF Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,400) and SF/PF Reggie Bullock ($3,400). They’re going to play north of 30 minutes and possibly 40 minutes, and their usage rates will be at season highs with the Mavericks’ main producers off the court.

Dorian Finney-Smith, Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, $3,000 — Another Mav? Don’t like it, don’t play. This might not be the slate for you — or maybe it is. Fading the Mavs will create massive leverage. DFS should be popular in DFS. The Mavs are short-handed and this is a paced-up contest (they all are for the Mavs). In the last 10 games, DFS has averaged 25.6 DKFP across 34.2 MPG for an average return of 6.2x. In his last four games, DFS has been the DFS value pick of the night with returns of 7.1x, 3.9x, 7.9x and 10x.

Center

Studs

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat, $11,9000 — This is not an easy matchup for the Bucks, but those tend to be the games where Giannis Antetokounmpo shines. As his team struggles, Antetokounmpo decidedly takes over. On Thursday, the Bucks found themselves in a massive hole vs. the Clippers. Giannis took over. He scored 81.75 DKFP and the Bucks won by one point. He has scored 70 DKFP or more in three of the last four games. The Bucks will absolutely need 70 DKFP if they want to beat the Heat on Saturday.

Value

Dwight Powell, Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, $4,100 — This is not the most trustworthy value pick. Powell and the low capacity Mavs have disappointed before. However, when everyone is out, Powell has to step into a playmaking role. He’s not a high-upside center, but this is a paced-up contest and the Warriors could rest players in an easy matchup at home.

Drew Eubanks, Portland Trail Blazers at Chicago Bulls, $3,600 — The good news is that Eubanks will be well rested on the back-end of the back-to-back. The bad news is that he played 18 minutes on Friday because of foul trouble. Eubanks also got into foul trouble on Wednesday, so playing PF/C Trendon Watford ($3,000) might be the better option with Jusuf Nukic out. Watford has played 26, 22 and 29 minutes in the last three games. However, only Friday’s 34.25 DKFP was noteworthy. If Eubanks can stay out of foul trouble, he should easily return 6x value. If he messes around, then Watford could be the big-man value play of the night.

Isaiah Hartenstein, New York Knicks vs. Los Angeles Clippers, $3,900 — What’s a slate without a revenge game narrative? How about a Isaiah Hartenstein revenge game? The Clippers better watch out. On a serious note, Hartenstein has looked good this season when coach Tom Thibodeau let’s him play. Over the last five games, Hartenstein is averaging 24.25 DKFP in 25.8 MPG for a return of 7.0x.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.