Super Bowl LVII will match up the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs. This will be the third Super Bowl appearance for the Chiefs over the last four seasons and the fifth for the franchise. The Eagles will return to the big game for the first time since 2018 when they defeated the Patriots 41-33. This will mark the fourth appearance in the big game for the Eagles and they will be seeking their second win.
The Chiefs and Eagles ranked first and second in points scored per game, but the Eagles were much more dominant on defense. Philadelphia was second in yards allowed and seventh in points allowed. Philadelphia also led the league in average scoring margin at +9.9 while the Chiefs ranked fourth at +7.2.
While the Eagles have been the more dominant team, there’s little doubt that the Chiefs have a big experience edge. Given how long Andy Reid spent as the head coach of the Eagles, there’s also a big emotional element to this game that could spill onto the field at some point.
There’s plenty to think about, so let’s not waste any more time. Below we’ll break down this game player by player, and attempt to develop a winning lineup strategy for DFS Showdown purposes on DraftKings.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $6M Super Bowl LVII Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Super Bowl)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Jalen Hurts ($13,800 CP) - The two quarterbacks in play this week will both cost you over $16,000, but there’s really not much of a comparison in terms of choice. Hurts has averaged over 10.0 carries a game this season and scored 15 rushing TDs, which gives us an insane floor to work with. Mahomes on the other hand will be up against the top-rated pass defense in the league and comes into this game having averaged under 7.5 yards per attempt in his last four games of the season. Hurts will also be up against a Chiefs team who allowed the fifth-most rushing yards against this season. Eating the chalk with the Eagles quarterback and favorite for the MVP award is perfectly fine for the big contests this week.
Miles Sanders ($11,700 CP) - The running game with the Eagles is a huge area of concern for the Chiefs this week. They allowed 6.2 yards per carry to Travis Etienne Jr. in the Divisional Round and will now be up against the No. 1 rushing offense in the league via the DVOA rankings on Football Outsiders. Sanders has been limited the last couple of games due to noncompetitive contests, but the Eagles won't be load managing their starters against the Chiefs. While he’s far riskier than Hurts, Sanders has scored multiple rushing TDs three times this season and could be in for a huge second half if the Eagles get out to a multi-score lead. If you’re building for a big Eagles’ win, Sanders makes for a great boom-or-bust style captain’s target.
Jerick McKinnon ($10,200 CP) - Of all the Chiefs’ offensive weapons to consider for our captain’s spot, McKinnon offers us the best blend of price and upside. His two slow games in the post-season have driven his starting price down to almost $10,000 flat, which saves us over $5,000 off of a player like Travis Kelce ($15,900 - CP). McKinnon may not be the most consistent player — week in, week out — but he’s outscored Kelce in three of the last seven games the Chiefs have played on DraftKings, and he is tied with Kelce in red zone touches this season with 38.
FLEX Plays
Travis Kelce ($10,600) - Even if you think Travis Kelce is overpriced as a captain, you still have to respect the floor he brings to the table for fantasy scoring. He’s caught six or more passes in six straight games and has a 31.2% team target share in the playoffs. The Eagles defense only allowed three TDs to TEs this season and the 12th fewest receptions to the position overall. Considering his high price, fading Kelce as a captain in this spot has some merit given how elite the Eagles pass defense is — but his floor still makes him an excellent flex candidate. If the Chiefs don’t score that many points, his receptions alone could make him the team leader in fantasy production.
Devonta Smith ($8,600) - The Eagles have two elite WRs in Smith and AJ Brown, but Smith comes $600 cheaper and has proven his floor may even be superior as a fantasy option. His 26.5% team target share ranks right behind Brown in two playoff games and he’s scored under 15.0 DKFP just twice in his last seven games. Smith and Brown both get moved in and out of the slot at times although Smith is likely the more natural slot option, which could be huge for his prospects this week if Chiefs slot CB L’Jarius Sneed (concussion) doesn’t get cleared in time for this game. Either way, taking the discount on Smith over his teammate is well warranted in this spot.
Kenneth Gainwell ($4,800) - Gainwell has looked great running the ball over the back half of the season. He’s averaged 6.29 yards per carry over his last three games and is also the Eagles best pass-catching option out of the backfield — and has at least one catch in each of his previous nine games. A lot of Gainwell’s recent fantasy production has come in blowouts, where his snap count gets elevated due to the score. If you’re playing for a big Eagles win this week, you should definitely consider getting him in lineups at under $5,000. A late TD and some extra carries in the fourth quarter would be very likely in that scenario.
Eagles DST ($3,800) - The Eagles DST shouldn’t be brushed off as a flex play simply because Patrick Mahomes is on the other side of the ball. Mahomes still threw 12 INTs this season and his mobility will be at less than 100% due to his ankle injury. The Eagles rate out as the top-ranked defense against the pass and led the league in sacks per game. For DFS, we’re also talking about a unit that scored 10.0 or more DKFP eight times this season and is priced just barely above third-string RBs and WRs — who averaged under 2.0 targets a game. Philly’s DST is a target this week, especially if you’re building around an Eagles win.
Marcus Kemp ($200) - Kemp is the classic min-priced, boom-or-bust target this week that could make your lineup with one big catch-and-run. He played on 32% of the snaps against the Bengals and has been in this offense for five seasons. If Mecole Hardman and/or Kadarius Toney can’t play, he’ll likely be activated as the fourth/fifth WR and potentially could climb into a more significant role if there are more in-game injuries. It’s a long shot, but he does have a path to relevancy for Sunday.
Fades
Marques Valdes-Scantling ($6,200) - Considering that Marques Valdes-Scantling is the only Chiefs WR at the moment who doesn't have a red tag by his name, indicating injury, it’s safe to say he’ll be a popular target for DFS this week. Valdes-Scantling has never been a receiver to trust and he’s rarely put together big back-to-back performances. In fact, of the six instances in which he’d posted 100 yards or more in a game, prior to last week, Valdes-Scantling has never surpassed 55 yards in the game following that breakout — and two of those games involved him getting less than 20 yards. The Eagles defense was first in defensive DVOA against the pass and will be able to hone in on Valdes-Scantling this week, especially if the Chiefs’ other receivers are limited or miss the game. At high ownership levels, Valdes-Scantling sets up as a perfect fade candidate for Super Bowl week.
Harrison Butker ($4,000) - The Eagles DST makes Butker a solid fade this week at potentially high ownership as they’ve given up the fewest FG attempts per game. Philly is a very good first-quarter team and has averaged 10.3 points in the first frame over their last three games, which is tops in the league. If KC gets behind, Butker has a better chance of being iced out by a game plan that involves going for TDs late versus settling for three points. Fade a good kicking performance by Butker and look for leverage with the higher variance plays in this range.
THE OUTCOME
The Eagles’ easy schedule has hidden the fact that they are clearly the better team with fewer injuries and the potential to dominate this game in all facets.
For DFS purposes, this matchup has more blowout potential than people realize, and big days on the ground for multiple Philadelphia rushers are possible. The Chiefs lack explosiveness at WR and that seems likely to shine through more than ever this week.
Look for Philadelphia to win going away and bring home their second Lombardi Trophy in five years.
Final Score: Philadelphia 31, Kansas City 21
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $6M Super Bowl LVII Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Super Bowl)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.