As usual, the NBA is offering up a sizable slate of games on Wednesday. There are nine games to choose from, and the main slate on DraftKings gets underway at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite plays at each position.
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Guard
Studs
Tyler Herro, Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers ($7,500) – Wednesday’s slate features nine games to choose from, but to be honest, there aren’t a ton of teams popping as values. The Heat are an exception. They’re dealing with a few key injuries. Both Kyle Lowry and Victor Oladipo have already been ruled out. They also draw an elite matchup vs. the Pacers, who rank second in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency. The Heat have played at one of the slowest paces this season, so this is one of the biggest pace-up spots possible.
Herro stands out as one of their top options. He’s played at least 38.5 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s racked up at least 41.25 DKFP in both contests. He’s also been an excellent source of value in seven games without Lowry this season, averaging just under 40 DKFP per game. Overall, he’s one of the strongest backcourt options on the slate.
Jordan Poole, Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers ($7,100) – Poole is coming off 46 DKFP in his last outing, and he did it in just 29.3 minutes. The Warriors were able to make quick work of the Thunder, and Poole was extremely efficient with his playing time.
With Steph Curry still sidelined, Poole is simply too cheap at $7,100. He’s seen a 6.1 percentage-point usage bump in 16 games without Curry this season, resulting in an average of 37.77 DKFP per game. He should see closer to 36 minutes if Wednesday’s game vs. the Blazers is more competitive, and he has the potential to do plenty of damage with that much playing time.
Other Options – Fred VanVleet ($9,100), Mike Conley ($5,900)
Value
Gabe Vincent, Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers ($4,300) – Vincent is not the most appealing DFS option from a per-minute perspective. He’s averaged a pedestrian 0.71 DKFP per minute this season, but he should be able to return value through sheer volume on Wednesday. He logged more than 34 minutes with Lowry and Oladipo out of the lineup on Saturday, and it’s hard to find someone with so much playing time upside at such a cheap salary.
Vincent wasn’t super productive in his last outing, finishing with just 17.75 DKFP. However, he has plenty of room for improvement moving forward. Even with that poor performance factored in, Vincent has still averaged 29.08 DKFP per game in six games without Lowry this season. Add in a juicy matchup vs. the Pacers, and this is the perfect spot for him to bounce back.
Other Options – Eric Gordon ($5,400), Jaden Hardy ($4,200)
Forward
Studs
Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers ($8,100) – Butler is another potential stud option to consider for the Heat. He’s not that much more expensive than Herro, and he’s capable of dominating games in a variety of ways. He’s increased his usage rate by 1.4 percentage points in games without Lowry, and he’s also a threat as a distributor and on the boards.
Butler has also been priced down to $8,100, which is historically a very low number for him. He’s been priced at $8,500 or less on just nine previous occasions this season, including his most recent contest. He racked up 49 DKFP in that outing against a solid Bucks team, and there’s no reason he can’t duplicate those results vs. the Pacers.
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers ($6,500) – Green is not the type of player who is going to benefit from a usage perspective with Curry out of the lineup. However, it does give him a bit more upside in other areas.
Green has also been an excellent value overall of late. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past nine games, including each of his past four. He went off for 46.25 DKFP two games ago, falling one rebound and one assist shy of a triple-double. He followed that up with 34.5 DKFP in just 27.9 minutes in his last contest, so Green has flashed plenty of per-minute upside recently. The Blazers aren’t the best matchup for big men, but they are playing without starting center Jusuf Nurkic. That makes them a bit more appealing than they look on paper.
Other Options – Evan Mobley ($7,200), Gary Trent Jr. ($6,100)
Value
Kelly Olynyk, Utah Jazz vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ($4,700) – The Jazz have played a supersized lineup since Olynyk returned from injury, with Olynyk joining Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler in the starting lineup. That gives them three players at 6-foot-11 or taller in the frontcourt.
Olynyk was limited in his first two games back, but the team has ramped up his minutes over his last two contests. He’s logged 28.2 and 29.9 minutes, and he scored at least 23 DKFP in both contests. Olynyk has averaged 0.91 DKFP per minute for the year, so he should continue to thrive without around 30 minutes of playing time. If Jarred Vanderbilt (questionable) is ruled out once again, there should be more than enough minutes to go around for the Jazz’s remaining big men.
Other Options – Chris Boucher ($4,400), Jonathan Kuminga ($3,800), Haywood Highsmith ($3,300)
Center
Stud
Mason Plumlee, Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards ($6,600) – Most people are not looking to target Plumlee on most slates, which has caused him to be undervalued for most of the year. He’s an excellent per-minute producer, averaging 1.22 DKFP per minute over the past month, and he’s been locked into 30-32 minutes on most nights. That’s a great formula for production, and Plumlee has responded by exceeding salary-based expectations in 10 of his past 15 games.
That said, Plumlee’s price tag has remained stagnant, and he draws a strong matchup Wednesday vs. the Wizards. They allow the 11th-most points in the paint per game, which is where Plumlee does most of his damage. As long as he gets to his usual 30 minutes, there’s no reason he should fail in this spot.
Other Options – Joel Embiid ($11,500; questionable), Bam Adebayo ($8,900)
Value
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ($5,700) – Kessler’s price tag has dipped to $5,700, and that is simply too cheap for the rookie big man. He’s not playing quite as many minutes as he did when Olynyk was sidelined, but he’s still played at least 25.1 minutes in three of four games since Olynyk returned. That’s more than enough playing time for Kessler to return value. He’s averaged 1.25 DKFP per minute over the past month, and he’s done his best Rudy Gobert impression for most of the season. He’s averaged 10.6 points, 9.7 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game in 18 contests as a member of the starting unit, and he’s done it on just 25.8 minutes per game.
The fact that the Jazz were able to get this guy, Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, four additional first-round picks and one pick swap in exchange for Gobert is ridiculous. It’s obviously early, but with Kessler thriving and Gobert struggling in Minnesota, this could go down as a massive coup.
Other Options – Drew Eubanks ($4,200), Mark Williams ($3,300)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.