Well, it’s March. A month known for its basketball madness, but not necessarily at the professional level. Let’s be honest: March is a weird month in the NBA. With roughly 20 games left in the regular season, we’re still pretty far away from the playoffs, but deep enough into the campaign that there are few surprises left. Uh oh. Did I just accidentally describe marriage?
Let’s change the subject. Values. Here are some values for tonight’s nine-game slate.
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C Marvin Bagley III, Detroit Pistons vs. Chicago Bulls, $4,900
The Pistons have a type: Distressed big men who also happen to be former lottery picks. However, while James Wiseman ($4,800) is the new shiny toy in Motown, it’s Bagley that’s recently caught my attention. Last week, the forward returned from a 20-game injury absence, but didn’t need any time to shake off the rust, collecting 21 points and 18 rebounds in 27.6 minutes against the Raptors. He’d follow that performance up with 21 points and 12 rebounds in 24.5 minutes versus the Hornets on Monday. Two appearances. Two double-doubles. That’s the kind of consistency I can get behind. It’s also very appealing that Bagley’s usage rate was over 33.0% in both contests. Specific to this evening, the Bulls present a very tough matchup, as the team posted the league’s second-best defensive rating in February. Still, with Isaiah Stewart (hip) and Jalen Duren (ankle) unavailable, there’s no reason to stop riding Bagley.
PG/SG Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder, $3,800
The heading here might say “Austin Reaves” but you can pretty much insert any Lakers asset aside from Anthony Davis ($10,200) and it still makes sense. Los Angeles comes into Wednesday night likely missing a couple major rotation pieces with LeBron James (foot) already ruled out and D’Angelo Russell ($6,300; ankle) doubtful to suit up. That obviously opens the door to a lot of potential value. Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,900), Malik Beasley ($4,500) and Troy Brown Jr. ($3,600) should all be in the Lakers’ starting five with a price tag below $5K, while Lonnie Walker IV ($3,300) is also interesting after scoring 21 points with a 33.0% usage rate against Memphis on Tuesday. However, I personally think it’s Reaves who has the best mix of floor and ceiling on this roster. Reaves has managed to exceed 30.0 DKFP twice in his last three games and I’d expect the good times to continue in a very soft matchup. The Thunder have allowed the third-most DKFP per contest to opposing shooting guards in 2022-23.
PF/C Jaxson Hayes, New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers, $3,000
This is a situation you’re going to have to monitor, which is going to be difficult, as it’s the lone game with start time past 8:00 p.m. ET on this entire slate. Still, the state of the Pelicans’ roster could be the key to DFS on Wednesday night — they’re that beat up. Zion Williamson (hamstring), Larry Nance Jr. (ankle) and Jose Alvarado (leg) have already been ruled out for this contest, while both Jonas Valanciunas ($6,500; calf) and Josh Richardson ($5,400; quad) are currently questionable. As you can imagine, there are a lot of ripple effects here. If Valanciunas sits, it should open the door for both Hayes and Willy Hernangomez ($3,800) to play massive minutes in New Orleans’ frontcourt, with the former’s bare minimum salary obviously being of some appeal. If Richardson ends up in street clothes, it’s suddenly the duo of Trey Murphy III ($4,000) and Naji Marshall ($3,400) that jump to the forefront of the value scene. Be prepared to go in either direction and hopefully we get some clarity prior to lock.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $400K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.