The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play is upon us once again. The event pits 64 of the world’s best players against each other in match play format over five days, ending with an eventual final match on Sunday. The tournament begins on Wednesday with round-robin play which lasts the first three days. Winners advance to play in the final 16, which begins Friday. The semi-finals and finals are both played on Sunday.
The event once again has a great turnout in terms of players, with Justin Thomas being the only top-ranked PGA pro who is skipping this week. Justin Suh was the last man who officially qualified for this event and is officially the 64 seed. The bracket for the event has been released now and can be found on the PGA TOUR’s Twitter account here.
The Course
Austin Country Club — Austin, Texas
Par 71, 7,103 yards
Austin Country Club is hosting this event for the fifth year. It’s a Pete Dye-designed course that measures in quite short at just over 7,000 yards for a par 71 and has a nice blend of longer holes with tough approaches, featuring some quite scorable setups, as well.
The course is a mix of higher-elevation holes on the front and a flatter back nine that brings water in to play late in the round, playing across from Lake Austin. All three of the par 5s are quite reachable, and it’s no shock that some big hitters — such as Bubba Watson, Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson — have been able to blow the doors off this course at times in the last couple of years. That said, the final at Austin in 2019 was between Kevin Kisner and Matt Kuchar — two guys who consistently rank outside the top 100 in driving distance — so big distance isn’t really necessary for success this week. Of the past five winners, two have been relatively shorter hitters (Horschel and Kismer), and four of the past five winners have been players in their mid to late 30s.
A drivable par 4 over water also awaits players near the end of the round on Austin CC, and the risk-reward nature of several holes has seemingly made it a great spot for a match-play event. Since it’s located in Texas, the wind is almost certain to be a factor for a day or two (this year’s forecast is below), and blustery conditions also give an edge to players with great short games.
The par 3s are all quite short, with three of them holding yardages between 175 and 200 yards. While there are several short par 4s on the course, there are also four that range between 450 and 500 yards. Checking the approaches and efficiency rankings between those two yardages isn’t a terrible idea this week.
Overall, the shorter venue is set up to allow players with good iron play and putters to compete against those who have more power off the tee. Last season, both Corey Conners and Kevin Kiser advanced to the semi-finals despite being the 29 and 36 seeds, respectively. The venue has helped create some huge upsets over the past few seasons, and we’ve almost always had an unfamiliar name or two reach at least the quarterfinal stage.
2023 Outlook: The weather early in the week looks like it could be a factor. Both Wednesday and Thursday have winds that will likely gust past 10 mph for most of the day. Thursday also has a small chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, which could potentially even halt play for a while. The extra wind and poorer playing conditions likely are a benefit to the elite around the green players and putters. The weather looks like it clears up over the weekend, so whoever is left standing Saturday and Sunday will probably have a softer course which will yield plenty of birdies. The gusts seem likely to contribute to more upsets happening, so don’t be afraid to target players outside the top 20 this week.
Last Five winners
2022—Scottie Scheffler (d. Kevin Kisner)
2021—Billy Horschel (d. Scottie Scheffler)
2020—No event (COVID-19)
2019—Kevin Kisner (d. Matt Kuchar)
2018—Bubba Watson (d. Kevin Kisner)
Winners Trend: Going back to 2013, five of the last nine winners of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play had already recorded a stroke-play win in the same calendar year prior to winning this event, and the other winners (Horschel in 2021, Jason Day in 2014 and Kuchar in 2013) had at least one top-five finish on the season.
Match-Play Scoring and Strategy
I’ve placed the basic format for match-play scoring below, and it can also be found here. Since the actual stroke count is irrelevant this week, we’ll be relying on a player’s ability to win or halve (tie) holes and matches to get points. Essentially, it comes down to the more holes and matches your player wins — and the larger the margin of victory — the more points you’ll get.
The early rounds are matches that take place in 16 four-person “pods.” As such, targeting some more elite players in weaker pods with easy early matchups could be key this week and a way to rack up points early; blowouts will be very valuable in terms of getting fantasy points.
Per Hole Scoring
HOLES WON +3 PTS
HOLES HALVED +0.75 PTS
HOLES LOST -0.75 PTS
HOLES NOT PLAYED +1.6 PTS
MATCHES WON +5 PTS
MATCHES HALVED +2 PTS
Streaks & Bonuses Points
STREAK OF 3 CONSECUTIVE HOLES WON IN MATCH {MAX 1 PER ROUND} +5 PTS
NO HOLES LOST IN THE MATCH BONUS +7.5 PTS
Match-Play Specialists
1. Kevin Kisner ($7,600; best finish: win-2019): Kisner has more than proven himself in a match-play format. He won this event when it was played in 2019 and reached the finals again last year (for the third time in his career). Kisner carries an insane 22-7-2 singles record into the 2023 event but will be battling poor recent form in his quest for yet another deep run.
2. Scottie Scheffler ($7,600; best finish: win-2022): Scheffler’s already proven to be a near-impossible opponent to take down in this format. The American has an 11-2-2 record in match play and blasted Jon Rahm 4&3 in his only Ryder Cup appearance to date. After starting 2023 on another heater, he’s the class of this field once again.
3. Billy Horschel ($8,800; best finish: win-2021): Horschel enters this year’s match-play event with a 13-7-2 lifetime singles record. Horschel has shown huge promise at this event the last two seasons by both winning the event in 2021 and also winning his pod in 2022. He’s been up and down in 2023 thus far but is once again a good target for DFS this season.
4. Tyrrell Hatton ($9,100; best finish: T9-2022): Hatton has a solid record at this event. He’s won his pod twice now, including last season when he went 3-0 in pod singles play. Considering the scorching recent form he’s shown, Hatton makes for a very solid and likely popular pick for this week’s event.
5. Adam Scott ($7,600; best finish: T9-2022): Scott may not have a dominant singles record, but he does have loads of match-play experience in both this event and the President’s Cup. The Aussie has 23 lifetime singles wins in match play and won his pod for the first time in his career at this event last season.
Recent Form
1. Patrick Cantlay ($10,700, Recent finishes: T19-T4): Cantlay couldn’t do enough to get himself in contention at the PLAYERS, but his T19 finish there represented his best finish ever at the event. He’s been rolling of late with two top-five finishes in his last three starts.
2. Max Homa ($10,100, Recent finishes: T6-T14): Homa continued to impress at Sawgrass. The American finished 6th at the PLAYERS (a career best) and gained over 4.8 strokes on approach for the second straight event.
3. Jason Day ($9,100, Recent finishes: T19-T10): Day comes into this week ranked 2nd in strokes gained putting and 3rd in strokes gained around the green stats over the last 24 rounds. He’s finished in the top 20 in six straight events.
4. Viktor Hovland ($9,600, Recent finishes: 3rd-T8): Hovland had a nice run in Florida, grabbing a T4 at Bay Hill and a 3rd at the PLAYERS. His approach game is heating up, and he is a player to watch as we head into the spring majors.
5. Adam Svensson ($6,700, Recent finishes: T13-T24): Svensson has produced some good golf of late. The Canadian has gained multiple strokes on approach in three straight events and finished T13 at Sawgrass after leading the event after round two.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Match-Play Format: Don’t over draft players from the same pod or brackets
The strategy this week in DFS obviously differs from a normal stroke-play event in that we are really trying to target players who have a good shot at winning matches and advancing. Therefore, we care more about draws and matchups than things like birdie rates. For strategy purposes, it’s good to know where our players are in the bracket, so we don’t have them running into each other too early — ultimately, we’d like a shot at getting four players into the final four and need to ensure lineups have at least one player rostered from each quadrant.
I’ve also outlined some players to target from each of the four brackets below. In 2021, we had just one top-10 player reach the quarterfinals, so don’t be afraid to leave a bunch of money on the table when making lineups — upsets happen a lot this week.
Bracket One (Pod #9): Jason Day ($9,100)
Day heads into this week’s event budding with confidence. He’s now finished top 20 in six straight events and ranks 2nd in strokes gained putting stats over the last 24 rounds. That’s significant for this week as match play often comes down to who can be the steadiest on the greens. Day’s more than familiar with this format as well, having won this event in 2014 and 2016 — the first year it was played at Austin CC. The Aussie fits the profile of several past winners as he currently ranks as one of the best short-game/putting specialists in the world and is well into his 30s. Collin Morikawa is a tough one-seed, but he’s struggled at times in 2023 and has never run deep in this event. Day will likely be a somewhat chalky pick in classic DFS formats but makes too much sense to avoid this week given the history and solid recent form he brings.
Bracket Two (Pod #10): Harris English ($6,900)
If we’re looking at including a long-shot pick or two in our lineups, then Harris English does make sense to target coming out of the second bracket. The four-time PGA TOUR winner is an elite putter whose ability to get hot on these greens over four or five matches will make him a potentially difficult out. While his long game has been up and down of late, he showed some progress with that part of his game at Bay Hill, where he gained over a stroke off the tee and on approach on his way to a 2nd place finish. English played this event in 2021, so he has some experience and is also blessed with a solid draw that includes Will Zalatoris as his one seed — who has lost multiple strokes ATG and putting in each of his last two starts. English is the kind of longshot who can make a run in match play and, with a solid draw, is a nice value option this week out of pod 10.
Bracket Three (Pod #4): Patrick Cantlay ($10,700)
Cantlay sticks out as a player I’d not want to pick against this week. The seven-time PGA TOUR winner looks absolutely locked in at the moment and has gained over 7.0 strokes ball-striking alone in each of his past three starts. That kind of play will eventually breed confidence in the other parts of his game, including his putter, which he has proven can be a huge weapon for him in the past. Cantlay’s yet to advance from the group stage at this event, but he’s also never posted a record worse than 1-1-1 in four previous appearances — so he has been a little unlucky in that regard. With a weaker group that includes multiple out-of-form players in Brian Harman and KH Lee, Cantlay could find himself in the late stages of this event in a hurry this season.
Bracket Three (Pod #13): Min Woo Lee ($7,600)
Given Rory McIlroy’s poor record at this event, it would not be shocking to see a relative surprise emerge from bracket four. Tyrrell Hatton and Sahith Theegala are two other interesting names of note, but I'll roll with the 24-year-old Min Woo Lee, who is coming off a coming-out party at the PLAYERS, where he finished T6. Lee looked like he might push the eventual winner Scottie Scheffler for a bit, but the Australian still had a solid week posting a top 10 on the tricky Pete course. Now Lee gets another shot at a Pete Dye design and will be going up against a weak number-one seed in Matthew Fitzpatrick, who may potentially be dealing with injury issues. Lee posted a solid 1-1-1 record in his pod last season and comes in flashing extremely good form with his putter. He makes for a sensible mid-tier target out of pod 13.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.