We have roughly three weeks left in the NBA regular season, and there is still plenty to be decided down the stretch. There are another 10 games to choose from on Wednesday, and the DraftKings main slate gets underway at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite plays at each position.
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Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz ($10,500) – The Blazers are one of the few teams in the Western Conference who are not fighting for a playoff spot. They seemingly made the decision to tank over the second half of the year, and they have fallen all the way to the sixth-worst record in the NBA. They’ve lost six straight contests, and things don’t figure to get any better moving forward. They’ll be without Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant on Wednesday, leaving the team without two of their top three players.
Lillard is the last man standing, and he’s going to have to carry a monster workload vs. the Jazz. He’s increased his usage rate by 6.6% with Simons and Grant off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.75 DKFP per minute. That is an elite figure — Luka Doncic has averaged 1.68 DKFP per minute this season — and it’s over a significant sample size of 323 minutes. Add in a juicy matchup vs. the Jazz, and Lillard brings one of the top ceilings on the slate at a slight discount.
Desmond Bane, Memphis Grizzlies vs. Houston Rockets ($7,600) – The big news for the Grizzlies is that Ja Morant is expected to return to the lineup following a nine-game absence. However, it’s still unclear what his role will be. Morant told the coaching staff that he’d be willing to come off the bench, and it’s possible that they take him up on that offer. Regardless, his minutes will almost certainly be limited in his first game back.
Dillon Brooks will also miss Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Rockets due to a suspension, so Bane should continue to carry an expanded workload. He leads the team with a 29.1% usage rate with Brooks and Morant off the floor this season, and he’s averaged 1.26 DKFP per minute in that scenario. The Rockets are also one of the best possible matchups in DFS, ranking 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies are currently implied for 122 points in this matchup, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Other Options – James Harden ($9,600; questionable), Fred VanVleet ($8,600)
Value
Cam Reddish, Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz ($4,500) – Lillard is the clear top target for the Blazers on Wednesday, but he’s not going to be able to do everything by himself. He’s going to need some help, and Reddish stands out as one of the most logical options. His role has been inconsistent since joining the Blazers, but he has seen a nice spike in value whenever Simons has been unavailable. He’s averaged 34.3 minutes and 28 DKFP in seven games without Simons this season, and he racked up 37 DKFP in his only game without Simons and Grant. He should play more than 30 minutes in this spot, making him one of the best value options on the slate.
Other Options – Devonte’ Graham ($5,000), Bruce Brown ($4,400)
Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks vs. San Antonio Spurs ($11,800) – Things have the potential to get really ugly in Milwaukee on Wednesday. The Bucks are taking on the Spurs, pitting arguably the best team in the league against the worst. The Bucks are unsurprisingly listed as massive 18-point favorites, and they lead the slate with an implied team total of 127.75 points. I have been writing about NBA DFS for more than five years, and I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a total that large.
There is a very good chance that Antetokounmpo ends up playing fewer minutes than usual, but his ceiling is still massive. He’s averaged 1.83 DKFP per minute over the past month, and he can easily eclipse 2.00 DKFP per minute vs. the Spurs. They’ve played at the fifth-fastest pace in the league this season, and they’re dead-last in defensive efficiency.
Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks ($8,400) – I don’t normally go out of my way to target players vs. the Knicks. They’re slightly above average in terms of defensive efficiency, and they rank 26th in pace. The Heat are also a slow team, ranking 28th in pace, so this game has the potential to be a rock fight. The total on this contest sits at 224.5 points, which is the second-lowest mark on the slate.
Still, it’s impossible to ignore what Butler has done recently. He is trying to will the Heat into a guaranteed playoff spot, and he’s doing a pretty darn good job of it. They’re just 0.5 games behind the Nets for the No. 6 seed in the East, and they’ve won six of their past nine games. Butler has scored at least 44.25 DKFP in nine of his past 10 contests, including 55 DKFP vs. the Knicks. Overall, his average of 1.37 DKFP per minute over the past month trails only Antetokounmpo among Wednesday’s forwards. This is simply too cheap given his recent production.
Other Options – Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,900), Scottie Barnes ($6,500; questionable)
Value
David Roddy, Memphis Grizzlies vs. Houston Rockets ($3,200) – With Brooks sidelined, the Grizzlies are going to have to go a bit deeper into their rotation vs. the Rockets. Roddy is someone who should help pick up the slack. He’s already carved out a decent role of late, logging at least 20.1 minutes in four of his past six games, and that figure could approach 30 on Wednesday. Roddy has also been extremely productive when on the floor, averaging 0.93 DKFP per minute over the past month. Add it all up, and he’s way too cheap at $3,200.
Other Options – Jaden McDaniels ($5,000), Luke Kennard ($3,800)
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Atlanta Hawks ($7,200) – The Timberwolves are expected to get some much-needed help on Wednesday. Karl-Anthony Towns is expected to return to the lineup after missing the past 52 games, and the timing could not be better. The Timberwolves are holding on to one of the final spots in the Western Conference play-in tournament by a thread, and Towns is arguably their best player.
Still, don’t expect Towns to do too much in his return to the lineup. Anthony Edwards is also questionable, so the team still has plenty of question marks for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Hawks. Fortunately, this is a phenomenal matchup for Gobert on the interior. The Hawks rank 28th in points in the paint allowed per game and 21st in team rebound rate, which are two areas where Gobert excels. He has also seen a nice uptick in production recently, averaging 1.23 DKFP per minute over the past month. Gobert has scored at least 36 DKFP in four of his past six contests, and he’s racked up at least 55.25 in two. He has an excellent ceiling for his price tag in this spot.
Other Options – Nikola Jokic ($11,500), Zach Collins ($6,400)
Value
Bismack Biyombo, Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers ($3,700) – The Suns' roster is pretty depleted at the moment. Kevin Durant remains out, and the team traded away two valuable pieces in Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson to acquire him. Deandre Ayton will also miss his second straight game, opening up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Biyombo started at center in place of Ayton on Monday, and he chipped in 20.5 DKFP in 20.1 minutes. That kind of production seems repeatable vs. the Lakers. Biyombo has averaged 0.93 DKFP per minute this season, and the Lakers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Other Options – Clint Capela ($5,600), Mitchell Robinson ($4,600)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.