Clench your fists and raise them in front of your face. Now extend all your fingers. That is the number of games that have been delivered. This is one for the thinkers and a headache for the lineup tinkerers. Likely forcing more than a few to become drinkers. Although it is almost time to play the sport that is filled with singles and dingers, we are still blessed to be able to roster one Joe Ingles. If you’re a beginner, good luck and hopefully none of your players get injured. For the veteran predictors, take no prisoners and may some of you be the ultimate winners.
IND, MIL, PHI, PHO, SAC and UTA are playing the first game of a back-to-back. CHA and OKC played on Thursday. Joel Embiid ($11,800), James Harden ($9,500), Tyrese Haliburton ($9,400), Kyrie Irving ($9,900), DeMar DeRozan ($8,600) and Scottie Barnes ($6,500) are the only notable players on the injury report. Keep abreast of all the injury news @dklive.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the PHO/SAC game with the highest total at 239. The DET/TOR game has the lowest total at 223.5. There are three double-digit spreads - BOS -12 over IND, TOR -14.5 over DET and MEM -13 over HOU. UTA and POR are home dogs.
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Guard
Studs
Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($6,800) – They call him Hillbilly Kobe for a reason: he can straight-up get buckets. He is not a one-dimensional player, though. We caught a glimpse of his all-around prowess in the final regular season game of 2021: 31 points, 16 rebounds, 10 assists, two steals and a block. Reaves has been an important part of the rotation throughout the entire season, but the role has mainly been a role player off the bench. Two games ago, though, he went for 50.5 DKFP, then Darvin Ham decided to shake up the starting lineup and inserted Reaves. He did not disappoint with 49.5 DKFP. The eye-opening stat recently has been the number of free-throw attempts (13, 9, 18 and 13). That shows his aggressiveness and utilization on offense, as he has the ball in his hands to either get buckets or make plays for others. Now, he’s been red-hot from the field from an efficiency standpoint, so that shouldn’t be expected to continue, but because he contributes across the board, the floor is relatively high and playing time over 30 minutes should be there.
Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings ($9,600) – Booker is one of the elite scorers in the game. Over the last 10 games, he’s put up at least 30 points in all but two with two games over 40. He does contribute in rebounds, assists and steals as well, so the floor is a good one from a DKFP perspective. In that same 10-game time frame, Booker has scored at least 40 DKFP in nine of ten with six over 50 and two with at least 60. Over the last 10 games, the Kings have played at the 11th-fastest pace and have been 29th in defensive rating.
Other Options - De’Aaron Fox ($8,300), Fred VanVleet ($8,700), D’Angelo Russell ($7,400), Tyrese Maxey ($7,000) if Harden and/or Embiid sit, Stephen Curry ($9,700), Zach LaVine ($8,800)
Value
Joe Ingles, Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz ($4,300) – Ingles doesn’t start and his YMCA-esque game will never be on ESPN. He’s been such a solid contributor off the bench for the Bucks, though. He’s not just a spot-up shooter but can navigate pick-and-roll action, and get his own shot while setting up others. Over the last eight games, he’s put up at least 20 DKFP in all with a high of 37.25 DKFP. He’s been playing in the 22 to 27 minutes range. As an added bonus, this will be the first time Ingles will be returning to Utah since being traded away last season.
Other Options - Kris Dunn ($5,500), Malik Monk ($5,000), TJ McConnell ($5,500) if Haliburton is out, Tre Jones ($5,700), Devonte’ Graham ($4,900), Andrew Nembhard ($5,700) if Haliburton is out, Jaden Hardy ($5,600), Svi Mykhailiuk ($3,000) and Bryce McGowens ($3,100) if Rozier and Oubre are out.
Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz ($11,500) – Giannis is averaging a robust 1.77 FP/Min. Over the last month, that number has spiked to 1.86! He has the highest floor/ceiling projection on the slate and, while the Bucks are favored by 9 points over the Jazz, Utah is at home where they play much better and the altitude can affect visiting teams. Hopefully, the Jazz can keep this competitive because they have been playing at the 2nd-fastest pace over the last 10 games and have been 16th in defensive rating. If Giannis gets the full allotment of minutes, he will likely be the highest raw points scorer on the slate.
Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons ($9,300) – Siakam started the season like a Tasmanian Devil with its butt on fire. As the season has progressed, the production has dissipated and been inconsistent. Has he been getting worn down from playing a heavy dose of minutes on a nightly basis? Possibly. That said, that’s the main reason why I like him tonight. There are many blowout scenarios tonight, and this game is one of them but, rain or shine, blowout or not, Nick Nurse plays his guys, so I feel confident that Siakam will get close to a full plate of run. He has also been on a bit of a heater recently, putting up 57, 44, 49 and 57.5 DKFP over the last four contests.
Other Options - Keldon Johnson ($7,900), Jalen Williams ($6,800), Kristaps Porzingis ($9,000), Tobias Harris ($6,200)
Value
David Roddy, Memphis Grizzlies vs. Houston Rockets ($3,500) – The floor is low for Roddy, as he could score single-digit DKFP. There is upside to go 10x, though, something he’s done twice in the last seven games. Since entering the rotation seven games ago as a rotation piece, he’s played over 20 minutes in five of those contests. He’s averaged 0.92 FP/Min. With the Grizzlies favored by 13 points, a few extra minutes could be on the menu.
Other Options - Deni Avdija ($5,900), Simone Fontecchio ($4,400), Isaiah Livers ($5,000)
Center
Studs
Brook Lopez, Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz ($7,000) – Lopez is coming off a 17 DKFP game. Have no fear, though, as he only played 25 minutes due to the Bucks defeating the Spurs by 36 points. In the prior six games, Lopez put up at least 40 DKFP in all with a high of 63 DKFP. He’s truly been a revelation this season, as he’s missed only two games and is second in blocks per game. Lopez has exceeded points expectations 70% of the time this season. The last time he faced the Jazz, he went for 35.5 DKFP, but that was in only 26 minutes as the Bucks won by 26 points. Milwaukee is favored by 9 points tonight, so a blowout is well within the range of outcomes, but the Jazz could keep it somewhat close despite being without Lauri Markkanen.
Jakob Poeltl, Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons ($7,200) – Over the last six games, Poeltl has gone for at least 40 DKFP in four of them. In the other two, he put up 31 and 31.25 DKFP. The matchup is a good one as the Pistons have struggled against centers, boosting the FPPM by 10.02% above league average.
Other Options - Alperen Sengun ($7,000), Christian Wood ($6,900), Nikola Vucevic ($8,500), Domantas Sabonis ($10,100)
Value
Nick Richards, Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks ($5,100) – Due to the injury to Mark Williams, Richards has started the last six games. The playing time and production have been all over the map, with a floor of 5.5 DKFP in 13 minutes to a ceiling of 42.5 DKFP in 32 minutes. The Hornets just extended Richards for three years and $15 million, so they’ve been happy with his play and believe in his long-term prospects. The minutes should be there as long as he stays out of foul trouble. On the season, Richards is averaging 1.04 FP/Min.
Other Options - Al Horford ($5,600), Kevon Looney ($5,200), Paul Reed ($4,100) if Embiid is out
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.