We’re getting down to the nitty-gritty, with less than two weeks left in the NBA regular season. There are another 10 games slated for Wednesday, and the action on DraftKings kicks off at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite plays at each position.
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Guard
Studs
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Detroit Pistons ($10,100) – SGA missed Tuesday’s loss vs. the Hornets, and his status for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Pistons is currently unknown. However, the Thunder currently find themselves in a position they never expected to be in this season: contending for the playoffs. They’re currently holding the final spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament, but their position is precarious. They’re tied with the 11th-place Mavericks, so they’re going to need to keep winning ball games. There’s no guarantee that the Thunder even want to make the play-in tournament, but it would be a nice reward for a young team that has played hard all season.
If SGA is able to return, he should step right back into his usual massive role. He’s blossomed into one of the best fantasy point guards in the league this season, averaging 1.40 DKFP per minute. He also draws an outstanding matchup vs. the Pistons, who rank merely 28th in defensive efficiency.
Mikal Bridges, Brooklyn Nets vs. Houston Rockets ($7,600) – Losing Kevin Durant – and, to a lesser extent, Kyrie Irving – was obviously a huge blow for the Nets. Their “Big Three” was expected to contend for championships, but that never materialized in Brooklyn.
Fortunately, it seems like the Nets got a really good consolation prize in Bridges. He was limited to being a 3-and-D wing during his tenure with the Suns, but he’s proven there’s a lot more to his game in Brooklyn. He’s thrived as one of the team’s primary scoring threats, averaging 1.14 DKFP per minute over the past month. Bridges has chipped in at least 27 points in three straight games, and he’s scored at least 41.5 DKFP in each.
Two of those contests came in tough matchups against the Heat and Cavaliers, so Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Rockets should be a walk in the park. They play significantly faster than both of those squads, and they’re just 29th in defensive efficiency. The Nets are currently implied for 119.75 points, which represents a significant increase from their season average of 113.4.
Other Options – Ja Morant ($9,000), Shaedon Sharpe ($6,700)
Value
Devonte’ Graham, San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz ($4,400) – The Spurs are one of many teams limping toward the finish line, and they’ll be without a host of key contributors on Wednesday. Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Jeremy Sochan have all been ruled out, opening up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster.
Graham should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He leads the team with a 24.6% usage rate with all three players off the floor, and he’s averaged 0.99 DKFP per minute over the past month. He should provide tremendous value if he moves into the starting lineup, but he still has plenty of appeal even if he comes off the bench. The Spurs should be able to score some points against the Jazz, who rank 24th in defensive efficiency.
Other Options – Keon Johnson ($5,000), Alex Caruso ($3,300; questionable)
Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers ($11,600) – Antetokounmpo missed the Bucks’ last contest, and they were able to cruise to an easy victory without him. Giannis is probable to return to the lineup for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Pacers, and it seems like it could be Khris Middleton’s turn to rest. He’s been downgraded to questionable after carrying the team’s offense sans Giannis and Jrue Holiday on Monday.
Giannis has played limited minutes for much of the past month, but he has been as dominant as ever when on the floor. He’s averaged 1.85 DKFP per minute, which is the top mark among Wednesday’s players. There’s no guarantee that he sees significant minutes vs. the Pacers, but he should do massive damage when he’s on the floor. The Bucks rank second on the slate with an implied team total of 124.25 points, and he should be even more productive than usual if Middleton is ruled out.
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks ($5,600) – On the other side of that matchup, the Pacers will be rolling out their B squad vs. the Bucks. Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, and Chris Duarte have already been ruled out, while Myles Turner is currently listed as questionable. Turner has missed the past two games with an ankle injury, and it would be pretty shocking if he returns to the lineup. The team is clearly playing for draft position at this point, so there’s no need to risk their talented big man.
With all those options on the bench, Mathurin is going to have to pick up the slack. He’s been extremely active offensively with Haliburton, Hield, Duarte, and Turner off the floor this season, increasing his usage rate to 33.0%. He’s averaged 1.08 DKFP per minute in that scenario, and he played more than 38 minutes in their last contest. The Pacers lost that game by 23 points, so his minutes should be pretty safe even in a blowout.
Other Options – Jalen Williams ($7,200)
Value
Nassir Little, Portland Trail Blazers vs. Sacramento Kings ($5,100) – The Blazers are yet another squad that is mailing in the end of the regular season. They’re going to be without Damian Lillard for the rest of the year, and Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Jusuf Nurkic have also been ruled out vs. the Kings. Cam Reddish and Trendon Watford are also doubtful, so they’re going to be extremely shorthanded on Wednesday.
Little was the team’s first-round pick in 2019, and he’s been given an opportunity to spread his wings a bit recently. He was phenomenal Sunday vs. the Thunder, racking up 36.0 DKFP across 31.4 minutes off the bench, and he moved into the starting lineup in their last game. He wasn’t nearly as impressive in that contest, but he still posted a respectable 24.2% usage rate. The Kings have been defensively challenged all season despite their great record, so this is an excellent bounce-back spot for Little.
Other Options – Keita Bates-Diop ($4,800), Kevin Knox ($4,200)
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Dallas Mavericks ($11,000) – Embiid’s status for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Mavericks is currently unknown. He was unable to suit up for Monday’s matchup vs. Nikola Jokic, and given everything we know about Embiid, you have to imagine that was tough for him. The only way he’d miss a matchup vs. the back-to-back MVP is if he was actually hurt, so there’s no guarantee he returns to the lineup on Wednesday.
That said, Embiid is clearly worth considering if he’s back in the lineup. He’s the only player in the league who has rivaled Giannis on a per-minute basis recently, averaging 1.78 DKFP per minute over the past month.
There’s also a chance that Embiid suits up without James Harden, who also missed Monday’s matchup vs. the Nuggets. That would make Embiid an even stronger option. He’s been phenomenal in 15 games without Harden this season, averaging 57.22 DKFP in 33 minutes per game.
Other Options – Nikola Vucevic ($7,900), Zach Collins ($6,400)
Value
Drew Eubanks, Portland Trail Blazers vs. Sacramento Kings ($4,700) – Eubanks is probably the strongest option for the Blazers on Wednesday. He’s been an excellent fantasy producer when given the chance to play big minutes, and he’s increased his production to 0.97 DKFP per minute over the past month. He should see around 30 minutes if Wednesday’s contest is competitive, and the Kings represent an outstanding matchup. They rank 11th in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency, so Eubanks stands out as one of the best values of the day.
Other Options – Jalen Duren ($5,100), Sandro Mamukelashvili ($4,600)
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.