Ten. That’s how many games we have Friday. After last night’s four-gamer, the DK streets are filled with players jumping for joy like hens when the seeds are thrown into the pen. Let us enter a state of zen, thank the gods, then conclude with a heartfelt amen. May you select the right men, taking you to the heights of a shoryuken from Ryu and Ken.
ATL, MIA, MIN and SAC are playing the first game of a back-to-back. GS and LAC played Thursday. Jimmy Butler ($8,900) and De’Aaron Fox ($9,100) are the notable players who are questionable. Keep abreast of all the injury news @dklive.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the POR-ATL with the highest total at 239.5. The NYK-MIA game has the lowest total at 215.5. The Celtics are the biggest favorites by 10.5 points over the Nets while the UTA-OKC has the tightest spread at two points, in favor of Utah. CHA, CHI, MIA, OKC and LAL are home dogs.
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Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks ($11,600) – Lillard truly has been on one recently. Over the last seven games, he’s gone for at least 50 DKFP in six of those contests, with two over 60 and a high of 93. The Warriors were the only ones to hold him to under 50 DKFP when they utilized the box-and-one defense in the second half. I don’t think the Hawks employ a similar tactic. They could, but Lillard and the Blazers will likely have some wrinkles to combat it going forward, and the Hawks are not as good of a defensive team as the Warriors. Golden State is 16th in defensive rating while Atlanta is 21st. With Anfernee Simons doubtful for this one, Lillard should see a sky-high usage rate. It’s been over 35% in four of the last five games with two at 44.5% and 53.2%.
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets ($8,700) – Brown is coming off a 25.75-DKFP game. That was vs. the Cavaliers, who are eigth in defensive rating over the last 10 games. The Nets? 26th over the same period. Brown averages 1.2 DKFP, and I expect a bounce-back performance for him in this one, maybe even a 50-burger.
Other Options - Josh Giddey ($7,900), Dejounte Murray ($7,900), Russell Westbrook ($7,100)
Value
Immanuel Quickley, New York Knicks at Miami Heat ($4,700) – Quickley doesn’t start and will rarely receive over 30 minutes of run. When he’s on the court, though, he tries to tickle the twine as if his life depended on it. He is the microwave off the bench for the Knicks and has scored double-digit points in nine straight. He’s put up at least 20 DKFP in each of the last nine games, with three of those over 30.
Other Options - Donte DiVincenzo ($5,700), Marcus Smart ($5,600), Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,100)
Forward
Studs
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets ($10,600) – There’s blowout risk for this game, as the Celtics are favored by 10.5 points. If that scenario manifests, though, both Brown and Tatum will have likely had a big hand in it. Against the Pistons five games ago, the Celtics dispatched of the Pistons fairly easy and won by 18 points. Tatum put up 60.75 DKFP in that one. He averages 1.39 DKFP per minute and contributes a little something in every category. He’s gone over 60 DFKP in three of the last five games.
Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder ($9,600) – Both the Jazz and Thunder have been top 10 in offensive pace over the last 10 games. They have also been 21st and 23rd in defensive rating, respectively, so there should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodies. The usage rate has been in the 28-30% range over the last 20 games or so for Markkanen, and he’s gone for at least 43 DKFP in five of the last six games, with a high of 59.5, which happened to come vs. the Thunder.
Other Options - Julius Randle ($9,700), Brandon Ingram ($8,600), Jalen Williams ($6,800)
Value
Matisse Thybulle, Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks ($4,000) – Thybulle is a low-usage player who is offensively challenged. He is a savant on the defensive end of the court, though. Since arriving in Portland, he’s racked up 11 steals and eight blocks in six games. He has scored double-digit points in three of those contests, so he’s not a complete zero. From a DKFP perspective, he’s put up at least 20 DKFP in four games, with two above 30 and a high of 39, so there is the potential of ceiling if things break right. The most important numbers are the playing time. He’s received at least 25 minutes in every game, with three above 30 and 38 minutes in the most recent contest. Minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe!
Other Options - Cam Johnson ($5,500), Lu Dort ($5,500), Kyle Anderson ($5,400)
Center
Studs
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies ($11,800) – Jokic averages a ridiculous 1.69 DKFP per minute. He’s a threat to triple-double on any given night and has 90 DKFP upside. Really, the only things that slow him down are foul trouble, boredom, injury and blowout. In two of the last three games, he’s played only 28 and 27 minutes due to a 21-point win vs. Houston and an 18-point loss vs. the Grizzlies. That game was played in Memphis, though, while tonight’s contest is in Denver. The Nuggets are favored by 5.5 points in this one.
Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings vs. Los Angeles Clippers ($10,100) – There is some uncertainty regarding this game because it’s the second leg of a back-to-back for the Clippers, so some players from the Los Angeles side could be sitting. In addition, Sabonis isn’t cheap, but he is in a good spot. Los Angeles has boosted the FPPM to centers by 9.12% above league average this season, and Sabonis has gone for at least 40 DKFP in all three meetings vs. the Clippers. Ivica Zubac did not play on Thursday and could miss Friday’s contest, as well. If so, then Sabonis will be matched up against Mason Plumlee, who is one of the poorer defenders at the position.
Other Options - Walker Kessler ($6,900), Mark Williams ($6,300)
Value
Clint Capela, Atlanta Hawks vs. Portland Trail Blazers ($5,600) – Capela was averaging around 26-27 minutes per game this season. Then he received 35 minutes in Quin Snyder’s first game as head coach and put up 47.75 DKFP. Whether that becomes the New World Order remains to be seen, but all we can do is go with what we know. Capela averages 1.15 DKFP per minute, and minutes are what, class? That’s right, they are half the battle.
Other Options - Robert Williams ($5,100), Mitchell Robinson ($5,100), Mason Plumlee ($5,000)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.