Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets, Values for March 4

Saturday Night NBA DFS features a full-size slate this weekend. It’s a good one and you’re going to need a lot of screens. Let’s dig into some research and make some picks, as we gear up for the five-game main slate that starts at 7:30 p.m. ET.

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Guard

Studs

De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, $9,100 — Keep a close eye on the injury report. Fox returned to action Friday (33 points, seven rebounds and seven assists), but he missed the previous game. He should be back in the lineup Saturday but it’s a back-to-back. Before missing Tuesday’s game, Fox scored a massive 77.25 DKFP in a double-OT win over the Clippers last Friday and followed that with 53.25 DKFP on Sunday. He is on fire and this is an appealing DFS matchup — The Timberwolves have a 103 in Pace (8th).

Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons, $9,300 — His minutes projection is through the roof, now he just has to do something with the minutes (35 projected minutes). Mitchell is one of the few players on tonight’s slate with an elite level usage rate — 31.6%. The Pistons present an appealing matchup with a 115.7 Defensive Efficiency Rating (28th) and an above-average 102.3 in Pace (13th). The problem is that it may be too appealing of a matchup. There is blowout concerns but often those fears are overblown. The star does the blowing out and remains in the game in the fourth quarter because no lead is safe in the NBA — or at least that’s the belief of NBA coaches.

Value

Caris LeVert, Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons, $3,900 — Among the point-per-dollar picks on tonight’s slate, he is one of the best options. The Cavaliers are expected to be one of the highest scoring teams on the slate with 117 points and they should cruise past the Pistons 28th-ranked defense (Cavs -14). There should be plenty of extra court time available for the Cavs’ second unit. LeVert has played over 28 minutes in four of the last five games. In those four contests, he scored 20.5, 26, 21.75 and 22 DKFP. It doesn’t take much to hit at this price.

Cory Joseph, Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, $3,200 — The Pistons have battled injuries all season. Add one more to the list on Saturday. With Bojan Bogdanovich out, the Pistons have eight players that can contribute. Joseph is a part of that eight. On Mar. 1, he played 25 minutes and scored 18 DKFP. He played 28 minutes in the game before that (7.75 DKFP). His shooting has been terrible, but that’s Cory Joseph. SG Alec Burks ($4,100) is a safer play if the salary is available. They’re the same play. The Pistons bench could get extra minutes and a usage increase with some second stringer stepping out of the second unit to start for Bogdanovich.

Devonte’ Graham, San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets, $5,500 — Every weekend Graham is featured in the weekend targets article. Whether he starts or not, he produces. Pop immediately took a liking to the new veteran, and he has let Graham ball. With Keldon Johnson ($7,000) out on Thursday, Graham played 32 minutes and scored 35 DKFP. Johnson is doubtful for Saturday’s game. Whether Graham starts or not, he should play close to 30 minutes along with his customary 20% Usage Rate. Also, the Spurs are an up-tempo team (third in pace) and they’re playing one of the worst defenses in basketball.

Forward

Studs

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers, $12,300 — This is a small slate but there is a standout showdown. The stars of the East will be showcased on Saturday night. The No. 1 Bucks face the No. 3 76ers in what could be an Eastern Conference Finals preview. Antetokounmpo has not been close to meeting salary expectations recently, but that’s because the Bucks did not need him. If they want to keep their 16-game win streak alive, then Antetokounmpo will likely need to return to his normal role (38% Usage Rate and 35 MPG) in this matchup.

Value

Hamidou Diallo, Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, $4,500 — The Pistons will be extremely thin on Saturday night. Diallo will likely step into the starting lineup and a larger role. This may not be a good thing. His minutes will likely increase but his usage rate could drop. He’s not a great player to begin with. However, on the short slate all of the available Pistons must be considered. The key word is considered, not mandatory. The Cavs are a tough matchup.

Marvin Bagley III, Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, $4,500 — This a much more pleasant Piston punt. Technically, it’s not a punt, the alliteration was irresistible. The Pistons are thin and grossly undermanned in the front court. This is a very tough matchup and a unique one. The Pistons can’t play small vs. the Cavs. Bagley may slide into a starting role, but at the very least he should see a season high in minutes on Saturday. In the last three games where Bagley played over 25 minutes, he scored 37.5, 46.5 and 38 DKFP.

Center

Studs

Zach Collins, San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets, $6,400 — Last week’s value play is this week’s stud. Following the Jakob Poeltl trade, Collins is averaging 34.6 DKFP in 29.1 MPG for an average return of 6.8x in eight starts. The Rockets present an excellent matchup with a 116.7 Defensive Efficiency Rating (29th) and while their mediocre 102.1 in Pace (14th) isn’t great, the Spurs make up for the Rockets lack of speed by playing at the third-fastest rate. C Charles Bassey ($3,900) is worth a consideration as a punt if the injury report does not open up value options.

Value

James Wiseman, Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, $4,500 — The former No. 2 overall pick gets a try out on Saturday. This is an audition for a superstar role. It’s a small slate, so all eyes will be on Detroit vs. Cleveland (what a world). The Pistons are short-handed and the Cavs have a terrific frontcourt. “What do you got Wiseman?” Everyone knows about his potential, but he lacked opportunities and also failed to execute early in his career. He doesn’t have to be particularly effective against Cleveland. The big man should get 30 minutes or more. He just needs to grab some boards and make enough of his close-to-the-rim looks.

Dean Wade, Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons, $3,000 — This is pushing it, but most teams have yet to release their injury reports. So at the moment, the usual frontcourt value is not apparent. Until the reports are released, Wade is worth a look. The Cavs should throttle the Pistons. This could lead to extended stretches for the second unit. Cavs Coach J.B. Bickerstaff could use this opportunity to stretch out Wade. The Pistons’ frontcourt is thin and not very talented. Wade could easily return value if he gets the minutes. He played 25 minutes in a blowout of the Raptors on Feb. 26.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.