The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
The RBC Heritage is the traditional follow-up event to the Masters. The event takes place on Hilton Head Island, which is just up the road from Augusta and located on the South Eastern coast of the USA in South Carolina. The field often gets watered-down, with several top names wanting to take a break after the first major, but with the Heritage now getting elevated event status (and a 20M prize purse), most of the top names in golf are scheduled to attend in 2023. The field is currently set at 132 golfers (with no alternates allowed), but there have been some withdraws already, including Jason Day, Rory McIlroy and Will Zalatoris (who recently announced that he will miss the rest of the season after undergoing back surgery).
Given the rough conditions last weekend, we could see even more people withdraw as the week progresses, so be sure to keep an eye on the DK Live app for updates. The cut this week for the RBC Heritage will again see the top 65 players and ties making the weekend. For DFS purposes, getting 6/6 players through the cut will undoubtedly be tougher than it was last week in the smaller field.
The Course
Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head, South Carolina
Par 71, 7,099 yards, Greens: TifEagle Bermuda (poa overseed)
Harbour Town Golf Links is one of the more idyllic settings the players visit all year. The course was designed by Pete Dye and has some characteristics about it that make it quite unique, including some of the smallest Bermuda greens on the PGA TOUR (3,700 sq. ft. average) and narrow fairways that make placement off the tee crucial. Missing on the wrong side of the green or fairway can mean getting blocked out of an approach or having little to no chance at an up and down.
The average driving distance of the field at Harbour Town is 10-15 yards less than the average stop on the PGA TOUR, and it is worth noting that two of the past six winners have lost strokes off the tee to the field for the week of their win. Hence, emphasizing distance or SG: OTT stats is generally not a priority this week — although certainly having players with decent driving accuracy or fairways gained stats is a huge plus.
The fact the course is set alongside the water also means wind plays a factor. Cooler and more gusty conditions have kept the scoring higher the past two seasons, and three of the past five winners have now failed to breach the 13-under mark for the week. The weather and small greens also tend to make strokes gained around-the-greens stats more important. Top finishers at Harbour Town have gained more strokes against the field in around-the-green stats than off-the-tee during the lifetime of this event.
As far as setup goes, Harbour Town contains a nice mix of challenging and easier-to-score holes. Two of the par 5s set up well under 550 yards in length and present extremely good birdie and eagle opportunities for the players (assuming their drives find the fairway). The par 4s include four that measure in-between 450-500 yards, with the 18th being one of the toughest of the bunch — as its green has no cover from wind and is set directly alongside the ocean.
Although the par 3s all measure in at a range of just 175-200 yards, a mix of small greens, water hazards, and overhanging trees make them all tough to maneuver. The par 3, 14th is on par with the 17th at Sawgrass in terms of toughness, and how your players navigate these holes will be important in determining whether or not they survive the cut.
2023 Outlook: It doesn’t look like we’ll be getting the sideways rain and terrible cold that affected play last week, but there still are some weather concerns to watch out for at Harbour Town. Thursday starts out well enough, with highs in the 72-75 F range for morning starters who could have a slight advantage. Friday brings in more gusts and also potential rain and thunderstorms, which could slow down play. As of writing, the weather may be worse in the a.m., giving the Thursday a.m./Friday p.m. starters a slight advantage. It’s far too early in the week to lock in any draw biases, so be sure to check the forecast again Wednesday. The weekend looks like much of the same, with winds in the 10-12 mph range and potential thunderstorms on Sunday.
Last Five winners
2022—Jordan Spieth -13 (over Patrick Cantlay playoff)
2021—Stewart Cink -19 (over Harold Varner III -15)
2020—Webb Simpson -22 (over Abraham Ancer -21)
2019—CT Pan -12 (over Matt Kuchar -11)
2018—Satoshi Kodaira -12 (over Si Woo Kim playoff)
Winning Trends
- Eight of the last 11 winners of The RBC Heritage had recorded TWO top-five (or better) finishes worldwide in the year of their victory before their win at Hilton Head.
- Nine of the last 12 winners had recorded a T23 or better in a previous year at this event before winning.
- The winner of The RBC Heritage has played in The Masters the week prior AND missed the cut four times over the last 10 seasons.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
Jordan Spieth (19-under-par—2021)
2021 lead-in form (MC-T35-MC-T26-T60)
SG: OTT—+4.3
SG: APP—+4.8
SG: TTG—+13.3
SG: ATG—+4.2
SG: PUTT—-2.5
- This is very much a second-shot course, so emphasizing approach stats this week is a good idea. 2020 runner-up Abraham Ancer gained an incredible +11.8 strokes on approach here en route to a 21-under par score, while 2021 winner, Stewart Cink, gained +8.5 strokes on approach and led the field in that stat.
- Last season, Jordan Spieth put in another strong tee-to-green performance which exemplified just how important both ball-striking and around-the-green play can be, given that he won the event while losing multiple strokes putting.
- Conversely, driving distance at Harbour Town typically isn’t a huge advantage. Two of the past six winners have lost strokes off the tee here for the week and only one of the past five winners ranked inside the top-20 for SG: Off the Tee stats for the week of their win.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Russell Henley +4500 and $7,800
Comparables:
JT Poston +6500 and $7,300
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Matt Kuchar ($7,700; best finishes: win-2014, 2nd-2019, T3-2022): Kuchar has played here 17 times since 2004 and never missed a cut. He won this event back in 2014 and has also finished second here as recently as 2019. He’s second in strokes gained total stats at this event over the past five years, and finished 3rd in his last start at the Valero.
2. Webb Simpson ($7,400; best finishes: 2nd {playoff loss}-2013, win-2020): In 2020, Webb finally grabbed a win at Harbour Town, a venue that is tailor-made for his game. The veteran has not missed the cut at Harbour Town in 12 straight starts now. His comeback from injury has been slow, but a 7th in his last start the Valspar is promising.
3. Patrick Cantlay ($10,300; best finishes: 2nd-2022; T3-2019): Cantlay has typically excelled at this second-shot Pete Dye design. In three of his five starts at Harbour Town, he’s finished 3rd or better and has a terrific record at Pete Dye venues in general. He’ll be polarizing for DFS, given that his slow play was blamed for deteriorating the pace of the event last week.
4. JT Poston ($7,300; best finishes: T3-2022, T8-2020): Poston has the game to dominate on short, technical tracks. He’s now posted top-10 finishes at Harbour Town in three of the past four seasons. His recent form is also looking better after making the cut last week and posting a T10 at the Valspar.
5. Brian Harman ($7,300; best finishes: T9-2017, T13-2021): Harman continued his solid play at this event/venue last season, making the cut for the fifth time in six seasons. The two-time PGA TOUR winner has posted top-30 finishes at Hilton Head in four of the past six seasons and remains a consistent DFS threat on these shorter setups.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Morikawa and Sungjae Im a nice duo
At the top of the board, you have to love the setup and price for the best iron player in the game Collin Morikawa ($10,000). Morikawa has missed two cuts this season but has finished 13th or better in five of seven starts overall. He’s also finished T7 and T26 at this venue the last two seasons and sets up great for a tougher, second-shot course. Sungjae Im ($8,600) in the mid-8k range should also be considered a great DFS value to build around. His well-rounded game has a better chance to flourish at technical tracks, and he was 6th at the Dye-designed TPC Sawgrass just last month. Other potential targets for this format include Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,400), Russell Henley ($7,800), and Ben Martin ($7,100).
Tournaments: Young and Fleetwood could surprise
Young ($9,600) is the prototypical type of golfer most people like to target at this event, but the 29-year-old has posted strong results on shorter courses, including a T3 at this event last season when he gained over 3.0 strokes around the greens. Young also has former Webb Simpson caddie Paul Tesori on the bag, which should be a huge help this week. Tommy Fleetwood ($8,100) is another low-sentiment candidate to consider lower down. The Englishman wasn’t great at Augusta, but two starts ago was T4. He’s third in overall around the green stats and was T10 at this venue last season. Other potential targets for large field GPPs include Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,100), Min Woo Lee ($7,400), and David Lipsky ($6,500).
Top Recent Form
1. Jon Rahm ($10,100; win-WD-T39): Rahm won the Masters and now has four wins on the PGA in 2023 — and it’s only April. He’s the most dominant player in the world right now, and a little Masters hangover is likely the only thing that holds him back from winning again this week.
2. Scottie Scheffler ($11,000; T10-win): Scheffler posted a solid T10 at Augusta. He’s won twice over his last five starts and will undoubtedly be motivated to get back the number-one ranking from Rahm that he gave up last week.
3. Viktor Hovland ($9,800; T7-T3): Hovland has displayed great form since the start of the Florida swing. Despite a shakey around-the-green game, he’s finished T10 or better in three straight events.
4. Wyndham Clark ($7,600; 6th-5th): Clark has really upped his game in 2023. He’s gained over 3.0 strokes on approach in four of his last five PGA starts and posted top-10 finishes at Punta Cana and the Valspar.
5. Ben Martin ($7,100; T10-T8): Martin is a surprising addition to this list, but the veteran is really coming on of late. He’s posted top-10 finishes in three of his last five starts and gained 9.3 strokes ball-striking at the Valero.
MY PICK: Justin Thomas ($8,900)
Thomas is coming off a disappointing Masters, where he dropped from 2-under par to 4-over par in the span of eight holes to miss the cut. As disappointing as the effort was, Thomas wasn’t playing terrible golf up to that point and had started to show some signs of life in his lead-up. The American and two-time PGA Championship winner had gained over 5.5 strokes tee to green — and over 2.5 strokes on approach — in the three-stroke play events he played prior to Augusta, recording a T10 finish at the Valspar despite losing strokes on the greens. He also ranks first in strokes gained around the green stats over the last 50 rounds of play and has played Harbour Town four times prior, with success, recording four made cuts and a T11 on his debut at the event back in 2015.
Thomas spent most of the weekend lamenting his fate on Twitter and certainly feels like a player who will be happy to get back on the course this week. While his misfortunate on the back nine at Augusta wrecked his chances at chasing a green jacket, it likely helped his chances for a win this week, given that he missed all of the in-climate weather and tough conditions the players had to play through on Sunday. At +2500 on the DraftKings Sportsbook, his odds have ballooned into value territory for outright betting, and at under $9,000 he makes for a great upper-tier, core target to build around in PGA DFS on DraftKings as well.
MY SLEEPER: Brandon Wu ($6,900)
Wu comes into this week rested (he didn’t qualify for the Masters) and in a position to potentially benefit from playing against a tired field. The American has flashed some real upside in his short time on the PGA TOUR, grabbing a 2nd place finish at the very tricky Pebble Beach Pro-Am earlier this year, but also top-8 finishes at the Scottish Open, Mexico Open, Puerto Rico Open and Wyndham Championship last season. His penchant for shorter, more technical courses is really starting to shine through as he also grabbed top 20 finishes at both the PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP and the Honda Classic in March.
Wu has been a little up and down in the output department for fantasy purposes but clearly has talent. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his last six PGA TOUR starts and has gained 4.2 strokes or more on approach in two of his last six starts. As a venue, Harbour Town can be tough on newcomers. However, considering how well Wu handled Pebble Beach and the Dye-designed TPC Sawgrass this season, seeing him have a solid week on another classic setup wouldn't be overly shocking.
As a sub $7,000 GPP option for fantasy lineups, it’s hard to think there is much better upside at his range for larger fields — and for betting, his +650 top 20 odds make him a ripe placement target on the DraftKings Sportsbook as well.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.