Playoffs?! We talkin’ bout playoffs? Indeed we are, although it’s the play-in tournament that constitutes games that are one-off. Thou shall not scoff. Say your thanks that we don’t have to spend good American dollars sweating Jared Goff. At least we are past the pandemic that made us all cough. So good luck tonight on this two-game slate. May you skillfully mine all the treasures like Lara Croft and create lineups of extraordinary magnitude, vaulting you up the leaderboards and making you the ultimate boss.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,600) is the only notable player on the injury report. Keep abreast of all the injury news @dklive.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the ATL/MIA game with a 228 total and MIA is favored by 5.0 points at home. The MIN/LAL game has a 232.5 total with LAL favored by 8.5 points at home.
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Guard
Studs
Tyler Herro, Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks ($6,800) – Herro may not have a better floor/ceiling combo than Trae Young ($10,000), but he’s $3,200 cheaper and could score in a similar range. Anthony Edwards ($9,100) is a very enticing option, especially since Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert are out while Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,600) is questionable. I have concerns with him, though, because the Lakers have been playing excellent defense and held him to 22 DKFP a few weeks ago.
Herro is going to play at least 35 minutes and averages 1.02 DKFP per minute. He does contribute a little something everywhere sans blocks but his ceiling is accessed when he burns the twine. On the season, he’s gone for at least 40 DKFP 28 times with eight of those over 50. Some of those games were without other Heat players in the lineup and, because he’s so dependent on scoring, it’s well within the range of outcomes that he scores in the 20 DKFP range. That said, I’m hoping that the Lakers limit Edwards again while Young scores in the 40 to 50 DKFP range. Hopefully, Herro can get to that 40 DKFP range.
Other Options - Trae Young ($10,000), Mike Conley ($6,900)
Value
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat ($5,200) – Bogdanovic only averages 0.9 DKFP per minute and will likely see around 24 minutes of run. The price isn’t cheap either, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he scores in the teens for DKFP. Out of the lower-priced options, though, he has the most upside. He went for 40.5 DKFP two games ago and replicated the feat five other times this season. I like Bogdanovic because he has large cajones and isn’t afraid of the moment. He never passes up a shot, which can be a good and bad thing. When he gets hot, though, it’s a beautiful site to see. In the playoffs last season, he shot 12-of-18 from the field for 29 points. That’s the ceiling. Just know that he went 0-for-8 and 1-for-6 in two of the other games in that series, so the range of outcomes is wide.
Other Options - Kyle Lowry (4,000)
Forward
Studs
Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks ($9,000) – There are times when Butler is too passive and goes with the flow like a surfer on a wave. When he’s aggressive, though, Butler morphs into a tsunami and wreaks havoc on opposing defenses. In the playoffs, Butler has had his moments as a surfer, but more often than not, he’s been a raging tsunami. Due to his well-rounded game in which he contributes in every category, when Butler is aggressive, shooting shots and getting to the free-throw line, the fantasy goodies rain down from the heavens. In three games against the Hawks this season, he’s gone for 47.75, 44.25 and 49.75 DKFP. He does have 60 DKFP upside, something he’s done four times this season.
Other Options - LeBron James ($10,900), Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,600), Kyle Anderson ($7,600)
Value
Saddiq Bey, Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat ($5,800) – I hate the price but at least the ownership should be very low. The reason I’m going with Bey is because he played 32 and 35 minutes against Miami when these teams met in early March. John Collins ($5,300) only played 16 and 20 minutes so I’m thinking it may be a matchup thing against Butler. Bey averages 0.88 DKFP per minute and went for over 30 DKFP in those two contests.
Center
Studs
Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ($11,200) – Davis is the most expensive player on the slate, but his all-around game and high floor/ceiling combo is too much for me to ignore. In addition, the two best defensive players (Gobert and McDaniels) for Minnesota are out. Over the last nine games, Davis has gone for at least 50 DKFP in seven with three over 60. On the season, he has five games over 70 with two over 80 DKFP.
Other Options - Clint Capela ($6,200)
Value
Onyeka Okongwu, Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat ($5,100) – Okongwu has exceeded points expectations 70% of the time this season. He averages 1.04 DKFP per minute. Unfortunately, he only averages 23.1 minutes per contest. Okongwu truly has been a model of consistency. Over the last 17 games, he’s gone for at least 20 DKFP in all, with three over 30 DKFP.
Other Options - Nathan Knight ($3,900)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.