We’ve got ourselves an exciting 11-game MLB featured slate tonight on DraftKings. There’s aces take the mound, several of the best teams in baseball are in head-to-head matchups and, of course, it’s a Coors Field day. That’s a lot to take in for mid-April.
Fortunately, I’m here to sift through all the noise. Let’s find some studs and values for Tuesday evening.
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PITCHER
Stud
Marcus Stroman, Chicago Cubs at Oakland Atheltics, $8,800 - I’m not quite sure how we got here. Stroman has never been a pitcher that I would consider a strong DFS asset, but through three starts in 2023, there have been some noteworthy improvements. Mainly, it’s a career-best 28.0% strikeout rate, which is likely the result of Stroman’s increased slider usage. The right-hander has also yet to surrender a barrel, as a whopping 69.0% of opponent batted ball events have been ground balls. In fact, the only other qualified starter yet to allow a barrel with a higher strikeout rate than Stroman is Shohei Ohtani. Not bad company. Look for Stroman to continue to roll against the lowly Athletics.
Value
Brad Keller, Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers, $6,600 - Another pitcher with a career-high strikeout rate and a new pitch mix. Through three starts this season, Keller’s heavily cut down on his fastball usage, instead opting to rely on a new curve. It’s hard to argue with the results. Keller’s thrown 72 curveballs in 2023. Opponents have a .264 expected slugging on the offering, and the pitch has an eye-popping 37.2% whiff rate. This will be the second time in a week that the Rangers get to see the new and improved RHP, but considering Keller tossed 6.2 innings of one-run ball against Texas last Wednesday, I’m willing to go back to the well. Especially this far below $7K.
INFIELD
Stud
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, $6,300 - Per usual, Ohtani is one of the most expensive hitters on Tuesday’s slate, yet this seems like the perfect opportunity to pay up for the All-Star. Ohtani’s been amazing through his first 66 plate appearance of 2023, posting a .380 wOBA and a 141 wRC+. He’s also left-handed, which is key in this particular matchup. Clarke Schmidt ($6,300) has been flummoxed by LHBs in his three outings, allowing lefty opponents to slash a ridiculous .433/.500/.767. Yikes.
Stud
Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs at Oakland Athletics, $5,700 - Make no mistake, Swanson’s been a little lucky to have his hot start to the season. He’s hitting the ball well enough, but a BABIP hovering around .500 just isn’t going to sustain itself. Still, his fortune doesn’t necessarily have to change on Tuesday. Ken Waldichuk ($6,100) will be on the mound for Oakland, a man who has already allowed six home runs to opposing RHBs across only three appearances. In 2022, Swanson registered a 137 wRC+ versus LHPs. You can see where I’m going here.
Value
Jeimer Candelario, Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles, $3,400 - I’m hesitant to suggest anyone wearing a Nationals uniform is running hot, but Candelario does have nine hits in his past four games, including four hits and 27.0 DKFP against Cleveland this past Sunday. For the season, in 43 plate appearances against RHPs, Candelario has a downright respectable 146 wRC+. He’d be viable in this spot in even a neutral matchup, yet he’ll get so much more than that on Tuesday, as Dean Kremer ($6,200) has conceded a .445 expected wOBA to left-handed opponents in 2023.
Value
Harold Castro, Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, $2,300 - Castro isn’t going to be your top option at second base on Tuesday, but he’s there if you need him. The 29-year-old has gotten off to a slow start in 2023, yet he’s consistently hit seventh in the Rockies’ lineup when the team faced a right-handed opponent. Vince Velasquez ($6,400) is an RHP. Velasquez has also had some real issues to left-handed hitters. The 30 LHBs Velasquez has faced this season are slashing .320/.433/.600. Add in the altitude, and Castro could be looking at a slump-breaking performance.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels, $6,400 - Judge’s 2023 is going about exactly as you’d expect. The slugger is in possession of a .304 ISO and a 164 wRC+ through his first 67 plate appearances, though he’s technically yet to register a hit against a left-handed pitcher. That ends on Tuesday. Jose Suarez ($6,900) is throwing for the Angels, and the southpaw has allowed 18 hits and 10 earned runs in only 8.1 innings this season. RHBs, specifically, are slashing a robust .444/.459/.722 off the 25-year-old. That won’t cut it in the Bronx.
Stud
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, $5,800 - This is a layup. Few hitters are more locked in than Reynolds, who entered play on Monday with a .462 expected wOBA and a jaw-dropping 20.7% barrel rate. Not only will Reynolds get to take swings at Coors Field on Tuesday, but he’ll do so against the floundering Jose Urena ($5,500), who sports a 9.90 ERA through three starts. Opposing LHBs have mustered a .481 expected wOBA off of Urena so far in 2023. Reynolds, a switch-hitter, should be licking his chops.
Value
Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $3,500 - Kelenic’s hot streak came to an end against Corbin Burnes on Monday, but that’s not nearly bad enough to gloss over his start to 2023. Heck, the former top prospect entered the week in the 99th percentile of qualified hitters in hard hit rate (62.5%), expected slugging (.792) and expected wOBA (.494). I don’t care if he’s facing 2000 Pedro Martinez, at this price, that level of production is astonishing. Take advantage of the dip while you still can.
Value
Jack Suwinski, Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, $2,700 - I don’t even want to reference Suwinski’s home run off a position player in Monday’s win over the Rockies. However, the truth of the matter is Suwinski probably deserved a lucky break. Prior to that at-bat, the sophomore was hitting just .200 with a 67 wRC+, despite a .387 expected wOBA and a 60.0% hard hit rate. The 24-year-old has some power. His .228 ISO against RHPs in 2022 isn’t a mirage. He’s got some legit upside, particularly when playing in Colorado.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.