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All series have the home team up 3-1 with the chance to close things out. The Nuggets and Suns have had a lengthy championship drought, so moving onto the next round will send joy throughout the throngs of the devout. There’s nothing left to scout. These Game 5s will be all about who can be stout and play with no doubt. The home teams are all favored by at least 10 points, that will be a difficult endeavor for the visiting teams to surmount. But in order to climb to the top of the Mount, winning is the only route. May you choose the right players tonight, hopefully the value is more than just a price discount. Good luck and, hopefully, the DK account will expound by a substantial amount.
Dejounte Murray, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Kyle Anderson are the notable players on the injury report, and all are out tonight. Jaylen Nowell ($3,100) is the only player listed as questionable. Keep abreast of all the injury news @dklive.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the ATL-BOS game with a 229.5 total, the highest on the slate. The Celtics are favored by 13 points. The MIN-DEN game has the lowest total on the slate at 220. The Nuggets are favored by 10 points. The LAC-PHO game has a 224 total, with the Suns favored by 12.5 points.
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Guard
Studs
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets ($9,100) – My initial thought was to go with Trae Young ($8,600) with Dejounte Murray out. It makes sense because Young sees a five percentage-point usage rate increase to 38% with Murray off the court. I decided to go away from him for a number of reasons.
For starters, the rostership will likely be very high, since everyone knows that Young sees a massive usage rate without Murray. Young can also have shooting efficiency concerns, and I’m thinking that Boston will blitz Young more this game and force the other players to beat them. Finally, Edwards has been amazing in his own right, putting up over 60 DKFP in each of the last three games. The usage rate has been above 31% in every contest, and he’s played 42, 44 and 46 minutes. He’s been super aggressive, contributing in every statistical category, and I don’t see him going down without at least a fight. The rostership should be much lower than Young’s, as well.
Other Options - Jamal Murray ($8,200), Devin Booker ($9,600), Russell Westbrook ($9,300), Marcus Smart ($6,000)
Value
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics ($4,800) – Bogdanovic will likely be the highest rostered player on the slate because he will likely get the start for Murray. He averages 0.91 DKFP per minute, and the price is likely too cheap for the role and expected playing time. Since I’m fading Young, someone will have to score, and Bogdanovic could be that guy. There is certainly risk, though, because he is a very streaky shooter, but there is risk in fading him, as well, because he could go 10X at high rostership.
Other Options - Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,100), Malcolm Brogdon ($5,200), Bruce Brown ($4,700), Terance Mann ($4,700)
Forward
Studs
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks ($10,000) – Tatum is the second-highest priced player on the slate, so it may be difficult getting up to him, especially with Nikola Jokic at $10,800. He is just so solid that he has to be in the mix. He’s going to play close to 40 minutes, garner a usage rate above 30% and more than likely score in the 50 DKFP range, with the upside for more. In the four games so far in the series, he’s scored at least 20 points in all, with at least 10 rebounds in three of those contests. He’s attempted at least 20 shots in every game, as well.
Other Options - Kevin Durant ($9,900)
Value
Saddiq Bey, Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics ($4,200) – With Murray out, Bogdanovic will likely start, but Bey should see an increase in minutes, as well. The usage rate has normally been in the teens, but that number should spike tonight. When he was with the Pistons, he put up 50 points in a game, so he’s a professional getter of buckets. Since I’m fading Young tonight, Bogdanovic and Bey are the likely candidates to carry much of the offensive load.
Other Options - De’Andre Hunter ($5,400)
Center
Studs
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves ($10,800) – It’s been a slow progression towards dominance for Jokic this series. It’s as if he needed some time to get warmed up. In the opener, he went for 42.5 DKFP. Then he put up 50.75 in Game 2, 57.35 DKFP in Game 3 and a 71.75 DKFP explosion in Game 4. The crazy thing is that’s not even his ceiling!
That said, he likely won’t garner a 41.9% usage rate as he did in Game 4, but the thing with Jokic is that you never know. He’s always in play to triple-double, to garner a sky-high usage rate and provide the highest DKFP score on the slate. Rostership is going to be low due to the high salary.
Other Options - Rudy Gobert ($6,800)
Value
Robert Williams III, Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks ($5,300) – Williams is coming off a 44.75-DKFP game, in which he put up 13 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks. He played 29 minutes. In the first three games of the series, he played 20, 23 and 22 minutes, so there is some uncertainty as to his playing time. But, but, but....the upside is so, so, so tantalizing and is unmatched by anyone else in the tier.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.