The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
The field for the second major championship of the season is set at 156 players. Like all PGA Championships, the event gives out 20 spots to PGA TOUR teaching professionals who qualify through the 2022 PGA Professional Championship. The rest of the competitors come from the top pros in the world, with the top 70 on the PGA TOUR money list (from last year’s PGA Championship until two weeks prior) getting spots. Open Championship, U.S. Open and Masters winners from the past five years also get invites.
From a field perspective, the one name to keep an eye on this week will be Jordan Spieth, who enters with wrist issues after having withdrawn from the Byron Nelson the week prior. Spieth is in the field as of writing and is traveling to Rochester, so it seems likely he will attempt to play. This season sees Jon Rahm enter as the number-one player in the world, followed closely by Scottie Scheffler. Last year’s winner Justin Thomas has fallen out of the top 10 and sits 13th.
For daily fantasy golf purposes, it’s also worth noting that the PGA Championship has its own cut rule. For this week only, the top 70 players and ties will be allowed to play the weekend, with no secondary cut rule intact. This is different from regular PGA TOUR events, where only the top 65 and ties play the weekend.
The Course
Oak Hill (East Course) — Rochester, New York
Par: 70, 7,399 yards; Greens: Bentgrass
Oak Hill will again host the PGA Championship. This will be the fourth time hosting the event in its history, and the course was last seen on the PGA TOUR at the 2013 PGA Championship, which was won by Jason Dufner. The Donald Ross-designed course is located just outside Rochester and is one of many championship-style courses in this area that the PGA often visits. The venue will play about 300 yards longer than it did in 2013.
The par 70 has fairly simple routing with only a few doglegs thrown in on some of the longer holes. Given that the recent renovations also saw many trees cut down, you can expect this course to be a driver-heavy kind of venue where many of the power players opt for power over accuracy. The rough has been grown out, which will penalize those who miss the fairway too often but the strength and solid iron play of some of the top players should also be able to shine through.
In terms of angles, expect both par 4 efficiency and approach play to once again be a major factor. Four of the last five PGA Championship winners have gained 4.0 strokes on approach or more, with three of the last five gaining well over 5.0 strokes on approach for the week.
In terms of correlation, there are a couple of different angles to consider. Oak Hill is in the Northeastern United States and the PGA has played lots of big events in this region over the last decade. Solid performances at venues like Shinnecock Hills, Winged Foot, Beth Page Black, and Liberty National are all good indicators that a player may just set up well for Oak Hill.
Additionally, looking at recent form on Donald Ross-designed venues is worth noting. Sedgefield CC, Detroit Golf Course, East Lake, Pinehurst #2, and Aronimink are all Ross courses that either host regular PGA events or have hosted big events in the past.
2023 Outlook: The weather this week looks similar to what we got for the Masters in that we are again getting unseasonably cold temperatures and potentially some heavier winds and rain as well. Thursday has early morning highs in the 50F range, with 60-65F forecasted for the afternoon. Friday gets much warmer but also has high winds in the forecast, which could approach 15mph or worse in spots. As of now, avoiding Friday p.m. is likely the play, as the Friday a.m. starters will also be missing the cooler Thursday a.m. weather. The weekend also has some wind and rain in the forecast, which will likely make the already long course play even longer. Look for tough scoring this week and a winning score similar to last year’s 5-under-par mark.
Last 5 Winners
2022—Justin Thomas -5 (over Will Zalatoris playoff)
2021—Phil Mickelson -6 (over Brooks Koepka/Louis Oosthuizen -4)
2020—Collin Morikawa -13 (over Paul Casey -11)
2019—Brooks Koepka -8 (over Dustin Johnson -6)
2018—Brooks Koepka -16 (over Tiger Woods -14)
Winning Trends
- Seven of the past 10 winners of the PGA Championship finished T15 or better in their last start before winning this event (Justin Thomas finished T28 in his last start in 2017 and Collin Morikawa finished T20 in his last start in 2020).
- Six of the past seven winners of the PGA Championship played in the PGA TOUR event the week prior to their win, with the exception of Mickelson in 2021.
- Four of the past six winners had already picked up a win on the season (dating back to the Fall swing) prior to their PGA Championship victory, with the exception of Mickelson in 2021, and Justin Thomas in 2022.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
Hole Breakdown (Oak Hill - 2023):
Par 3s: two par 3s 200-250 yards; two par 3s 175-200 yards
Par 4s: seven par 4s 450-plus yards; four par 4’s 400-450 yards; one par 4’s less than 400 yards.
Par 5s: one par 5 600-plus yards; one par 5 550-600 yards
Par 4 efficiency stats (last 50 rounds)
- Jason Day
- Scottie Scheffler
- Jon Rahm
- Tony Finau
- Xander Schauffele
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green stats (last 24 rounds)
- Jon Rahm
- Scottie Scheffler
- Rory McIlroy
- Collin Morikawa
- Brooks Koepka
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them. This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Jason Day +2200 and $8,900
Comparables:
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2800 and $8,400
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Recent Form
1. Jon Rahm ($11,400; 2nd-T15-win): Rahm comes in off two weeks of rest which is slightly concerning but not enough to knock him from top spot in the world. He’s grabbed four wins on the season and two other top-three finishes making him the man to beat.
2. Jason Day ($8,900; win-MC-39th): Day finally materialized with the comeback win last week in Texas. He gained over 10.0 strokes ball-striking and still has room to grow upwards with his putter and short game.
3. Tyrrell Hatton ($8,500; T5-T3): The Englishman went through a small dip during the Masters and RBC but has rebounded nicely. He has five top-six finishes on the PGA TOUR this season and looks like a player ready to contend at a major.
4. Xander Schauffele ($9,900; 2nd-4th): Schauffele’s last two starts include a 4th at the RBC and a 2nd at the Wells Fargo — both elite field events. He’s got a fantastic major championship record and posted a 10th at the year’s first major last month.
5. Wyndham Clark ($7,500; win-T24): Clark’s game has really taken a step up in level this year. He’s gained over 2.0 strokes on approach in nine starts this season and has made the cut in his last 15 PGA TOUR starts.
6. Dustin Johnson ($8,800; win-T27): Johnson could only manage a 48th at the first major but he’s coming in off a win at the last LIV Golf event and has finished 10th or better in three of his last four LIV starts.
7. Brooks Koepka ($10,100; T5-T3): Koepka posted a 2nd at the first major and has finished 5th or better in four of his last five starts. He’s won this event twice, once in 2019 in the New York area at Beth Page Black.
8. Adam Scott ($7,800; T8-T5): Scott has come alive in the spring posting top-10 finishes in each of his last two starts. The Aussie finished 39th at the first major and shot a pair of 63’s last week.
9. Sungjae Im ($9,000; T8-T7): Im has been the beacon of consistency this season. He’s posted seven top-20 finishes and his only missed cut came in January at the Sony Open.
10. Cameron Smith ($9,300; T2-T6): Smith is starting to come alive at the right time. The 2022 Open Championship winner only finished 34th at the first major but has finished 6th or better in each of his last three LIV starts.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Day should deliver
Jason Day ($8,900) will undoubtedly be a popular name in DFS and betting circles this week after he broke through for a win at the Byron Nelson in his last start. This Aussie gained over 6.0 strokes on approach in his win and has plenty of experience playing and winning big events in this area of the world. He’s a great starting point for cash game lineups. Both Xander Schauffele ($9,900) and Patrick Cantlay ($9,700) are appealing for balanced builds, as is Tyrrell Hatton ($8,500), who has five top-six finishes on the season after last week. Rickie Fowler ($7,600) and Adam Scott ($7,800) are two other names to look at in the 7k range for those wanting a balanced approach.
Tournaments: Expect low ownership on McIlroy
With only a 47th on his docket since the Masters, Rory McIlroy ($10,700) is not going to draw much interest in the DFS sphere this week. While he may not have shown the top form of the other two men priced above $10,500 this week, McIlroy has finished top 10 in nine of the last 16 major championships. That’s too good a record to ignore in big-field GPPs, where he may only approach 5-10% ownership. Lower down, there are plenty of low-owned names from the LIV golf tour to take advantage of. Joaquin Niemann ($7,900) finished 16th at the Masters and finished top 10 in his last two starts. The setup more than favors a ball striker of his ability. Further down, it’s easy to forget how dominant Bryson DeChambeau ($7,400) was in this area of the world in 2020 at Winged Foot. He shot rounds of 68-63-67 last week and finished T5. Other names to consider this week include Stephan Jaeger (not yet added), Adrian Mernok ($6,700), and Adam Svensson ($6,600).
MY PICK: Xander Schauffele ($9,800)
Schauffele feels like a man on a mission at this point in the season. An early season 3rd at the American Express (an event he never plays) was followed up by a bunch of solid finishes as he worked through an early season back issue. That issue seems well in the past now as Schauffele has started spring by posting a 10th at the Masters and top-five finishes at each of the last two elevated field events.
Schauffele is no stranger to big events and wins at the Tour Championship and Olympics showcase a player capable of beating the best in the world when the conditions are right. This part of the USA has proven more than suitable for him as he’s grabbed top-six finishes at two US Opens (Winged Foot and Shinnecock Hills) and also played well (T16) at the 2019 PGA Championship at Beth Page Black.
Truth be told, if not for a Wyndham Clark ($7,500) career week two starts ago, we may actually be talking about Schauffele as a winner already in 2023 and at prices approaching $11,000 on DraftKings. The fact he isn’t quite there yet still makes him a solid upper-tier target for DFS and a player who makes sense to target in the outright market on the DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
MY SLEEPER: Rickie Fowler ($7,600)
Fowler has now made 11 cuts on the PGA TOUR since his 2nd-place finish at the Zozo Championship last fall and looks thirsty for a breakthrough win. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks eighth in this field in strokes gained approach stats, putting him on par with names like Spieth and Schauffele — and ahead of others like McIlroy and Cantlay. Lately, his putter and short game have also been waking up and he comes in having gained 2.5 strokes or more on the greens in each of his last two starts.
The American has also found plenty of upside in the Northeastern United States courses over his career. He won a FedEx Cup playoff event at TPC Boston in 2015 and came close to winning another stacked playoff event at Bethpage Black in 2016. It’s worth noting that he’s also had great results on a couple of other tree-lined par 70 venues like Narishino CC (2nd 2022) and TPC Potomac (3rd 2017) that set up somewhat similar to what the players will see this week at Oak Hill.
Fowler’s best finish ever in a major came on another Donald Ross-designed course in Pinehurst #2 way back in 2014, so the synergy for him works from a design perspective this week too. Confident and secure with his newfound position in the golfing world, Fowler can go hunting this week at Oak Hill, a venue where his superior approach game should shine through and where the pure bentgrass greens should be a welcome sight for his suddenly hot putting stroke. At just $7,600 on DraftKings, he’s a fantastic value to build with, and for betting, the +8000 outright and +650 top 10 price offer lots of appeal from both a storyline and value perspective.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.