It’s been a weird week for baseball and we’re only at Wednesday morning. Primarily, the oddities have taken place in Toronto, where in the span of two games, we’ve seen the creation of an Aaron Judge side-eye meme, Domingo German get ejected for sticky stuff and two managers who really seem to care about the coaches boxes.
What will tonight bring? Let’s dive into the madness.
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PITCHER
Stud
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, $8,600 - If you’re looking for a safer high-end asset, Gerrit Cole ($11,500) is probably the way to go against a Jays team that might be without Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,600; knee). But it’s difficult to ignore that Burnes is almost $3K cheaper than his fellow All-Star. The strikeouts haven’t been at the level we’re all used to seeing, but Burnes has been super effective in his last six trips to the mound, pitching to a 1.73 ERA and holding opponents to a .229 wOBA across 36.1 innings. Heck, for the season, his swinging strike rate is still 12.1%. At some point, he’s going to look like himself again. At this price, I’ll take the chance that transformation begins this evening.
Value
Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners, $5,700 - This is a slate with a lot of good pitching options, and Bello’s surface stats aren’t pretty, but I still can’t wrap my mind around this price tag. I will die on the hill that Bello is good. His stuff passes the eye test and through five outings in 2023, he’s averaging over a strikeout per inning. Unfortunately for the right-hander, he’s been saddled with a .368 BABIP and a 29.4% HR/FB ratio. That’s why despite an ERA over 5.00, Bello also owns a 3.54 SIERA. Considering the Mariners come into Wednesday with baseball’s highest strikeout rate (25.6%), Bello has a lot more potential than the algorithm realizes.
INFIELD
Stud
Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs, $4,700 - After an amazing run in October, 2023 hasn’t started the way Pena might have wanted. However, he’s still been an absolute force when getting the opportunity to face a left-handed pitcher. In 44 plate appearances within the split, Pena is sporting a .282 ISO and a 155 wRC+. Drew Smyly ($7,600) has been impressive, but at the end of the day, he’s a southpaw.
Stud
Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians, $4,500 - It’s been a rough go for Peyton Battenfield ($6,000) at the MLB level. The right-hander owns a 5.39 xERA across six appearances, and you could easily make the case that that number should be worse. LHBs are hitting Battenfield hard, like to the tune of a 53.7% hard contact rate and 2.57 home runs per nine. Yet, thanks to a .135 BABIP within the split, Battenfield is just skating by. I’d expect Moncada, who has always thrived against RHPs, to do some damage tonight.
Value
William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, $3,700 - Contreras is about the only person on the Brewers roster that can hit left-handed pitching. Since the beginning of 2022, the backstop is hitting .341 with a 181 wRC+ in his 159 plate appearances within the split. Matthew Liberatore ($7,400) is making his 2023 debut tonight for the Cardinals. In 34.2 MLB innings in 2022, Liberatore pitched to an underwhelming 5.49 xERA.
Value
Luke Raley, Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets, $3,600 - With Yandy Diaz ($5,100; groin) banged up, I expect there will be a spot for Raley in the Rays’ lineup tonight. I mean, why not? In his 95 plate appearances against RHPs this season, Raley possesses a massive .306 ISO and a 151 wRC+. That important to note, as Kodai Senga ($9,700) has had his issues keeping the ball in the park — at least that’s what an inflated 20.7% HR/FB ratio suggests.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, $6,000 - While Chris Bassitt ($7,400) has yet to allow a single earned run in May, we’re talking about Aaron Judge here. The reigning American League MVP has five home runs in his past four games. If he doesn’t get Bassitt — the RHP is holding opposing right-handed bats to a .203 wOBA — he’ll tag someone in Toronto’s bullpen.
Stud
Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets, $4,900 - Like the aforementioned Raley, Lowe is now an unstoppable offensive force when there’s a right-handed pitcher on the mound. In his 109 plate appearances within the split, Lowe owns a .317 ISO and a 166 wRC+. The 25-year-old has also been at his best playing away from Tropicana Field in 2023, as Lowe has registered an eye-popping 198 wRC+ on the road.
Value
Chas McCormick, Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs, $3,400 - I live by a simple mantra in this crazy mixed-up world: Play McCormick when the Astros are facing a lefty. For his career, the outfielder is hitting .301 with a 157 wRC+ against southpaws. It’s only a 221 plate appearance sample, but it’s good enough for me.
Value
Rob Refsnyder, Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners, $2,800 - Some things never change. It’s been over a half-decade, and I’m still throughly underwhelmed by Marco Gonzales ($7,100). The lefty is doing his usual thing in 2023. Gonzales comes into Wednesday’s action with a 4.62 xERA and just a 16.1% strikeout rate. Feel free to stack Red Sox bats against him, particularly Refsnyder, who sports a .318 average and a 136 wRC+ versus LHPs this season. Refsnyder also hit third the last time Boston saw a left-hander.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.