Jimmy Butler led the Heat to the Game 1 victory. Boston scored 22 more points in the paint, so why they lost is a mystery. But there was no trickery. Miami shot 16-of-31 from downtown, compared to 10-of-29 for Boston, so the Heat had the more effective long-range artillery. Boston is heavily favored tonight, but if they lose and go down 0-2, the city will be filled with angst and worry. Only 33 out of 447 teams have come back from a 0-2 deficit, that is not positive history. But the foundation of the Celtics is not rickety, so a bounceback is likely, but nothing is ever guaranteed, remember what happened to Hillary?
DraftKings Sportsbook has this game with a 215.5 total and the home team Celtics favored by 9.0 points.
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Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Captain’s Picks
Robert Williams ($6,900 CP): I like how the lineup construction ends up with Williams in the Captain slot. Both Butler and Tatum can be rostered while the rest of the players aren’t chumps and are significant members of the rotation. Williams averaged 0.99 DKFP per minute and played 26 minutes in Game 1. In the final two games of the Philadelphia series, Williams played 30 and 28 minutes. While he’s a low-usage player, he does get lobs and putbacks, but where he makes his hay is on the boards and defensive stats. The likely outcome is that he scores in the mid-20 DKFP range, but he does have 40 DKFP upside, something he accomplished three other times this season.
Jimmy Butler ($18,600 CP): If I’m going for the lineup construction with the potential highest raw points scorer in the Captain slot, then Butler is my choice. He garnered a 34.2% usage rate in Game 1 and is the Alpha and Omega of the Heat offense. Unlike Tatum, who can suffer bouts of inefficiency, Butler is extremely efficient and contributes in every statistical category. He likely won’t replicate the six steals he racked up in Game 1, but plenty of points, rebounds and assists should be in the cards.
UTIL Plays
Caleb Martin ($5,000): Martin played 30 minutes in Game 1 and put up 32 DKFP. On the season, he averaged 0.73 DKFP, so another 30-burger isn’t likely. That said, somewhere in the 20-DKFP range is likely, and that would be alright at the price tag. Like Butler, Martin does contribute a little in every category and the usage rate is decent in the 16% to 20% range. He will likely get some good looks as Boston focuses on Butler. Whether he connects or not will determine if he has a ceiling game or not.
Kyle Lowry ($6,400): Lowry played 28 minutes in Game 1 and shot 6-of-12 from the field and 3-of-5 from downtown. The volume and efficiency can be volatile, but he chips in everywhere, so the floor is relatively high. Over the last seven games, Lowry has played at least 25 minutes in all with four of those at least 30 minutes. He’s put up at least 23 DKFP in all seven with three over 30 and a high of 43.75 DKFP.
Marcus Smart ($7,200): If we’re talking about volatile, then Smart is the poster boy. It wouldn’t be surprising if he shot 2-of-7 or 8-of-15 from the field. He could dish out 11 assists like he did in Game 1, or have just two like in Game 2 of the 76ers series. He can rack up steals and help out on the glass, but he can also be a non-factor in both. That said, he’s put up at least 20 DKFP in every game but two in these playoffs, with nine over 30 and a high of 47.75 DKFP. The important thing, though, is that he’s on the floor a ton, and minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe! On the season, Smart averaged 0.9 DKFP per minute.
Fades
Jaylen Brown ($10,200): Brown is a fantastic player, but he is the Robin to Tatum’s Batman, so the usage rate will always flow to Tatum first. While he did garner a 31.9% usage rate in Game 1, he’s been over 30% only five other times in these playoffs. The main issue, though, from a fantasy perspective, is that he is so dependent on scoring. He will chip in some rebounds and assists with the occasional defensive stats, but he is more than likely to score in the 30 DKFP range than the 40s. At his price, I’m not sure it’s worth it. If the ownership is low enough, then I don’t mind going in this direction, but I have doubts that it would be low enough to make it worth it. In these playoffs (14 games), Brown has scored at least 40 DKFP just six times.
THE OUTCOME
The offense wasn’t the problem for the Celtics, as they shot 51.9% from the field in Game 1. They lost the three-point math problem, though. I expect the Celtics to run around like a band of banshees tonight and make it difficult for Miami to score. They will likely tighten up the three-point defense and should win pretty handily. Boston was the most balanced team this year, and I’d expect them to remind the world again.
Final Score: Celtics 112, Heat 98
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mbarner51) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.