We’ve got a 12-game featured MLB slate this evening. Well, we have the potential for one, anyway. It is early May, so that means keeping an eye on possible rain in Boston, Colorado and Oakland. However, weather isn’t always bad news in baseball. For instance, the forecast has strong winds in New York and Chicago that could help a couple deep fly balls on Tuesday.
Alright. All me to take off my meteorologist hat. Let’s dive into the numbers and go position-by-position.
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PITCHER
Stud
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians, $11,500 - There’s an interesting decision to be made at the top of tonight’s pitching list: Cole vs. Zac Gallen ($10,000). The latter is cheaper and is in the midst of a historic scoreless innings streak, yet I still find myself drawn to Cole based on the matchup. While the Guardians remain a low strikeout rate team, they simply can not hit. To wit, Cleveland enters this contest sitting 27th in wRC+ (82) and 28th in wOBA (.289). It also ranks dead-last in the American League in ISO (.116). Cole, equipped with a 1.11 ERA and a 2.11 FIP, should be able to make quick work of this struggling lineup and rack up enough strikeouts along the way.
Value
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, $6,500 - I know some people are opposed to using two starters from the same game on a slate this size — it does impact scoring potential — but this might be a special circumstance. After putting Aaron Judge (hip) on the 10-day IL on Monday, the Yankees’ lineup just isn’t scary. At all. In fact, even with Judge available the past two weeks, New York posted a putrid 68 wRC+ to go along with an AL-worst .096 ISO. I don’t think the presence of Harrison Bader ($3,200) is going to change much. As for Bibee, the rookie looked fantastic in his MLB debut. Bibee allowed a single earned run across 5.2 innings, registering notable marks in strikeout rate (34.8%) and swinging strike rate (12.1%). At this price, in this matchup, I’m going back to the well.
INFIELD
Stud
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals, $4,700 - Just like in 2022, it would seem the new Camden dimensions are effecting Mountcastle’s production. While the first baseman’s .301 wOBA is underwhelming, a quick glance at his .389 expected wOBA should clear up any disillusions. Mountcastle has been particularly effective against LHPs in 2023, posting a .318 ISO and a 160 wRC+ within the split. Ryan Yarbrough ($5,000) and his 6.11 xERA should be little match for Mountcastle and the Orioles’ potent lineup.
Stud
Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, $4,700 - It’s been a rough start to the season for Correa, but if ever there was a series to turn things around, it’s this one against the White Sox. Michael Kopech ($6,300) has been brutal in his five starts in 2023, surrendering 2.81 opponent home runs per nine and sporting an inflated 9.86 xERA across 25.2 innings of work. It’s been specifically right-handed batters giving Kopech fits, as opposing RHBs have combined to slash .354/.446/.625 of the RHP. With the wind blowing out at Guaranteed Rate Field this evening, I doubt Kopech’s numbers improve.
Value
Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles, $3,700 - Not much has gone right for the Royals this season, but if there is a bright spot, it’s most certainly Pasquantino. The sophomore had a slow first week to open 2023, yet dating back to April 7, Pasquantino is slashing .313/.400/.578 with a 165 wRC+ over 96 plate appearances. That span also includes 0.9 BB/K ratio, as has become customary with Pasquantino. This isn’t a knock on Tyler Wells ($7,300). This is just a matter of Pasquantino being too inexpensive in an opposite-hand matchup.
Value
Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels at St. Louis Cardinals, $2,700 - I’m curious to see if Neto is hitting leadoff for the Angels once again on Tuesday. The rookie doesn’t seem like your usual leadoff archetype — unless seven HBPs in 60 plate appearances is sustainable — yet with Taylor Ward ($4,300) struggling, a change needed to be made. If Neto gets the chance, he’s immediately viable in a matchup with Steven Matz ($5,900). Not only has the lefty labored to an ugly 6.23 ERA so far in 2023, but in a limited sample, Neto owns a 187 wRC+ versus southpaws.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, $5,400 - As mentioned above, Kopech has had his issues with RHBs in 2023, conceding an eye-popping 3.18 home runs per nine within the split. He’s also struck out only 14.3% of the righties he’s faced. All of this should be music to the ears of Buxton, who sports a 31.5% strikeout rate, yet enjoys a .446 expected wOBA on his batted ball events. Not to mention, Buxton’s hit a long ball in four of his last five games. Needless to say, this is a pretty good spot of the oft-injured outfielder.
Stud
Hunter Renfroe, Los Angeles Angels at St. Louis Cardinals, $4,900 - For his career, Renfroe owns a 137 wRC+ when facing left-handed pitching. In 2022, Renfroe posted a 134 wRC+ within the split. This season, in a 28 plate appearance sample, Renfroe has managed a 170 wRC+ against southpaws. I guess what I’m trying to say is, Renfroe is viable in his matchup with the scuffling Matz.
Value
Jesse Winker, Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, $3,600 - Let me be clear: Winker is not having a good start to his tenure in Milwaukee. He’s at least getting on base via the walk, but the veteran’s .057 ISO and 77 wRC+ are leaving much to be desired. Still, if history is any indication, he’ll be hitting second in the Brewers’ order against the right-handed Ryan Feltner ($5,600) on Tuesday. That’s all you need to be viable at Coors at this price.
Value
Nick Senzel, Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres, $2,700 - Why not? Senzel might be the hottest hitter in baseball at the moment, with three home runs and 13 hits in his past six games. It’s the kind of production we’ve yet to see from Senzel throughout his career, yet remember that the 27-year-old is a former second-overall pick. There’s some real pedigree here. Look for Senzel to keep the good times rolling against Michael Wacha ($7,500), who has given up 15 earned runs in his last three starts.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.