The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
The Field
The AT&T Byron Nelson is a full-field event that will feature 156 golfers in attendance. It’s the final warmup start on the schedule before the PGA Championship and features a much stronger field than we’ve seen in years past. The defending champion is KH Lee, who won this event for the second year in a row last season at 26-under par. The course (TPC Craig Ranch) will be the host for just the third season. We don’t have a ton of course history notes or data to go off of, but we can look back at Lee’s performances to give us a good indicator of what to expect from a winner. The field features 13 of the world’s top 50 golfers in the OWGR and seven of the top-15.
The event is headlined by the World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who is making just his second start since the Masters in April. Texas-born players like Ryan Palmer (the supposed course record holder here), Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Jimmy Walker, and Cameron Champ will all be in attendance this week as well. Returning to action here will be Hideki Matsuyama, who took a break after Augusta to address a neck issue. Matsuyama looks ready to go by all reports and should be in a position to excel at this venue, where he placed 3rd last season.
The cut (top-65 and ties) will take place in its usual spot after Friday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $700K Pitch + Putt [$200K to 1st]
The Course
TPC Craig Ranch—McKinney, Texas
Par 71, 7,414 yards; Green: Bentgrass
TPC Craig Ranch was built back in 2004 by Tom Weiskopf and has signed on as host for the Byron Nelson up until 2025. The venue has seen some action hosting other professional Tours and acted as the stage for the Korn Ferry Tour Championship back in 2012, an event that saw a winning score of 16-under par. In its first two seasons hosting the Byron, the pros have been helped by rain softening the course, and, as a result, we’ve seen winning scores explode past 24 under in both runnings. One note for 2023 is that the course has transformed the 500+ yard Par 5 12th hole into a 492 yards Par 4 for the pros. It won’t make much of a difference for how the course plays, but the winning score is likely to be in the 20 under range as a result.
The venue now sets up as a traditional par 71, and like many Weiskopf designs, it has a nice blend of tougher stretches and scoring holes. Weiskopf also designed TPC Scottsdale, which plays around the same length as TPC Craig Ranch and has traditionally seen winners post 16-18 under par for their winning scores. The three par 5s at TPC Craig Ranch all present decent birdie chances, as only one measures in at over 560 yards.
While there are shorter par 5s in play, there are also seven par 4s now that measure in at over 450 yards. Looking at players with good efficiency stats between 450-500 yards then is certainly worth your while, as is long approach proximity stats. With softer greens and an open design, GIR% tends to be higher than normal, making around the green play less relevant. The top finishers at this event over the last two seasons gained the least amount of strokes around the greens (compared to other categories).
The routing of the course isn’t overly complex as there aren’t many doglegs in play and the venue does appear to have plenty of space just off the fairways in many spots. We don’t have a ton of data to work off, but last year saw players able to set themselves up for big weeks on approach — even with just sub-par work off the tee. KH Lee gained +7.0 strokes more on Approach than off the tee in 2021 and was again far more positive on approach in 2022 than off the tee.
Strokes gained approach and proximity stats from >200 yards are a couple of stats to key in on this week as the weather this year will again include some thunderstorms, which figure to soften up the greens and make this target golf for the pros. Look for aggressive iron players who can get hot on these greens to prosper once again.
2023 Weather Outlook: The weather this week includes the potential for thunderstorms on nearly every day of the event. Starting Wednesday, there is a 50% chance of precipitation every day of the week, so while we may not get rain that falls consistently, do expect there to be lots of passing showers or storms mixed in. That means a softer course and very good scoring conditions will be in play once again. There is a little bit of wind to note as well, with the forecast seeing gusts approach 12-15mph on both Thursday and Friday afternoon. For first-round leader betting and showdown lineups on DraftKings, earlier starters should be preferred the first two days.
Last 5 Winners
2022—KH Lee -26 (over Jordan Spieth -25)
2021—KH Lee -25 (over Sam Burns -23)
*2019—Sung Kang -23 (over Scott Piercy -21)
*2018—Aaron Wise -23 (over Marc Leishman -20)
*2017—Billy Horschel -12 (over Jason Day playoff)
*Note: Tournaments played between ‘16 to ‘19 were played at different venues than TPC Craig Ranch.
Winning Trends
- Nine of the last 10 winners of the Byron Nelson had already recorded a T8 or better on the PGA TOUR in the same year of their victory—prior to winning at the Byron Nelson.
- Four of the last five winners of the Byron Nelson played the week prior (two of those winners missed the cut at their previous start).
Winners Stats and Course Overview
KH Lee—2022 (26-under-par at TPC Craig Ranch)
2022 lead-in form (T25-MC-MC-MC-55)
SG: OTT — +2.3
SG: APP — +5.2
SG: TTG — +10.2
SG: ATG — +2.7
SG: PUTT — +3.9
- KH Lee didn’t come in with sparkling form in either of the past two seasons, but he was starting to show signs of breakout prior to his win with better iron play — he also made the cut and had good approach stats at the Wells Fargo prior to each win.
- Lee gained his most strokes on the field through his Approach game and also excelled on the par 4s at TPC Craig Ranch, where he was ranked second in efficiency for the week in 2021 (TPC Craig Ranch has six par 4s over 450 yards).
- In both seasons, Lee wasn’t anywhere near the top in fairways gained or strokes gained off-the-tee stats, but he was near the lead in GIR%. Lee also led the field in proximity from 150-175 yards and was top-5 from 175-200 yards as well in 2021.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Min Woo Lee +3500 and $8,400
Comparables:
- Taylor Montgomery +3500 and $8,700
- Tom Hoge +4500 and $8,500
- Maverick McNealy +4000 and $8,800
Will Gordon +5000 and $7,800
Comparables:
- Davis Riley +5000 and $8,000
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6500 and $8,000
- Byeong Hun-An +5000 and $8,600
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Recent Form
1. Jordan Spieth ($10,600; MC-2nd-T4): Spieth may have missed the cut last week, but he leads the field in birdie or better % over the last 50 rounds and has three top-five finishes over his last four starts.
2. Tyrrell Hatton ($10,100; T3-T19): Hatton is nipping on Spieth’s heels form-wise and grabbed a share of third last week at the Byron Nelson. His ball-striking returned to form last week, making him a dangerous man to fade in this weaker field.
3. Jimmy Walker ($7,100; T14-T15-T25): Walker has turned back the clock and is showing good form. He’s landed top 25 finishes in four straight events and has gained strokes on approach in six straight events.
4. Matt Kuchar ($9,000; T23-T19): Kuchar has also finished in the top 25 in his last three starts and has been otherworldly around the greens of late. He’s got solid course history to back him up as well.
5. Michael Kim ($7,500; T7-T30): Kim has really turned things around in 2023. Once a missed cut junky, the 2018 John Deere winner ranks sixth in strokes gained total stats over the last six weeks.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Time to get back on the Tom Kim train
Kim ($9,600) has struggled at times with some of the more technical layouts on the PGA TOUR but should be happy to see TPC Craig Ranch, a wide-open layout that will likely play extra soft this week. Kim’s two wins came in lower-scoring events and the South Korean showcased high-level ball-striking last week, gaining 4.0 strokes on approach. Behind Kim, the options get thin quickly but this DFS format is also likely a great place to deploy Matt Kuchar into lineups. Kuchar has been ultra sharp ATG and putting of late and has finished top 20 at this event the last two seasons. He’s also made the cut in each of his last nine visits to the Tom Weiskopf-designed TPC Scottsdale. Other targets for this format include Michael Kim ($7,500) and Ryan Palmer ($7,100).
Tournaments: Bezuidenhout could be a winner this week
South Africans have already shown a penchant for TPC Craig Ranch, with Charl Schwarzel (now on Liv) having placed top 10 at this event the last two seasons. Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,000) is another strong South African connection, as he finished T12 at this course last season. Bezuidenhout has taken a couple of weeks off but was in fine form prior to the break finishing T19 at the RBC, where he gained over 4.0 strokes putting and on approach. Bezuidenhout is second in strokes gained putting on bentgrass greens over the past 50 rounds and has played well in Texas, posting a T15 at Colonial and T28 at the Valero just last month as well. Other potential GPP targets this week include Jason Day ($9,400), Jimmy Walker ($7,100), Trey Mullinax ($7,000), Kevin Chappell ($6,600), and Kevin Roy ($6,500).
MY PICK: Hideki Matsuyama ($9,800)
Matsuyama hasn’t played since the Masters, where he finished T15 and took time off after to seek treatment for his neck in Japan. The rest looks like it may have done him some good, as he was already posting videos of practice sessions over the weekend. In terms of setup, if Matsuyama is healthy then you should be interested in him for DFS. He’s absolutely destroyed the other Tom Weiskopf design on TOUR in TPC Scottsdale, posting wins at the venue in 2016 and 2017 and a runner finish there in 2014. Matsuyama also grabbed a share of 3rd at Craig Ranch last season and was 7th at TPC Twin Lakes in 2019 — another wide open parkland setting with soft bentgrass greens.
Both Tom Kim ($9,600) and Tyrrell Hatton ($10,100) look like appealing options in this range this week — with Kim also an option in the betting market at +1800 or bigger — but for DFS purposes, Matsuyama will almost certainly come with lower ownership than his peers. He led the field in proximity from >200 yards out last season at this event and will have plenty of motivation to chase a big week after missing out on some big events. Unless we get some kind of negative update later in the week, it looks like all systems go for Matsuyama, who has finished T16 or better in his last three starts.
MY SLEEPER: Cameron Champ ($7,300)
Champ flashed some serious ball striking at the Mexico Open a couple of weeks ago, gaining 9.9 strokes on approach + off the tee. His missed cut last week was disappointing but he’ll have another wide-open venue this week to work in TPC Craig Ranch, a venue where his underwhelming around-the-green skills aren’t likely to hamper his momentum much.
Champ has tended to flourish on these more wide-open layouts throughout his career, where scoring is easy and the GIR%s tend to stay high. He’s grabbed top 10 finishes at Vidanta Vilarta in each of the past two seasons and also notched his third PGA win at TPC Twin Lakes — another venue with massive fairways and bentgrass greens. Champ himself is also a Texas native who finished T38 at this event last season while gaining over 8.5 strokes ball-striking for the week.
For DFS purposes, Champ comes with obvious risk, given his record this season (3/15 in cuts made). However, his upside on courses like Craig Ranch is as good as nearly anyone’s in the field, as evidenced by his career win rate — 3 wins in 5 and a half seasons on TOUR. With his game showing signs of life he makes sense as a big field GPP target and a player to pounce on for top 10 and outright bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $700K Pitch + Putt [$200K to 1st]
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.