For the third year in a row, the PGA TOUR will be hosting the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch (par 71, 7,414 yards, bentgrass greens), which is located in McKinney, Texas. Winning at -25 two years ago and then at -26 last year, K.H. Lee has impressively won both editions of the AT&T Byron Nelson played at TPC Craig Ranch.
Evident from these low winning numbers, TPC Craig Ranch is without a doubt one of the easiest courses used on the PGA TOUR. The fairways are wide, the rough isn’t penalizing and the greens are some of the largest these players will see all season. The track’s biggest defense is that water comes into play on 13 holes and that there are 83 bunkers on the grounds.
While the putting surfaces are massive, being in pristine form with your irons is still a must to contend at TPC Craig Ranch. During both his victories at this venue, Lee finished the event top-10 in SG APP. The 31-year-old also ranked top-13 in SGP during both his wins at TPC Craig Ranch and targeting golfers who are in encouraging form with their flat stick is also important at this scoreable track, given the size of the greens.
With hole 12 being converted from a par five to a par four, TPC Craig Ranch will play as a par 71 this season, as opposed to a par 72 the past two years. The par fives are extremely easy at this course and walking away with at least a birdie every time you face one of these three holes will be essential if you want to contend at this birdie fest, as we saw last season when Lee led the field in par five efficiency. Furthermore, with hole 12 playing as a 493-yard par four this week, six of the 11 par fours at TPC Craig Ranch fall between 450-500 yards, certainly making this is a range to focus on for research.
With most of the best players on the PGA TOUR gearing up for the PGA Championship next week, only five of the top-25 ranked golfers in the world will be competing at TPC Craig Ranch this week. Overall, this is a full field of 156 players and there will be a standard top-65 and ties cut following the first 36 holes.
Below, I dive into four of my favorite DraftKings value plays for the AT&T Byron Nelson, that all are priced under $7.5K.
Dylan Wu ($7,400) – Ignore that Wu missed the weekend in his debut at TPC Craig Ranch last year and trust the 26-year-old at this affordable salary. Wu had missed three cuts in a row before heading to last year’s AT&T Byron Nelson but returns to McKinney this week playing the best golf of his career, boasting a 13-for-17 record in terms of made cuts this season, with four top-25 finishes. Wu has advanced to the weekend at nine consecutive individual stroke play events and is a perfect match for TPC Craig Ranch, ranking top-15 in SG APP, par five efficiency and 450-500-yard par four efficiency over his last 24 rounds.
Editor’s Note: Mark Hubbard has withdrawn from the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Mark Hubbard ($7,300) – Hubbard finished inside the top-35 at both of the AT&T Byron Nelsons at TPC Craig Ranch and now returns to McKinney riding a three made cut streak at individual stroke play events. Impressively, all three of these finishes have been top-30 results, thanks to Hubbard collectively gaining strokes with his irons and putter at all these tournaments. The 33-year-old now sits at a career-best No.123 in the world golf rankings and ranks top-20 in both SG APP and 450-500-yard par four efficiency over his last 24 rounds. Hubbard has only missed two cuts in his last 10 starts at tracks that feature bentgrass greens and is a steal at this low price tag.
Nate Lashley ($7,200) – Lashley posted a T17 at TPC Craig Ranch last season and is on the heels of three straight top-30 finishes while gaining strokes with irons and putter during all these starts. The 40-year-old has shot under par in nine of his past 12 rounds and ranks third in par five efficiency over his last 24 rounds, which is great news with a trip to TPC Craig Ranch on tap this week.
With a win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic on his resume, Lashley has the ability to shine at birdie fests and is an excellent bargain play this week that shouldn’t come with much ownership. Across his last five starts, Lashley has seen an average ownership of 3.1% in DraftKings’ main GPP of the week.
Jimmy Walker ($7,100) – After an abysmal start to the season, Walker has resurrected his game and is playing his best golf in years. The former major champion is coming off a T14 at the Wells Fargo Championship, marking his best finish of the season and fourth consecutive top-25 finish at an individual stroke play tournament. During this outstanding run, Walker has collectively gained strokes on APP and with his flat stick in every start and has shot under par in 12 of his 16 rounds. The 44-year-old is now the 245th ranked golfer in the world, which is the highest Walker has ranked in over three years.
The six-time PGA TOUR winner did miss the cut in his only start at TPC Craig Ranch two years ago, but this is irrelevant with Walker in far superior form this time around. On top of being one of the best DFS values on the board this week, the veteran is a tremendous bet for a top-20 finish at +400 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.