Not sure where you happen to be reading this from, but in Toronto, where I reside, it’s getting sunny and it’s getting hot. This is a positive development for many reasons, but mainly that it’s starting to really feel like Summer outside. Summer means baseball. Baseball means happiness — except when my team loses. It’s just a wonderful time of year.
Let’s go position-by-position for tonight’s 10-game featured slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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PITCHER
Stud
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros, $11,600 - Ohtani, as he often does, presents an interesting dilemma in DFS on Tuesday. The RHP clearly offers the most upside of any asset available — thanks primarily to a jaw-dropping 38.6% strikeout rate — yet his price tag is massive at $11.6K. Still, on a slate with multiple legitimately viable pitching options in the $8K range, I think you need to pay-up for Los Angeles’ All-Star. Not only is Ohtani amazing in his own right, but sneakily, the Astros have not been hitting. Across the past two weeks, Houston sports a .259 wOBA and a 61 wRC+, both the second-worst marks in all of baseball.
Value
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins, $4,500 - Pfaadt’s first MLB outing could not have gone much worse. Despite being one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, Pfaadt surrendered seven earned runs across 4.2 innings versus the Rangers, with home runs being the largest issue. Texas managed four off the right-handed rookie. Ouch. However, if you’re looking for a bright spot in that carnage, it’s that that blueprint for success isn’t easily copied by every team. For instance, over the past 14 days, the Marlins own the National League’s lowest ISO (.106). I doubt they’ll be racking up long balls off Pfaadt this evening. Instead, look for the 24-year-old to find his bearings and strike some dudes out. Pfaadt had 218 strikeouts in 167.0 innings across two levels in 2022.
INFIELD
Stud
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox, $5,700 - Here’s a newsflash no one needed: Matt Olson is still crushing right-handed pitching. Despite an elevated strikeout rate so far in 2023, Olson has managed a .337 ISO and a 166 wRC+ in his first 105 plate appearances within the split. On Tuesday, he’ll draw Nick Pivetta ($7,200), who has struggled keeping the ball in the park. Pivetta’s allowing 2.77 home runs per nine and a .588 slugging percentage to opposing LHBs. This should go well.
Stud
Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, $5,100 - The White Sox are one of a handful of teams projected to score at least five runs on Tuesday night. It makes sense. They are opposed by Jordan Lyles ($6,200), who owns a 7.46 ERA and a 6.95 FIP across his past six starts. Generally speaking, you want to use Anderson in a matchup with an LHP, yet Lyles has allowed right-handed bats to hit .304 with a .608 slugging percentage. So Anderson is certainly viable.
Value
Wilmer Flores, San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals, $2,600 - It’s a low bar, but it is worth noting that Patrick Corbin ($5,800) has been decent his last four outings. In fact, the southpaw has posted three quality starts within that span. Still, that doesn’t mean this is 2019 and Corbin is magically good again. For the season as a whole, the veteran is in possession of an ugly 5.84 xERA. Feel free to continue stacking against this man. Or, at the very least, use Flores to save some salary. The utility man has always hit LHPs well and 2023 is no exception. In 45 plate appearances within the split, Flores has registered a 190 wRC+.
Value
Matt Mervis, Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $2,300 - To say Jack Flaherty ($7,700) got roughed up in his last start would be an understatement. The veteran surrendered 10 earned runs in just 2.1 innings of work, skyrocketing his ERA to a putrid 6.29 for the season as a whole. Flaherty’s main issues have been two-fold: Walks and left-handed batters. In fact, opposing LHBs have combined to slash .364/.463/.621 with a .462 wOBA. Mervis hasn’t been amazing since his call-up, but he’s cheap and a lefty. That’s all you need tonight.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins, $6,000 - Tatis is red-hot at the moment. The converted shortstop has four extra-base hits in his last three games, including a pair of long balls against the Dodgers on Friday. It’s only a 72 plate appearance sample, but Tatis is batting .290 with a 130 wRC+ since his return from suspension. That’ll play. Speaking of small sample sizes, Louie Varland ($6,800) has surrendered 2.86 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs in his brief MLB career.
Stud
Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $4,800 - I already mentioned Flaherty’s struggles with LHBs, so let’s focus on Happ. Among qualified players entering play on Tuesday, Happ’s 186 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is the fourth-best mark in all of baseball. Happ’s has also taken Flaherty deep in one of his five career at-bats versus the Cardinals’ RHP — if that kind of thing matters to you.
Value
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox, $3,800 - Harris’ 2023 has been odd. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year has slumped at the plate and dealt with injuries, culminating in an underwhelming 85 wRC+ over 51 plate appearances. However, that is not who Harris is. Not only is the sophomore’s .366 expected wOBA much better than his surface stats, but Harris hit .323 with a 161 wRC+ against RHPs in 2022. With Pivetta on the mound for Boston, Harris is far too cheap.
Value
Austin Slater, San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals, $2,700 - Slater is a classic platoon bat. The man simply hits left-handed pitching. Slater is 6-for-9 (.667) within the split in a limited sample in 2023, yet for his career, the 30-year-old sports a 135 wRC+ when getting the opportunity to face a southpaw. If Slater is batting leadoff against Corbin this evening, he’s a no-brainer.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.