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Deuces are wild, as all teams tonight have two wins compiled. The atmosphere in both Boston and Denver will be the opposite of mild. All the stars will come out with hair styled, even B-listers like Olivia Wilde. There will be no predictability like taxes being filed. No, these are the games that turn men into heroes while others curl up like a child. So enjoy these two games and prepare to be beguiled.
Since 1984, and in playoff series tied at 2-2 in a 2-2-1-1-1 format, there have been 67 series that have transpired like the DEN/PHO series, in which the home team won the first two games and then lost the next two. The home team has been 51-16 in that scenario.
In the BOS/PHI series, the home team lost the first game, won the next two and lost Game 4. That scenario transpired 26 times, with the home team posting a record of 20-6.
Joel Embiid ($9,700) is the only notable player listed as questionable on the injury report. Keep abreast of all the injury news @dklive.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the PHI/BOS game with a 213.5 total and the home team Celtics are favored by 7.5 points. The PHO/DEN game has a 228 total with the home team Nuggets are favored by 5.5 points.
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Guard
Studs
Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets ($10,100) – I initially wrote up Jamal Murray ($8,100) here, and for good reasons. The price is great, he’s attempted 25 and 29 shots over the last two games while dishing out dimes and grabbing rebounds. He’s put up 47.25 and 50.5 DKFP. But as I kept writing, I realized that I was leaning towards fading him because he will likely be the highest-rostered player on the slate and things happen. He could tweak an ankle, have a cold shooting night, or he scores 30 DKFP instead of 50. Those are all within the realm of possibility.
Booker is expensive but the ownership could be low. Obviously, everything comes down to roster construction and a multitude of other factors, but when just looking at the guard position, he’s the guy for me. Not only can he put up a 70 or 80-DKFP game, which could keep pace with Nikola Jokic ($11,200), but the floor is relatively high as well.
In these playoffs, Booker has scored fewer than 50 DKFP just twice, and he went for 43.3 and 48.5 DKFP in those contests. He’s gone over 60 DKFP four times with two of those over 70. He likely won’t shoot 14-of-18 and 20-of-25 from the field like in the past two games, but without Chris Paul on the floor, he’s garnering a high usage rate and the assist numbers buttress the downside.
Other Options - James Harden ($8,800), Jamal Murray ($8,100) if the projected ownership numbers come down.
Value
Malcolm Brogdon, Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers ($5,300) – Brogdon may not start, and the playing time does fluctuate from the mid-20s to low-30s, but he is such a vital player for the Celtics off the bench. He’s a skilled offensive player and garners a decent usage rate when on the court. While ceiling games likely won’t be in the cards, the consistency and high floor are very appealing. In the four prior games in this series, he’s gone for 33.5, 28.75, 38.5 and 28.75 DKFP.
Other Options - Marcus Smart ($5,200)
Forward
Studs
Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets ($10,000) – Without Chris Paul, both Booker and Durant have garnered elevated usage rates and offensive responsibilities. And both have responded in big ways. Durant has gone for 64.75 and 66.75 DKFP in the last two games. He has literally done it all, which is the normal M.O. for him. The production has just been super-sized. Durant can get his shot up against any defense and is one of the most prolific offensive weapons in the game. But he also provides rebounds, assists and defensive stats. Like Booker, the floor is relatively high, but he curiously doesn’t access the same kind of ceiling.
Other Options - Jayson Tatum ($9,600)
Value
Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns ($5,800) – There’s always the risk that Malone takes Porter Jr. off the floor because of defense. That said, he’s played 41 and 37 minutes over the last two contests and contributed scoring, rebounds and blocks. His ability to space the floor and get buckets provides a path to ceiling games if he’s engaged in the other aspects. He went for 36 and 41.5 DKFP in Games 3 and 4. Just know that there is volatility here, both in terms of playing time, shooting efficiency and contributions in the periphery categories.
Other Options - Al Horford ($5,700)
Center
Studs
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns ($11,200) – In the last three games, Jokic has gone for 76, 80.75 and 73.5 DKFP. Yawn. The usage rate has been over 40% in two of those contests with a 47.4% mark in Game 4! He’s a nightly triple-double threat that scores 50 points and... Basically, he will likely be the best player on the court and put up the most raw points on the slate. The only questions are: How how will the ownership be and is there enough value to fit him into rosters? Decisions, decisions.
Other Options - Joel Embiid ($9,700)
Value
Jock Landale, Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets ($3,400) – After playing 11 and six minutes in the first two games of the series, Landale has received 22 and 21 in the last two, as his energy, defense and toughness have been huge for the Suns. There’s a good chance that Landale receives the same workload and replicates the 19.75 and 18.75 DKFP he produced in the last two games. Even if he dips down to the 15 DKFP range, Landale would still be one of the better value options on the slate.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.