Just six games on the docket around MLB on Thursday, May 11, as the majority of teams are traveling ahead of their weekend series. But a light slate can’t hold us back from finding some juicy prop bets — here are three of our favorites for today’s games.
MLB player prop bets: Thursday, May 11
Kodai Senga, over 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
Senga has cleared this number in four of his six starts so far this season, and now he gets to face a Cincinnati Reds crew that should be playing its getaway-day lineup — and currently sits among the bottom 10 in baseball in K rate and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Senga’s electric stuff has never been in question — his famed “ghost fork” carries a 55.8% whiff rate on the year — and he should work deep enough into this game to have plenty of opportunities for strikeouts.
(A line for Senga’s walks prop had yet to be released as of this morning, but if it comes in at 2.5 or 3.5 I’d also recommend hammering that — he’s walked at least four batters in his last four starts and carries one of the league’s worst walk rates into Thursday’s start.)
Vinnie Pasquantino, over 1.5 total bases (+105)
Pasquantino has been a bright spot for a suddenly surging(ish) Kansas City Royals lineup, combining big power and a patient approach at the plate to a .922 OPS — including a .936 mark against righties, with six of his seven homers. His opponent today, Chicago White Sox right-hander Mike Clevinger, has had no answer for lefty batters this year, with a .902 OPS allowed that’s nearly 150 points higher than his mark against righties. Clevinger is largely a two-pitch pitcher, ahis slider isn’t really an option without the platoon advantage, which should allow Pasquantino to tee off today.
Bailey Ober, over 15.5 outs recorded (-105)
We’ll continue to take advantage of props involving the San Diego Padres until lines start reflecting reality rather than how starry their names look on a lineup card. We cashed the over on Pablo Lopez’s strikeouts yesterday, and while today’s starter, righty Bailey Ober, is more of a finesse pitcher, he’s a good bet to pitch deep into Thursday’s game.
Despite all those big names, the Friars sit just 21st in baseball in wRC+ against right-handers this season, with the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball. Ober has been great since being recalled from Triple-A in April, with a 0.98 ERA in three starts — while going at least 5.2 innings in every one of those outings. He’s been particularly dominant against righties, with a .111 batting average allowed, and he should have no problem getting into the sixth today.