Another day, another 15-game MLB slate full of potential prop bets. After going 2-for-3 in this space yesterday, let’s get right back to it with our three favorite plays of Tuesday, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
MLB player prop bets: Wednesday, May 31
Jarred Kelenic, over 0.5 total bases (-155)
There obviously isn’t a ton of juice to squeeze at these odds, but sometimes you have to take the layups where you can get them, and -155 is still a far better number than we should be seeing here. The New York Yankees’ scheduled starter on Wednesday night, Clarke Schmidt, has been downright dismal against left-handed batters this year, allowing a slash line of .354/.425/.616 — an OPS more than 300 points higher than his mark against righties.
Smashing the best lefty in whatever lineup happens to be facing Schmidt that day is always a good play, but especially when that lefty is Kelenic, who’s finally showing the potential that made him among the best prospects in baseball not too long ago. The outfielder has put up a .863 OPS this year, including a whopping 25 extra-base hits, and the underlying metrics (.492 expected slugging, 49.5% hard-hit rate) support his breakout. Kelenic has been much better against righties than lefties in his career, and he’s a great bet to tally at least one base knock on Wednesday.
Blake Snell, under 16.5 outs recorded (-125)
Snell is notorious for being one of baseball’s least efficient pitchers; the lefty has an ugly 1.56 WHIP this year, and even when he keeps the walks under control, he’s yet to go more than six innings in a game (and even that mark he’s only hit three times in 10 starts). Given that six-inning ceiling, there isn’t much margin for error for this over — if things go sideways even a little bit, Snell becomes very unlikely to last the 5.2 frames he’ll need here.
And all of that isn’t even considering the lefty’s surprisingly tough matchup on Wednesday night. Snell will be facing a Miami Marlins team that has actually worn out southpaws so far this year, with the league’s fourth-highest team OPS against left-handed pitching — unsurprising considering how righty-heavy their lineup is, from Jorge Soler to Garrett Cooper to the red-hot Bryan de la Cruz. Simply put: Snell will need his A game to hit this number, and I’m just not confident it shows up.
Hunter Brown, over 7.5 strikeouts (+115)
Yes, this is a giant number, the highest on the slate today — but given plus odds, I’m willing to take the leap. Among the top pitching prospects in baseball entering the year, Brown has turned it on of late, with strikeout totals of 8, 9 and 10 over his last three starts. He’s cleared at least seven six times in 10 outings this year, so he’s more than capable of hitting this over, and he’ll have a dream matchup in which to do so on Wednesday night. The Minnesota Twins have struggled against righty pitching all year, with a 26.3% strikeout rate against right-handers that’s tied for the highest in the league. They’ve been in a big funk lately, striking out at a whopping 32.2% clip overall in the past two weeks — again tops in baseball. If Brown has his slider and curveball working today, he should hit this number pretty easily.