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Padres vs. Cubs: Picks, predictions, how to watch Thursday’s game

We go over how to watch Thursday’s game between the Padres and Cubs and make some picks.

Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres Photo by Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images

The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs square off on Thursday with first pitch set for 2:20 p.m. ET. The game takes place at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois and will only be available on local TV or through an MLB.tv subscription. The Padres will start Joe Musgrove, while Matt Swarmer will throw for the Cubs.

San Diego (40-24) exploded for a combined 31 runs in the first two games of this series including 19 in last night’s victory. Musgrove has been fantastic this season with a 1.50 ERA and a 7-0 record through 11 starts. San Diego cracked the top-10 in offense as the Padres score the ninth most runs per game (4.7) this season, and Manny Machado was one of five Padres hitters who recorded 3 hits last night and hit a home run with a team-high 4 RBIs.

Chicago (23-39) is struggling to stay competitive in games during this nine-game losing streak, allowing at least 8 runs in four of their last five games. Swarmer is a rookie making his fourth start and has a 4.24 ERA over 17 innings. He’s allowed 9 home runs so far on the season, including 6 against the New York Yankees in his last outing. Chicago ranks 19th in runs per game (4.3), and Ian Happ is coming off a 3-hit performance in last night’s game.

Padres vs. Cubs

Pitchers: Joe Musgrove vs. Matt Swarmer
First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
Padres local broadcast: Bally Sports San Diego
Cubs local broadcast: Marquee Sports Network
Live stream: MLB.tv (subscription)

Odds, picks & predictions

Run line: Padres -1.5 (-115)
Run total: 10.5
Moneyline odds: Padres -175, Cubs +150

Moneyline pick: Padres -175

The Cubs are impossible to bet on right now with how bad their pitching has been recently, and it’s tough to see that getting fixed Thursday afternoon given how often Swarmer has allowed home runs through a limited sample size. The pitching advantage favors the Padres heavily, and there’s a lot to like about them despite a rather low payout if they win this one.

Player prop pick: Manny Machado Under 0.5 home runs (-250)

Betting on home run player props can be a dangerous game, but you can get decent odds on Machado not going yard in this matchup. He homered last night but has just 3 home runs since May 22. This is good value even against a pitcher who has struggled with the home run ball.

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