How a Bettor Profited Off Aaron Judge’s Walk-Off Home Run on DraftKings Sportsbook

A DraftKings Sportsbook bettor made a timely bet on Thursday night, resulting in a good-sized profit. Focusing on the New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals game, the bettor turned $50 into $400 with a live MLB bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.

The bettor made the following live bet at +700 odds:

• Aaron Judge to hit a Home Run

The bet was placed right before Judge’s final at-bat in the bottom of the 9th inning.

There are some advanced statistics that support this being a sharp bet. Judge was facing Royals relief pitcher Scott Barlow, who has below-average fastball velocity by the standards of the typical relief pitcher. Barlow’s fastball is averaging 93.4 mph this season, which is below the league average fastball velocity of 94.2 mph for relief pitchers.

Judge has been among MLB’s best hitters against below-average fastball velocity. On fastballs tracked less than 94 mph by the league’s pitch tracking system, Judge has hit .349 with an incredible .952 slugging percentage. Judge’s wOBA—a more advanced hitting statistic—is .552 against fastballs less than 94 mph, which is the top mark among qualified hitters. The league average wOBA vs. fastballs less than 94 mph is .354, roughly 200 points less than Judge’s incredible mark. Overall, 15 of Judge’s 38 home runs coming into tonight’s game have been against fastballs of less than 94 mph.

Judge ambushed a first-pitch fastball from Barlow that was a tick higher than his average velocity at 95 mph, but Judge barreled it anyway, sending the ball 109.6 mph off his bat deep into the Bronx night. The home run traveled an estimated 431 feet.

Judge’s long dinger was clearly gone the second it left his bat, which you can tell from the crowd reaction in this video from the first row at Yankee Stadium:

Judge entered the day as one of the betting favorites to win the American League MVP award on DraftKings Sportsbook, and he’s powered the Yankees to an incredible 67-33 record. The Yankees’ run differential is an MLB-best +197, which means the Yankees have outscored their opponents by 197 runs on the season. As a result, the Yankees are the favorite to win the American League at +170 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, and they rank second to only the Dodgers in World Series Winner odds (+380).

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.

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