Evaluating the Sacramento Kings at the All-Star Break

The NBA Trade Deadline and All-Star Weekend have come and gone, so that means we’re in the home stretch of the 2019-20 NBA season. In this serious post-All-Star Break, we’ll go over the outlook for every team in the NBA. Here, we’ll provide a short glimpse at championship odds and playoff chances for each team on DraftKings Sportsbook. Also highlighted are key injuries to note and a fantasy basketball player to watch the rest of the season.

Where do the Sacramento Kings stand at the All-Star Break?

Record: 21-33
Playoff Chances: 1.2%
Championship Odds: +25000
Division Odds: +50000
Conference Championship winner: +15000
Sixth man of the year odds: Bogdan Bogdanovic (+10000)

The Kings are 13th in the Western Conference and sit seven games out of the eighth seed. By possession adjusted point differential, the Kings have been the ninth worst team in the league this season. They rank ninth worst offensively by points scored per possession and 10th worst defensively by points allowed per possession. The Kings’ style of play also dramatically shifted from last season to this season under a new coaching staff, as they’ve fallen to the fifth slowest pace after playing the third fastest pace last season. The slow pace has resulted in less fantasy scoring opportunities for the Kings and their opponents.

Prediction: The Kings tank in the second half of the season to chase better lottery odds

Key Injuries for Sacramento Kings

Marvin Bagley III, PF/C (foot) — out
Richaun Holmes, C (shoulder) — out
Alex Len, C (hip) — out
Jabari Parker (shoulder) — out

Sacramento’s most notable injury is to Bagley, who has dealt with a lingering foot issue all season. Bagley has played in just 13 games because of injuries, and with the Kings’ playoff probability nearly non-existent, there is no reason to rush Bagley back. Bagley was the second overall pick in the 2018 draft and is considered a key young piece for the Kings going forward.

Holmes’ injury has also been a loss for the Kings, as he has been a highly productive player. Sacramento’s numbers are much better with Holmes on the court, as they have scored about six more points per 100 possessions and have a positive point differential when Holmes is playing. Holmes is dealing with a labral tear in his shoulder and is expected to be out until at least the end of the month, if not longer. If the Kings look to tank in the second half, there would be no reason to rush Holmes back.

Fantasy basketball spotlight: De’Aaron Fox

Fox’s 38.6 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFP) per game is best on the Kings. Recently, the Kings elected to stagger Fox and Buddy Hield’s minutes by moving Hield to the bench. Fox’s usage rate is a heavy 31% in minutes with Hield off the court this season, up from 27% with Hield on the court, and staggering the two allows Fox to get more volume in the offense. In 10 games since Sacramento moved Hield to the bench, Fox’s usage rate sits at 31%, a boost from 28% in previous games. Provided this continues, Fox is a candidate for boosted fantasy scoring in the second half.

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