Who is playing?
Tua Tagovailoa returned to the field for the Dolphins (4-3) for last week’s 16-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers as he completed 21-of-35 passes for 261 yards with a touchdown. Miami snapped a three-game losing streak but moved to 4-0 in games where Tagovailoa is healthy for the majority of the game.
The Lions (1-5) will look to avoid a fifth consecutive loss, and their offense has gone silent with just six combined points in their previous two games. They’re coming out of a 24-6 loss to the Dallas Cowboys as Jared Goff committed four of the team’s five turnovers. That defeat looks even worse considering Detroit was coming out of the bye week.
What are playoff picture/draft order implications?
The Dolphins would be the No. 6 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today, and they’re in a good position to make a run at the postseason especially with their QB1 back on the field. Miami forfeited one of its draft picks for 2023, but the Dolphins have the San Francisco 49ers first round pick. As for the Lions, they’re in line for a high draft pick once again with the worst record in the NFL to this point of the season. Detroit also has the Los Angeles Rams first round pick.
Game pick — Dolphins to win
The Lions offense has quickly returned to a real mess after a real strong start, and they haven’t scored a touchdown since October 2nd. It’s hard to find a reason to pick Detroit against a Dolphins team with a healthy Tagovailoa, who came out hot and could be in the middle of a career year.
Dolphins vs. Lions odds and predictions
Point spread: Dolphins -3.5
Total: 51.5 (over priced at -110, under priced at -110)
Moneyline: Dolphins -190, Lions +160
Betting splits: Info on spread splits from https://www.vsin.com/betting-resources/daily-betting-insights-for-mlb-nba-nhl/ (add this Saturday night)
Dolphins vs. Lions statistics
Points per game: 21, 19th
Passing yards per game: 281.6, 3rd
Rushing yards per game: 85.4, 29th
Points allowed per game: 23.6, 23rd
Passing yards allowed per game: 255.1, 24th
Rushing yards allowed per game: 103.3, 8th
Points per game: 24.3, 9th
Passing yards per game: 249.5, 9th
Rushing yards per game: 145.7, 7th
Points allowed per game: 32.3, 32nd
Passing yards allowed per game: 249.3, 22nd
Rushing yards allowed per game: 162.8, 31st
Dolphins vs. Lions injury report
Questionable: TE Tanner Conner (knee), S Clayton Fejedelem (groin), CB Xavien Howard (groin), P Thomas Morstead (illness), DE Emmanuel Ogbah (back), TE Durham Smythe (hamstring)
Out: S DeShon Elliott (finger), DE Charles Harris (groin), CB Mike Hughes (knee), CB Chase Lucas (ankle), S Ifeatu Melifonwu (ankle), T Matt Nelson (calf)
Questionable: G Jonah Jackson (neck), WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (concussion)