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Betting Dolphins-Bills against the spread in the 2023 NFL Wild Card round

We make a pick against the spread and break down Dolphins-Bills predictions in the Wild Card round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs.

Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

The No. 2 Buffalo Bills will host the No. 7 Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium in the AFC Wild Card round on Sunday, Jan. 15.. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET, and the Dolphins enter as major underdogs.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami’s starting quarterback, remains in concussion protocol and has been ruled out for the matchup. The Dolphins will start third-stringer Skylar Thompson, as backup Teddy Bridgewater is still recovering from a finger injury on his throwing hand.

The Bills are 13.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 43.5.

ATS Pick: Bills -13.5

This is a major spread, but for good reason — it’s the playoffs, the Bills’ starting lineup is healthy and on a seven-game winning streak, the Dolphins are missing their starting quarterback and may be missing running back Raheem Mostert with a hand injury, and the Bills have home field advantage.

Buffalo has been 2-3 against the spread in their last five home games (including the neutral site game against the Browns). No spread has been under 6.5 points in their favor, and the two spreads that they covered were 7.5 points against Cleveland and eight points against the Patriots.

This might inspire some to push the Dolphins to cover, particularly given that the teams’ first two matchups this season were decided within three points. But the Dolphins are an entirely different team without Tagovailoa, and as they go up against a Bills passing defense that has been outstanding through December and January with a defense of their own that allows the sixth-most yards per game in the NFL, Miami is severely outmatched.