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Betting Chiefs-Jaguars against the spread in the 2023 NFL Divisional round

We make a pick against the spread and break down Chiefs-Jaguars predictions in the Divisional round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs.

AFC Wild Card Playoffs - Los Angeles Chargers v Jacksonville Jaguars Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jan. 21.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs are listed as 8.5-point home favorites. We’ll break down how to approach that spread below.

ATS Pick: Chiefs vs. Jaguars

These teams met earlier in the season (Nov. 13), and the Chiefs won that game at home by a score of 27-17. However, Kansas City only covered the spread in 2-of-8 games from that point to the end of the regular season. The Chiefs finished with a 6-10-1 ATS record that included going 2-10 against the spread vs. the AFC.

The Jaguars were pretty much the opposite of the Chiefs, as Jacksonville got hot down the stretch to make the playoffs. Because of that, the Jags covered the spread in five of its last six games, including the 31-30 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week (as two-point underdogs). All in all, Jacksonville went 8-5 ATS as an underdog this season.

The Jaguars have plenty of momentum to keep things interesting on the road. Ultimately, Kansas City should pull this one out, but the Jaguars will hang around and cover the spread when it's all said and done. Look for a seven-point victory from the Chiefs.

The Pick: Jaguars +8.5