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Will the NFC East champ even get to 7 wins?

There is a greater than zero percent chance we could have someone win the NFC East with a 4-12 record.

What is next for the Dallas Cowboys?

The NFC East is a mess this season, but that won’t stop us from getting the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles in a primetime matchup to kick off Week 7. The teams will open the week on Thursday Night Football at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.

This is one of a handful of critical remaining weeks for the division. The 1-4-1 Eagles host the 1-5 Giants on Thursday, and 1-5 Washington hosts 2-4 Dallas on Sunday. The Cowboys currently lead the division, but by the end of Sunday, any of the four teams could be in first place.

The division is currently on track to have a sub-.500 winner. This would not be the first time a team with a losing records made the playoffs, but one has to wonder just how bad the division could get. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering odds on the division champ’s win total. As of TNF morning, the total is set at 7.5. The over is priced at -150 while the under is priced at +123.

There are some winnable non-division games on each of the four NFC East schedules. Philly tied the Bengals while the remaining three teams still have to play them. The Cowboys travel to face a bad Vikings team while Washington travels to face a shaky Bears team and host an inconsistent Panthers team. Other than that, there’s not a lot there. Philly and New York both still face Cleveland, but while the Browns can’t beat good teams, they have impressed against bad teams.

If the four teams did not win any remaining non-divisional games, there is a non-zero percent chance we could have a 4-12 team win the NFC East. I suspect we see at least one or two more wins than that, but betting under on 7.5 is not the worst idea in the world — particularly with the juice on the over.

If you’re looking to play around with the numbers, here is a table with some projections for the remaining weeks of the schedule for each of the four teams.

NFC East, pre-Week 7 projections

Week DAL DAL result PHI PHI result NYG NYG result WFT WFT result
Week DAL DAL result PHI PHI result NYG NYG result WFT WFT result
1 @ LAR 0 @ WFT 0 vs PIT 0 vs. PHI 1
2 vs. ATL 1 vs. LAR 0 @ CHI 0 @ ARI 0
3 @ SEA 0 vs. CIN 0.5 vs. SF 0 @ CLE 0
4 vs. CLE 0 @ SF 1 @ LAR 0 vs. BAL 0
5 vs. NYG 1 @ PIT 0 @ DAL 0 vs. LAR 0
6 vs. ARI 0 vs. BAL 0 vs. WFT 1 @ NYG 0
7 @ WFT 0 vs. NYG 0 @ PHI 1 vs. DAL 1
8 @ PHI 0 vs. DAL 1 vs. TB 0 BYE 0
9 vs. PIT 0 BYE 0 @ WFT 0 vs. NYG 1
10 BYE 0 @ NYG 0 vs. PHI 1 @ DET 0
11 @ MIN 0 @ CLE 0 BYE 0 vs. CIN 0
12 vs. WFT 1 vs. SEA 0 @ CIN 0 @ DAL 0
13 @ BAL 0 @ GB 0 @ SEA 0 @ PIT 0
14 @ CIN 0 vs. NO 0 vs. ARI 0 @ SF 0
15 vs. SF 0 @ ARI 0 vs. CLE 0 vs. SEA 0
16 vs. PHI 1 @ DAL 0 @ BAL 0 vs. CAR 0
17 @ NYG 1 vs. WFT 1 vs. DAL 0 @ PHI 0
5 3.5 3 3

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