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How bad can the NFC East get — Week 10 edition

There is a decent chance a team wins the NFC East with no more than six total wins.

New York Giants defensive end Leonard Williams (99) and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence (97) sack Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (11) during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

The NFC East remains an abject disaster coming out of Week 10. The Philadelphia Eagles remain in first place, but with a 3-5-1 record and a miserable performance against the New York Giants, it’s hard to see them getting over to .500 or even to the .500 mark by the end of the season.

Sub-.500 teams have won divisions in the NFL over the past decade. In 2010, the Seattle Seahawks went 7-9 to win the NFC West, while in 2014 the Carolina Panthers went 7-8-1 to win the NFC South. Interestingly enough, both teams won their Wild Card round game and then lost in the Divisional round.

This year, we could very well see a six-win team take home the NFC East. The division stands as follows:

Philadelphia Eagles: 3-5-1
New York Giants: 3-7
Washington Football Team: 2-7
Dallas Cowboys: 2-7

We put together a spreadsheet of schedules for the four teams and through ten weeks, there is not only a good chance of a six-win team winning the division, but it’s entirely possible a five-win team takes home the division.

In the scenario below, nobody wins a non-divisional game the rest of the season. The most winnable non-divisional game on the schedule is Cincinnati. The Eagles tied the Bengals, while the remaining three NFC East teams still have to play them. Washington hosts the Bengals in Week 11, the Giants travel to Cincinnati in Week 12, and the Cowboys travel to Cincinnati in Week 14. There’s a decent chance one of those three gets a win against the Bengals.

Other than that, there’s not much else very winnable. The Cowboys travel to face an up-and-down Vikings team in Week 11. Washington had a chance to upset the Lions, but were stunned in the closing seconds. Next week’s Bengals game might be their last best chance to win a non-divisional game.

Running the numbers with only divisional wins, I have a 5-10-1 Eagles squad winning the East, with the 4-12 Cowboys finishing in second, the 3-13 Giants in third, and 2-14 Washington in fourth. The dream is alive!

2020 NFC East schedules

Week DAL DAL result PHI PHI result NYG NYG result WFT WFT result
Week DAL DAL result PHI PHI result NYG NYG result WFT WFT result
1 @ LAR 0 @ WFT 0 vs PIT 0 vs. PHI 1
2 vs. ATL 1 vs. LAR 0 @ CHI 0 @ ARI 0
3 @ SEA 0 vs. CIN 0.5 vs. SF 0 @ CLE 0
4 vs. CLE 0 @ SF 1 @ LAR 0 vs. BAL 0
5 vs. NYG 1 @ PIT 0 @ DAL 0 vs. LAR 0
6 vs. ARI 0 vs. BAL 0 vs. WFT 1 @ NYG 0
7 @ WFT 0 vs. NYG 1 @ PHI 0 vs. DAL 1
8 @ PHI 0 vs. DAL 1 vs. TB 0 BYE 0
9 vs. PIT 0 BYE 0 @ WFT 1 vs. NYG 0
10 BYE 0 @ NYG 0 vs. PHI 1 @ DET 0
11 @ MIN 1 @ CLE 0 BYE 0 vs. CIN 1
12 vs. WFT 0 vs. SEA 0 @ CIN 1 @ DAL 1
13 @ BAL 0 @ GB 0 @ SEA 0 @ PIT 0
14 @ CIN 0 vs. NO 0 vs. ARI 0 @ SF 0
15 vs. SF 0 @ ARI 0 vs. CLE 0 vs. SEA 0
16 vs. PHI 0 @ DAL 1 @ BAL 0 vs. CAR 0
17 @ NYG 1 vs. WFT 1 vs. DAL 0 @ PHI 0
4 5.5 4 4