The NFL hopes to open its 2020 season on time, but some or all of their teams can expect to be playing home games without fans in the stadium. Each locale is implementing different rules, and on Thursday, the Green Bay Packers announced their plans to start the season.
The Packers will have no fans at their first two home games, and will re-evaluate the situation after that for their third home game. The Packers first two home games are Week 2 Sunday against the Detroit Lions and Week 4 Monday Night Football against the Atlanta Falcons. They don’t play at home again after that until Week 8 against the Minnesota Vikings.
DraftKings Sportsbook has provided lines for five of the Packers games this season, but only two home games. They are six-point favorites in Week 2 against the Lions and two-point favorites in Week 13 against the Eagles.
In sports betting, home field advantage is viewed as being worth roughly 2.5 to 3 points. Some teams like the Seahawks, Saints, and Chiefs have a more significant advantage than other teams. The Packers draw well and have a loud crowd so it’ll be around a field goal, maybe more depending on the weather and the oddsmaker.
DK Sportsbook oddsmaker Johnny Avello said he would cut a home field in half with no fans in the stands. There is still benefit of knowing your home stadium and locker room, and not having to travel, so you still get some benefit to playing at home. But, it will not be nearly what it would be if there were fans in the stands.
If the Packers lose 1.5 points in home field advantage, we could see the Lions line drop to a field goal. They’ll likely be favorites against the Falcons when that line comes out, but Atlanta remains a perpetually difficult team to sort out. Now that we know there won’t be fans at the game, the eventual line will likely reflect that.
Not all lines are created equal and plenty will change between now and each game, so this some basic projection for the time being. However, sportsbooks have yet to make a move with the potential for no fans in the stand, so there could be some value to be found in early lines.
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