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The NFL schedule should be released May 11th or very close to then, but we already know the teams who will match up. Thankfully we don’t need dates to calculate strength of schedule, which we have done below.
In years’ past, strength of schedule (SOS) has been calculated by the previous year’s winning percentage of all a team’s opponents combined. That number can give you a round about look at how tough your team’s schedule is, but it takes out a lot of important factors. Those factors mostly revolve around changes each team makes or has thrust upon them during the off-season.
Those changes can be getting injured players back and healthy, impact draft picks, coaching changes, and trades. And to really do SOS as well as possible, you need a way to project each team based on that new information.
The win total and Super Bowl odds that Sportsbooks give are my favorite way we have to have some kind of uniform look at the upcoming season.
Win Total SOS
I prefer win total SOS to the rest, so we’ll start there. During the upcoming 2023 NFL season, the teams with the easiest schedules also happen to be teams in the NFC South, the Falcons and Saints to be exact. The NFC South gets to face the AFC South, along with their own wretched division. They also get the now Aaron Rodgers-less NFC North.
Sure, there are good teams on their schedule and teams that could outplay their win-total, but in context, they are by far the top beneficiaries of an easy schedule this season. Derek Carr landed in a much better situation than the AFC West this year.
The AFC East has the toughest schedule this season, as they face their own division with the Bills, Dolphins and Rodgers led Jets. Plus, they get the AFC West and NFC East, you know, where the two Super Bowl attendees came from last season.
Super Bowl odds SOS
I would rather use win totals than Super Bowl odds for SOS, but it is still better than going with last year’s win percentage. We do get similar results, especially at the extremes, with the AFC East and NFC South at those extremes.
Last year’s win percentage
Win percentage has quite a few differences from the other methods. One of the biggest are the Super Bowl runner-ups, the Eagles. They will face the toughest win percentage schedule in the league, but rank 24th in win-totals and 13th in Super Bowl odds. This discrepancy runs true for all of the NFC East teams.
The easiest schedules remain similar, as the NFC South matchups are truly awful in comparison to most of the league.
2023 NFL Strength of Schedule
| Teams | Win totals | Win total rk | Super Bowl odds | Super Bowl Rk | Opp Win % | Win % Rk | Avg Rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Win totals | Win total rk | Super Bowl odds | Super Bowl Rk | Opp Win % | Win % Rk | Avg Rk |
| Miami Dolphins | 155.5 | 1 | 11.06 | 1 | 0.554 | 2 | 1.3 |
| New England Patriots | 155.5 | 1 | 11.06 | 1 | 0.549 | 3 | 1.7 |
| Buffalo Bills | 153.5 | 3 | 12.00 | 4 | 0.542 | 7 | 4.7 |
| New York Jets | 151.5 | 6 | 13.41 | 9 | 0.545 | 6 | 7.0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 152.5 | 5 | 13.06 | 7 | 0.524 | 10 | 7.3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 153.5 | 3 | 11.94 | 3 | 0.512 | 16 | 7.3 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 151.5 | 6 | 12.18 | 5 | 0.517 | 12 | 7.7 |
| Washington Commanders | 150.5 | 10 | 12.88 | 6 | 0.535 | 8 | 8.0 |
| New York Giants | 146.5 | 17 | 13.35 | 8 | 0.549 | 3 | 9.3 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 151.5 | 6 | 15.12 | 14 | 0.519 | 11 | 10.3 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 146.5 | 17 | 14.41 | 12 | 0.549 | 3 | 10.7 |
| Denver Broncos | 149.5 | 12 | 13.82 | 10 | 0.517 | 12 | 11.3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 151.5 | 6 | 14.24 | 11 | 0.497 | 18 | 11.7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 144.5 | 24 | 14.71 | 13 | 0.566 | 1 | 12.7 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 146.5 | 17 | 15.29 | 15 | 0.533 | 9 | 13.7 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 150.5 | 10 | 16.41 | 18 | 0.484 | 21 | 16.3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 145.5 | 21 | 16.12 | 17 | 0.517 | 12 | 16.7 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 148.5 | 13 | 16.59 | 20 | 0.51 | 17 | 16.7 |
| Green Bay Packers | 147.5 | 14 | 15.94 | 16 | 0.476 | 24 | 18.0 |
| Cleveland Browns | 147.5 | 14 | 16.41 | 18 | 0.46 | 26 | 19.3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 147.5 | 14 | 18.53 | 25 | 0.483 | 22 | 20.3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 146.5 | 17 | 16.94 | 22 | 0.47 | 25 | 21.3 |
| Detroit Lions | 143.5 | 25 | 16.82 | 21 | 0.495 | 20 | 22.0 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 140.5 | 28 | 17.06 | 24 | 0.514 | 15 | 22.3 |
| Chicago Bears | 140.5 | 28 | 16.94 | 22 | 0.497 | 18 | 22.7 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 145.5 | 21 | 19.47 | 28 | 0.477 | 23 | 24.0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 145.5 | 21 | 19.06 | 26 | 0.448 | 28 | 25.0 |
| Houston Texans | 142.5 | 26 | 19.35 | 27 | 0.431 | 30 | 27.7 |
| Carolina Panthers | 140.5 | 28 | 19.65 | 29 | 0.453 | 27 | 28.0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 142.5 | 26 | 20.35 | 30 | 0.434 | 29 | 28.3 |
| New Orleans Saints | 132.5 | 31 | 23.00 | 32 | 0.427 | 31 | 31.3 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 131.5 | 32 | 21.47 | 31 | 0.417 | 32 | 31.7 |