This article originally appeared on Lucky Trader: Reignmakers Week 12 Breakdown
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- Justin Fields (shoulder) is not expected to play today, according to a late night report from ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The Bears will go with Trevor Siemian at QB this week to take on Mike White, who replaces Zach Wilson at the position for the Jets.
- The Cardinals activated Marquise Brown (foot) from IR yesterday, and Brown is expected to play in Week 12. Brown’s return is a welcomed development for the Cardinals, who are without Zach Ertz (knee) and Rondale Moore (groin), while Greg Dortch (thumb) remains questionable.
- Leonard Fournette has been ruled out this week due to a hip injury, making rookie Rachaad White a popular fantasy play this week. White is fresh off a 22-105-0 rushing performance in Week 10, before Tampa Bay’s Week 11 bye.
- Ja’Marr Chase (hip) will likely need at least one more week before he is able to return to the field. Chase was able to practice in a limited capacity this week for the first time since being injured and he should have a good shot to return in Week 13.
- Josh Jacobs was a late-week addition to the injury report this week with a calf injury, but he is expected to play this week, according to Schefter. Jacobs was limited in Friday’s practice this week due to the injury.
- Deebo Samuel – listed questionable with a hamstring injury – is expected to play against the Saints following a week of limited practice sessions.
- Allen Robinson II (ankle) is not expected to play today. He’ll join Matthew Stafford (concussion) and Cooper Kupp (ankle) on the sidelines as the depleted Rams take on the Chiefs.
Week 12 Headlines
- No teams are on bye this week, but six teams play on Thanksgiving: Buffalo, Dallas, Detroit, Minnesota, New England and the New York Giants.
- The Panthers make a change at QB, but does it even matter?
- Justin Fields (shoulder) could either play this week or miss the rest of the season, according to early reports on his injury.
- Is Rachaad White now the RB1 in Tampa?
- The Falcons will be without Kyle Pitts (knee) for the foreseeable future.
Bengals at Titans, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
The Titans’ passing attack finally got back on track last week vs. the Packers, exceeding 300 yards through the air for the first time all season. The team was buoyed by the best performance of Treylon Burks’ young career (7-111-0), and the rookie may have staked his claim on the team’s WR1 role moving forward. It was only the second time all season that Burks had out-targeted Robert Woods (8-7), and Burks still has more room for growth based on his 50% snap share in Week 11. Tennessee is also well-positioned for the playoffs, and it’s hard for me to find too many arguments against Burks right now.
You don’t need me to tell you Derrick Henry is a strong play, but he is showing up as an early-week value, based on Lucky Trader’s price estimates.
The Bengals have a couple of key injury situations to keep an eye on heading into Week 12. Joe Mixon was forced from last week’s game with a concussion, and his Week 12 availability will come down to whether or not he is able to return from concussion protocol before Sunday. If Mixon is unable to go, Samaje Perine would be a strong play.
We’re also keeping an eye on Ja’Marr Chase as he works his way back from a hip injury suffered in Week 7. Head coach Zac Taylor on Monday said of Chase, “It is truly a day-to-day situation,” leaving Chase’s Week 12 status up in the air. Tee Higgins has been the big beneficiary with Chase out of the lineup — Higgins’ target share has increased in each of the games Chase has missed, culminating in last week’s 35% mark. If we get good news on Chase this week, I will be looking to buy his player cards at the earliest opportunity. Now stripped of his SuperStar status, Chase could be one of the most valuable assets in Reignmakers once he is healthy.
Best Buy: Treylon Burks ($1.95, $10.50, $110, $400, $1,888.90)
Broncos at Panthers, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
The Panthers gained only 232 yards of total offense in last week’s loss vs. the Ravens, and the Panthers will be making the switch to Sam Darnold at QB this week. Regardless of who the Panthers have under center, they’re one of the worst offenses in the league, and this week, they’re up against arguably the toughest defense in the league. No thanks.
The Broncos emerged from last week’s loss vs. the Raiders short-handed at running back after waiving Melvin Gordon and losing Chase Edmonds to an ankle injury. Latavius Murray was able to rush the ball 17 times for 49 yards and a touchdown in Week 11, and the team will likely work Marlon Mack into a backfield rotation in Week 12.
As long as Jerry Jeudy (ankle) remains out, Courtland Sutton is the only receiving option I feel confident about on a full slate of games, though Greg Dulcich does have some appeal in Deep Roster and Showdown formats.
Best Buy: Courtland Sutton ($3.98, $18, $175, $1,112, $4,000)
Bears at Jets, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Zach Wilson threw for only 77 yards in last week’s loss to the Patriots and it’s hard to find any bright spots in the passing game even given the team’s switch to Mike White under center this week. Garrett Wilson still has upside, and I won’t blame you for taking a shot on him. But between the Jets’ declining playoff odds, Corey Davis’ (knee) eventual return, and the general ineptitude of the offense, there are enough reasons for me to lay off. And as long as Michael Carter and James Robinson remain in a timeshare, it’s hard for me to get excited about the rushing attack, as well.
For the Bears, all eyes will be on Fields, who was headed for an exam on his shoulder after last week’s game. Fields described the pain he felt in his shoulder as “pretty bad,” but he was not spotted with a sling. For now, I am considering him questionable to play in Week 12.
Should Fields be held out, Trevor Siemian would likely get the start at QB. Chicago’s offense would be less dangerous overall without Fields, but it’s possible Siemian may offer similar production to Fields through the air (but without Fields’ elite rushing ability). Any way you slice it, it’s hard to build a case for Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool or Cole Kmet this week against a tough Jets defense.
The fantasy community was bullish on David Montgomery in his first game without Khalil Herbert, who was placed on IR with a hip injury. But Montgomery’s Week 11 rushing share was more or less in line with his season average (40%), with rookie Trestan Ebner absorbing Herbert’s role.
Best Buy: None
Texans at Dolphins, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
The Texans enter Week 12 as double-digit road dogs vs. the Dolphins, and it’s hard to feel optimistic about any of the team’s fantasy assets in this one. Dameon Pierce continues to function as one of the true “workhorse” backs in today’s NFL, but as the Texans fell behind last week, that was worth only 10 carries for eight rushing yards. It’s unlikely the game script will favor Houston in this one, either, so I am keeping my expectations in check on Pierce.
If there is a bright spot for Houston’s offense, it might be Nico Collins, who has commanded a 26% target share over the past two weeks while setting a season-high in snap rate (86%) in Week 11.
The set up couldn’t be much better for the Dolphins, who are coming off a Week 11 bye to face the lowly Texans this Sunday. The most interesting development of late for Miami has been the transition to Jeff Wilson Jr. in the backfield. After matching Raheem Mostert in carries (9-9) in Wilson’s first game as a Dolphin, Wilson Jr. out-carried Mostert 17-8 in Week 10. Mostert’s 28% snap share in that game was his lowest of the season, and it certainly feels like this is a changing of the guard in the Miami backfield.
In the passing game, not much analysis is needed. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have combined for a 53% target share this season, and the Miami double-stack (Tua Tagovailoa-Hill-Waddle) remains one of the highest-upside combos in the league.
Best Buy: Nico Collins ($1, $5, $39.99, $269, $1,899.99)
Ravens at Jaguars, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Those who expected Devin Duvernay to absorb the target volume left behind by Rashod Bateman (foot) have been disappointed so far. While Duvernay has only two targets in two games since Bateman’s injury, journeyman Demarcus Robinson has posted a 25% target share over that same time frame. Robinson has never found fantasy relevance over an extended period, but there’s no denying the opportunity is there. In Mark Andrews’ first game back from a shoulder injury, he looked no worse for the wear, exceeding his season average in snap share while commanding a 25% target share in Week 11.
Running back remains messy while the team navigates injuries to Gus Edwards (hamstring) and J.K. Dobbins (knee), and it’s hard for me to imagine buying into this backfield over the short term. Lamar Jackson is currently the 13th-most expensive quarterback in the Reignmakers Marketplace (using CORE Genesis floor prices), and that feels a bit low to me early in the week.
For the Jaguars, Christian Kirk feels like a WR1 once again after he posted an identical 31% target share in Weeks 9 and 10 while racking up 181 receiving yards over that time. Beyond Kirk, Zay Jones and Marvin Jones Jr. have traded big weeks and are both probably off the radar on a slate of this size, while Evan Engram has fallen after an early season surge.
Travis Etienne Jr. had his worst game since the James Robinson trade in Week 10 before Jacksonville’s bye, but his underlying usage was in line with his previous games, and he’s set up as a bounce-back candidate this week vs. the Ravens.
Best Buy: Lamar Jackson ($10, $47.49, $445, $2,099, $17,000)
Buccaneers at Browns, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
In what will likely be Jacoby Brissett’s last start of the season before Deshaun Watson (suspension) makes his Browns debut, Cleveland is listed as a 3.5-point dog to the visiting Bucs. Amari Cooper has notoriously performed much better at home, and he has a high ceiling in this one. Donovan Peoples-Jones is more of a boom-bust option and probably not necessary on a Sunday main slate.
At tight end, I do have some interest in David Njoku, who was limited to a 37% snap share in his first game back from an ankle injury. I’d expect Njoku to return to the 80-90% snap range, where he lived earlier in the season, as he puts his ankle issue behind him. In the backfield, there’s no movement on the Nick Chubb-Kareem Hunt committee, which Chubb continues to lead by a comfortable margin.
The key development for the Bucs before their Week 11 bye was the distribution of carries at running back, where White appeared to leapfrog Leonard Fournette, out-carrying him 22-14 in Week 10. After the game, The Athletic’s Greg Auman said he expects White to start moving forward, but “who gets more touches rest of the way hinges on who produces.” Unfortunately, the market has already reacted to this news, and White’s cards are currently more expensive than Fournette’s at each rarity tier.
With the Bucs looking more and more likely to make the playoffs by way of winning the NFC South, I’m more open to buying Mike Evans and Chris Godwin player cards now as long term holds. Both players are a little underpriced based on their early week price tags, according to Lucky Trader’s price estimate tool.
Best Buy: Mike Evans ($6, $30, $289.99, $1,700, $6,999)
Falcons at Commanders, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
The Commanders are now 4-1 over their past five games since Taylor Heinicke took over for Carson Wentz (finger), and they find themselves back in the thick of the playoff hunt. With that being said, Heinicke has not exactly lit the world on fire — he has exceeded 215 passing yards in just one of those five games while the team has primarily leaned on its defense.
As Washington leans into its rushing attack, both Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. have exceeded 11 rushing attempts in each of the past three games. Although this is a true committee backfield, as long as game flow goes Washington’s way, both backs can be used moving forward.
The Falcons will be without Kyle Pitts after an MRI performed Monday revealed a torn MCL. Pitts’ absence does make Drake London more intriguing to me, and the rookie is showing up as an early week value in Lucky Trader’s price estimates. I also have some interest in Cordarrelle Patterson, but he is a risky play based on his inconsistent usage. Last week, Patterson played on 49% of the team’s snaps and saw 30% of the team’s rushing attempts, and that’s simply not enough volume in an offense that has not been high-scoring this year.
Best Buy: Drake London ($1.75, $10, $98.99, $390, N/A)
Chargers at Cardinals, Sunday 4:05 PM ET
The Chargers got their top two receivers back last week when Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both returned to the lineup from injuries. But unfortunately, Williams aggravated his ankle injury during the game and was forced to leave in the first half. Head coach Brandon Staley said after the game that the aggravation is not considered significant, but I’m considering Williams questionable at best for now. Allen, on the other hand, looked great on a 68% snap share, going 5-94-0 on eight targets, which was good for a 28% target share.
After Williams left, Josh Palmer turned in his best performance of the season, leading the team in targets, receptions, yardage and touchdowns. He’ll be in play as a FLEX option on the Sunday slate if Williams is held out of Week 12.
Austin Ekeler posted his highest rushing share of the season last week (63%), but Joshua Kelley (knee) is expected to return to the lineup soon. In his last game before being injured, Kelley rushed the ball 10 times in Week 5. Of course, you’re not worried about Ekeler’s usage moving forward, but this may be the high watermark for his rushing usage on the season.
The Cardinals are fairly depleted on offense coming into Week 12, dealing with key injuries at multiple positions. The most concerning of the group is Kyler Murray’s hamstring injury, which kept him on the sidelines in Week 11. Murray was a limited participant in practice each day last week, and he was not ruled out until game day. With Arizona’s playoff hopes on life support, I’d expect Murray to be back in the lineup this week.
In the passing game, Zach Ertz (knee) will miss the rest of the season, while the statuses of Rondale Moore (groin) and Marquise Brown (foot) are unclear. The beneficiaries in Week 11 were A.J. Green and Greg Dortch, but with so much up in the air, the only player I’d be comfortable buying in this offense right now is DeAndre Hopkins.
Best Buy: Keenan Allen ($4, $17, $315, $1,999, N/A)
Raiders at Seahawks, Sunday 4:05 PM ET
The Raiders were once again a two-man show on offense, featuring Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs in last week’s win vs. the Broncos. Adams has now met or exceeded a ridiculous 35% target share in three consecutive games, and his lowest yardage total over that stretch has been 126. Adams is locked and loaded as the clear WR1 on a Sunday main slate that will be without Justin Jefferson, who plays on Thanksgiving, Cooper Kupp (ankle) and potentially Chase, who is working his way back from a hip injury.
In the backfield, Jacobs hit the rare 100% rushing share in Week 11, handling all 24 carries for the Raiders and finishing with 109 rushing yards. The Raiders have three prime-time games coming up in December, and I like both Adams and Jacobs as mid-term buys.
For the Seahawks, Kenneth Walker III had his worst performance since taking over as the lead back before the team’s Week 11 bye, but he’s still priced as the RB9 (using CORE pricing), and that feels about right. DK Metcalf, on the other hand, feels like a screaming buy to me at his early-week WR31 price point.
Best Buy: DK Metcalf ($3.60, $20, $250, $1,450, $7,250)
Saints at 49ers, Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Andy Dalton was efficient in the Saints’ Week 11 win vs. the Rams, completing 21 of 25 passes for 260 yards and three touchdowns, and last week, head coach Dennis Allen said Jameis Winston (back) is unlikely to be 100 percent healthy at any point this season. Dalton’s job feels safe for now, but it would not be a complete shock to see New Orleans go back to Winston at some point down the stretch.
Chris Olave had another strong performance with a 5-102-1 line on six targets, but his usage has been on the decline since Jarvis Landry returned to action two weeks ago. In the backfield, the team added David Johnson as depth after losing Mark Ingram to a knee injury in Week 8, but Alvin Kamara’s workload has remained flat regardless of who he is sharing the backfield with.
While so many offenses around the league are depleted by injuries, the 49ers are essentially rolling out an All-Star team every week. Starting at running back, Eli Mitchell has returned from a knee injury to out-carry Christian McCaffrey in each of the last two weeks, but CMC has maintained value in the receiving game, where he has exceeded a 20% target share in every game since his San Francisco debut.
In each of the two games that Deebo Samuel and CMC have been healthy, Samuel has exceeded a target share of 20% and a rushing share of 10%, while Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will likely seesaw back and forth in their usage.
Best Buy: Deebo Samuel ($6, $29.99, $200, $1,099, $8,000)
Rams at Chiefs, Sunday 4:25 PM ET
The Rams find themselves multi-touchdown dogs vs. the Chiefs, as the defending Super Bowl champs’ season continues to circle the drain. Already without Kupp (ankle), the Rams lost Matthew Stafford to the concussion protocol for the second time in three weeks. Given the Rams’ bleak playoff hopes, it seems reasonable to assume the team will bring Stafford back slowly this time. On a 12-game Sunday main slate, Los Angeles feels like a full fade here.
On the other side, injuries are starting to pile up for the Chiefs. Already without JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) and Mecole Hardman (abdomen), the team also lost Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) and Kadarius Toney (hamstring) to in-game injuries last week.
Of those players, Hardman is on IR, so we know he will miss Week 12. CEH also seems unlikely to play after his injury was described as a high ankle sprain, an injury that typically requires a multi-week absence. It’s hard to handicap Toney’s odds of playing early in the week, but he’s been plagued by hamstring injuries dating all the way back to Week 2 when he was still a member of the Giants. Smith-Schuster’s availability will come down to whether or not he can clear the concussion protocol in time following the big hit he took in Week 10.
What does that mean for this week? Isiah Pacheco already felt like an ascendant player. With CEH likely out of the lineup, he looks like a top option this week. In the receiving game, Travis Kelce will continue to see all the targets he can handle, while Skyy Moore and Justin Watson are candidates to fill in gaps at the receiver position.
Best Buy: Isiah Pacheco ($3.42, $24.99, $124, $1,112, $2,500)
Packers at Eagles, Sunday 8:20 PM ET
The Eagles won with defense, defeating the Colts 17-16 in Week 11, but DraftKings Sportsbook expects them to get back to their high-scoring ways in Week 12 with an implied team total of 26 points vs. the Packers.
Although Jalen Hurts is limited in Reignmakers by his SuperStar tag, he’s currently only the seventh-most expensive QB in the marketplace (using CORE Genesis pricing), and that feels a bit low, especially since he will be the only SuperStar-eligible player in this week’s Sunday night Showdown slate.
In Hurts’ first game without Dallas Goedert (shoulder), a season-high 69% of his passes went to the duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, while Philly’s tight end group combined for only one target — which went to Jack Stoll. Quez Watkins got into the end zone last week, and he’s an okay boom-bust flier in this week’s Showdown.
In the first game after Christian Watson’s breakout Week 10 performance, the rookie’s target share fell from 42% to 16%, but he still had a great fantasy performance with 48 yards and two touchdowns. It was also encouraging to see him above an 80% snap share for the second week in a row. That usage is coming at the expense of Sammy Watkins, who had previously been in the 80% range before plummeting to 33 and 36% during Watson’s ascent. Allen Lazard continues to chug along, but as a non-week winner on a team that is not guaranteed to make the playoffs, it’s hard for me to make a strong case for Lazard at the moment.
Aaron Jones is No. 7 in targets from the running back position this season, and while AJ Dillon remains a little too involved for my liking, Jones looks like a moderate buy based on early week prices.
Best Buy: Jalen Hurts ($11, $59, $649.99, $5,000, N/A)
Steelers at Colts, Monday 8:20 PM ET
This week’s Monday Night showdown slate features what is projected to be a low-scoring affair between two teams with losing records.
For the Colts, Matt Ryan is currently priced as QB28 in the Reignmakers Marketplace, and while I have no interest in Ryan as a long-term hold, that seems like a reasonable price to pay for a starting QB on a Showdown slate. Michael Pittman Jr. is the obvious stacking partner to pair with Ryan, but Parris Campbell has also carved out a consistent role for himself in the offense. Alec Pierce logged a team-high eight targets his last time out, but I’d view him as more of a boom-bust option on this week’s slate. Jonathan Taylor is the most elite option on the slate, but he’s appropriately priced. Since Taylor is no longer a SuperStar, my plan is to “go down a tier” with him when building lineups this week (meaning, I will use his CORE card in RARE contests, his RARE card in ELITE contests, and so on).
For the Steelers, Diontae Johnson has now been held under a 20% target share in back-to-back games as Pat Freiermuth and George Pickens have increased their usage in the offense. Freiermuth remains a great option in Deep Roster contests, and he’s in play on this week’s Showdown slate, while Pickens makes sense as a contrarian Captain play due to his boom-bust profile.
After being written off by the fantasy community, Najee Harris racked up 116 scrimmage yards with two touchdowns in Week 11 after Jaylen Warren was forced from action due to a hamstring injury. If Warren is held out in Week 12, Najee will look like one of the better values on the Monday slate.
Best Buy: Najee Harris ($3.99, $18, $199, $850, $2,999)
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