With the Wild Card Series only being three games, we have a number of teams on the brink of elimination today. The Reds, Cubs, Padres and Brewers all need a win to stay alive while the White Sox and Athletics will go down to the wire in today’s Game 3.
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EDITOR’S NOTE: Today’s game between the Marlins and Cubs has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yu Darvish, $9,700, CHC (-180) vs. MIA (+155) — Only three games were available on the DraftKings Sportsbook as I wrote this up Thursday morning. Darvish and the Cubs were the biggest favorites on the board, as they attempt to salvage their season down 1-0 to the Marlins. Darvish was essentially lights out this season but did get hit around a bit in the month of September. We’re still talking about someone who had a .248 wOBA and a 2.43 FIP in that month so let’s not think he was bad by any means. Simply compared to the first couple months of the season, the 11 runs were the most he gave up through 33 innings in September. The Marlins ended the season just above league average in K% against righties at 24.2% but I still imagine Darvish will be one of if not the most popular option today.
Other notable favorite: Zach Davies (-167) vs. Cardinals
Highest Projected Total
STL (+140 3.5 runs ) vs. SDP (-167; 4.5 runs ) — It’s quite the feat when a team can hit the over on their team total in the first inning of the game and that’s exactly what happened yesterday with the Cardinals. Chris Paddack was a total disaster yesterday, giving up six runs on eight hits through 2 1⁄3 innings. That was too much for the Padres to overcome and now they’re on the brink of elimination. Adam Wainwright ($7,800) posted some really solid numbers this year and has a .266 wOBA and a 3.73 FIP on the road this season, which spanned 24 innings. Nine runs feels to be a bit high for two pitchers that have thrown extremely well this season but then again, who expected 11 yesterday? This slate doesn’t give many stacking options so the Padres, with the 4.5 total, may end up having to be one.
Marlins @ Cubs - Light rain near the beginning of the game that shouldn’t cause much of an issue. It looks as if you can target this game without any worry.
Splits to Start
UPDATE: With teams mostly caught up on games, these numbers will now reflect the 2020 stats.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Dane Dunning, .332, 4.79
Luis Castillo, .329, 3.80
Mike Fiers, .318, 5.04
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Ian Anderson, .201, 1.75
Zach Davies, .222, 3.34
Sixto Sanchez, .232, 1.99
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Mike Fiers, .346, 4.83
Sixto Sanchez, .329, 5.09
Zach Davies, .317, 4.42
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dane Dunning .204, 3.35
Yu Darvish, .230, 0.98
Luis Castillo, .248, 1.52
Pitcher to Build Around
Yu Darvish, CHC vs. MIA, $9,700 — Some really good pitching options taking the mound today but Darvish is by far the strongest option. With the season on the line, they’ll turn to their ace to face a Marlins team against righties posted a .303 wOBA, a .128 ISO and a 24.2% K%. You can almost always depend on Darvish to go deep into games as well, as he pitched at least six innings in all but one of his starts in 2020, which was his first start against the Brewers. I don’t think you have to overthink this, Darvish is your guy.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Trent Grisham, SDP vs. STL, $5,000 — The way to go after Wainwright is with lefties. Despite him posting only a .283 wOBA, he also had a 5.29 FIP and seven of his nine total home runs allowed. Grisham posted his best power numbers at home against righties with a .260 ISO while hitting six of his 10 home runs. Home runs were starting to creep up on Wainwright near the end of the season, giving up six over his final five starts.
Save Big by Drafting
Jedd Gyorko, MIL at LAD, $3,600 — This will be a very interesting matchup as the Brewers have some very, very good hitters against lefties. Gyorko is one of those names after posting an extremely impressive .425 wOBA with a .378 ISO and five of the nine home runs he hit. I’m not actively looking to target against Clayton Kershaw ($9,400) but we do know about his shaky postseason track record. While he only pitched at Dodger Stadium for a total of 14 1⁄3 innings, Kershaw did have a .385 wOBA and a 6.19 FIP here.
Favorite Team To Stack
Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics (vs. Mike Fiers) — Fiers was not strong at home this season through 20 1⁄3 innings. In that scenario, he allowed a .373 wOBA with a 5.70 FIP and three of the nine home runs he allowed. Righties gave him the most trouble during the season as well, tagging him with a .346 wOBA and a 4.83 FIP. The White Sox are simply loaded top to bottom with their lineup and Fiers has to be the weakest pitcher on this slate. While the White Sox team total was unavailable as I write this, I would have to guess it’s at least 4.5.
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