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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 4

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 4 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

I don’t know about you guys but I’m really looking forward to Week 4. This NFL slate is absolutely bursting with massive totals on DraftKings Sportsbook, as seven of the 12 games have at least a 50-point projection (RIP to the DST spot). Let’s get into all the information you need for your DraftKings lineups ahead of what should be a week full of that sweet, sweet fantasy goodness.

Feel free to drop me a follow as well on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]


EDITOR’S NOTE: Sunday’s Patriots-Chiefs game has been postponed, with the game scheduled to be played Monday night at 7:05 p.m. ET.


Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Baltimore Ravens (-770; -13) at Washington Football Team (+600)

Is this such an incredible line? The Ravens are bigger than big favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook as they travel on the road to Washington. Gone is the thrashing they endured from the Chiefs and they’re onto Week 4. I mean, these teams simply aren’t on the same level, with the Washington Football team averaging just over 20 points per game and the Ravens at 30.3. When it comes to points allowed, Washington is giving up an average of 27 while the Ravens are at 18.7. I’m trying to figure out a spot where Washington could give Baltimore some trouble and I’m struggling. Their pass rush has been good! This loss of Chase Young is a huge blow but they have five other players with two sacks each. However, to be fair, Jackson has been just as good under pressure with a 69.6% completion rate as he’s been without with a 68.5% completion rate. So in closing, yeah, this should be a big fantasy day for the Ravens.

Other notable favorites: Los Angeles Rams (-590; -13) vs. New York Giants (+475), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-315; -7.5) vs. L.A. Chargers (+270)


Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Cleveland Browns (25.5 points) at Dallas Cowboys (30.5 points; -4.5) 56 points

The Cowboys are one again involved in the highest projected scoring game of the slate on DraftKings Sportsbook. They’re 2-1 at hitting the over this season, covering by an average of 7.3 points. The Browns are also 2-1 at hitting the over on the game total and covering by an average of 8.8 points. Despite the Cowboys being the favorites in this one, we have to talk about just how BAD their secondary has been. It’s hard to find a corner you don’t want to target against with an opposing receiver. Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800) and Jarvis Landry ($5,100) should really be looked at this week. The Cowboys have allowed an average of 52.7 (!) DKFP to opposing receivers. They’ve been scored on seven times, which tops the league while giving up an average of 202 yards per game and a 67.2% catch rate. In a game script where the Browns are behind, this is a perfect team to target against. Believe me, the Browns’ secondary is not one to fear either and loading up on Cowboys is a mighty fine idea as well. I guess this is more of targeting the Browns playing from behind and not having much issue getting the ball downfield.


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DVP Matchups

This section will highlight the average DKFP allowed to each position. These numbers will now reflect the current 2020 season.

Worst QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, 10.7, 1st
Indianapolis Colts, Chicago Bears, 13.1, 2nd
Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, 14.6, 3rd

Best QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, 33.3, 31st
Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, 26.6, 30th
Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, 24.8, 29th

Worst RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, 17.9, 3rd
Washington Football Team, Baltimore Ravens, 18.3, 4th
Los Angeles Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 18.6 5th

Best RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Buffalo Bills, Oakland Raiders, 45.5, 32nd
Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, 44.2, 31st
Minnesota Vikings, Houston Texans, 33.4, 29th


Worst WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, 25.9, 1st
Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, 27.2, 2nd
Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, 27.9, 3rd

Best WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, 79.2, 32nd
Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, 52.7, 31st
Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings, 48.9, 29th

Worst TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, 9.2, 1st
Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, 13.1, 3rd
Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, 16.1, 4th

Best TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints, 28.3 32nd
Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, 19.3, 30th
Washington Football Team, Baltimore Ravens, 18.8, 29th


Target Report

Week 3 Target Leaders

Week 17 Playoff Implications

Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Dalls Cowboys New York Giants DAL -3 45 Winner goes to playoffs if PHI beats WAS
Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers CLE -9 42 CLE W needed
Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills BUF -3.5 43 MIA W needed
Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals BAL -12.5 44 BAL W needed
Arizona Cardinals LA Rams ARI -3.5 40.5 Winner goes to playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts IND -14 49.5 IND W needed
Tennesse Titans Houston Texans TEN -7.5 56 TEN W to clinch AFC South
Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears GB -5.5 51 GB W locks No.1 Seed & Bye
New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers NO -6.5 47.5 NO shot at No.1 Seed
Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers SEA -6.5 46 SEA shot at No.1 Seed

DraftKings Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings, $6,600 — The perception of Watson and the Texans couldn’t be lower right now and this is the perfect time to jump on using him. The Texans opened up with brutal three-game schedule against the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers. Even in those tough matchups, Watson averaged 264 passing yards, a 67.4% completion rate and 16.3 rushing yards. Now it eases up immensely against a very generous Vikings secondary that’s allowed an average of 10.3 YPT to opposing receivers. This game also has a huge 54.5 total with the Texans favored by 4.5 points, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. His upside is too good to ignore in Week 4.


Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Will Fuller V, Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings, $5,900 — Fuller is your classic boom-or-bust option on a week-to-week basis. After being blanked in Week 2 against the Ravens, Fuller caught four of his five targets in Week 3 for 54 yards and a touchdown, good for 15.4 DKFP. Fuller should see CB Kris Boyd in coverage, who started his first game last week and allowed all three targets against him to be caught for 52 yards. Fuller is simply too cheap for this matchup against a secondary that’s allowed the third-most receiving yards in the league thus far and five touchdowns scored.


Top Running Back To Consider

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions, $8,000 — This is such a great spot for Kamara, who continues to destroy opposing run defenses thus far. Already averaging a ridiculous 36.6 DKFP on the season, he now faces a Lions team that’s allowed an average of 24.5 DKFP to opposing running backs. Kamara has been seeing an immense number of targets thus far as well, seeing 14 last week without Michael Thomas on the field. While there is a slight chance Thomas can play, Kamara has essentially been matchup proof with or without Thomas. Kamara’s targets have accounted for just under 30% of Drew Brees’ ($5,800) pass attempts, making his PPR upside one I cannot pass up.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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