It’s Week 5 in the NFL and it’s time to take a good, hard look at some more winning player props. Once again, I’m finding opportunities in the quarterback rushing yards market and love one running back to find the end zone versus a struggling defense at near-even odds. Here are my five favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Once upon a time, there wasn’t much of a doubt Minshew would rush for 20 yards — in 2019, he failed to do so only six times. So far this year, he hasn’t been as much of a threat, averaging just over 17 yards per game on the ground. That will change this week with a fantastic matchup against Houston, which owns the worst rushing defense in football. averaging 182 yards per game allowed. James Robinson’s total is very juiced, so take a look at Minshew, who is just as much of a part of this rushing offense when it’s humming along. This pass rush and passing defense are actually quite effective, which should lead to Minshew rolling out of the pocket and using his legs a whole lot.
I will ask you this: What other option do the Jets have in this game? Their starting quarterback will be Old Man Flacco and they’re still without many of their wideouts (although Jamison Crowder will be in there on Sunday). The indication is that Bell will be free of any restriction since the plan all along was for him to return in Week 5 when first eligible. The Cardinals rank 14th against the run and 23rd against the pass according to DVOA, so this is a soft matchup to boot. Bell should receive at least 15 carries in this game, meaning even the weakest of efforts from the league’s former top back will find him rushing for 40 yards. Bell might hit this before the midway point of the second quarter.
I know, I’ve been the one shouting from the heavens to take the over on Daniel Jones rushing yards all year. Well, the books have caught on to the fact that Jones opts to use his legs a whole lot and now we’re looking at what is a pretty high total. Russell Wilson managed just 22 rushing yards against Dallas in Week 3 and Baker Mayfield had six yards in Week 4. The Cowboys’ defense has gone seven straight weeks without allowing a quarterback to run for this total, dating back to Week 14 of last season, and Jones won’t be the one to break the trend. He’s only averaging 4.5 rushes per game this season, so it’s not as if he’s rushing at a crazy rate or anything like that. I think he rushes four times and Dallas holds Jones to modest gains.
This seems like a ridiculous number until you look at what Seattle’s defense has been doing this season. The Seahawks allowed 450 yards to Matt Ryan in Week 1, 397 yards to Cam Newton in Week 2, 472 yards to Dak Prescott in Week 3 and 315 yards to Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 4. Cousins has been flirting with this total so far this season and he should get it here against an incredibly weak secondary. He has the arm talent, the weapons and the motivation to get a win on Sunday with Minnesota beginning to turn the season around.
This price is pretty, pretty good. Philly has allowed an average of 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game, its rushing defense is average-to-below average so far in 2020 and Conner has scored in each of his past two games, carrying the ball an average of 17 times in those two contests. The Steelers’ odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook (-335 ML; -7) imply they should have no problem winning this football game, so game script should fit into Conner getting a ton of work. That should increase his odds of finding the end zone.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.