We’re trying something a bit new this year, as I’ll be taking a season-long ride we’re calling “The Bankroll Challenge.”
Basically, I’ll start with 50 units to wager on DraftKings Sportsbook for this NFL season and try to build that bankroll as large as possible. In order to do that, I’ll save the majority of my bankroll to use week-to-week, but betting futures has been profitable for me in recent seasons, so I’ll want to sprinkle some of that in as well.
This article is going to be where my most confident plays go, so while a best bets article may highlight the top five bets to consider one week, this is the place I’ll be posting selective bets that I’m most confident in, along with a unit amount.
This article will also be a running blog, so look for more plays to be dropped in throughout the week with fresh updates.
You can find my NFL Futures bets for the Bankroll Challenge here.
After a good start, we’re coming off back-to-back duds. I put a lot of thought into this week, and as much as we want to jump into plus units, we can’t force it. The Week 5 board is difficult to begin with, and COVID-19 complications aren’t making things any easier on us. Here are the positions I feel are worth investing in.
ARI -7 (-110) — risk 1.65 to win 1.5
As I wrote up in Best Bets, this is about as square a position as you can take on Week 5, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong. Betting the Cardinals will probably be the most public play in Week 5, but you can’t talk me out of fading the Jets. Sam Darnold, Joe Flacco, whatever. As long as Adam Gase is the head coach, I’ll continue fading. The Jets are 0-4 ATS, failing to cover by more than 10 points per game. Maybe the Cardinals aren’t the breakout team we thought they’d be after the 2-0 start, but they’re in a spectacular position to bounce back from consecutive losses, both as slight favorites.
NYG Team Total: OVER 22.5 (-110) — risk 1.65 to win 1.5
Say what you want about Daniel Jones and this Giants offense, but this is a completely different spot than they’ve been in all season. The G-Men have faced the Steelers, Bears, 49ers and Rams so far, all loaded with talent on defense. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have surrendered 42 points per game over the past three weeks, giving Danny Dimes his first positive matchup of the season. Jones has put up some massive games in the past, and this feels like a spot he can get the offense going for 23-plus. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants score 35 in this game.
Kareem Hunt Rushing Yards: UNDER 74.5 (-112) — risk 1.68 to win 1.5
Hunt will be a popular DFS play this week with Nick Chubb sidelined and could be where some eyes go for player props. While Hunt can make plays as a pass-catcher and have a big game, I just want to key in on an inflated rushing prop against a top of the line Indy run defense. The Colts are allowing just 77 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth in the NFL, and are coming off a Week 4 showing in which they gave up 28 rushing yards to the Bears. Hunt is averaging 68.8 rushing yards per game this season, so I understand why it may feel uncomfortable betting an under here with Chubb out of the RB rotation, but I don’t think the Browns will lean on Hunt all that much more. He’s already been extremely involved and the rest of Cleveland’s backfield combined for 18 carries after Chubb left last Sunday’s game. That could mean Hunt sees his usual 12 to 15 carries, making this number a tough one to hit against an elite run defense.
BAL/KC/ARI (-118) — risk 2.36 to win 2
Trying to get a cheap win here, but these feel like strong enough spots to trust. The Ravens and Chiefs might not cover double-digit spreads, but they aren’t losing divisional home games to the Bengals and Raiders. And we covered the spot that the Cardinals are in, despite being on the road, the matchup is just too good to get a win. Arizona should be a popular survivor pick this week, and with good reason.
FUTURE UNITS PENDING: 5.88
WEEK 5 UNITS PENDING:
SEASON TOTAL: 11-20 (-10.35 UNITS)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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