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NBA Best Bets: Basketball Picks, Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for Lakers vs. Heat on October 11

Matt LaMarca gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s NBA Finals betting card.

Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat defends LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers during the fourth quarter in Game Five of the 2020 NBA Finals at AdventHealth Arena at the ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex on October 9, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida.  Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

NBA fans were treated to one heck of a game on Friday night. Jimmy Butler went mano a mano with LeBron James and was ultimately able to lead the Miami Heat to a victory in Game 5 of the NBA Finals over the Los Angeles Lakers.

That sets up a Game 6 for Sunday at 7:30 p.m. ET. Can the Heat pull off another upset and set up a decisive Game 7 or will the Lakers get the job done?

Let’s break down some of my favorite bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s NBA slate.

DraftKings users can get in on the action by betting on DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $750K Finals Shootaround [$200K to 1st] (LAL vs MIA)

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-5) – 214.5 total

Lakers -5 (-112)

The Heat have already overcome so much adversity just to get to this point. They were pretty massive underdogs heading into the Finals, and then they lost Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic during the first game in the series. Adebayo has been able to suit up over the past two games, but he hasn’t looked like the same dominant force that he was vs. the Celtics. Dragic has missed each of the past four games and remains doubtful to play in Game 6.

That has left Jimmy Butler to pick up the majority of the slack, which he’s done admirably. He exploded for a 40-point triple-double in Game 3 and followed that up with a 35-point triple-double in Game 5. Those are the only two games that Miami has won this series, so they likely need another herculean effort from Butler tonight to secure a win.

That said, Butler looked absolutely gassed at the end of Game 5, and he played all but 48 seconds in that contest. It wouldn’t be a huge shock if he’s a bit less explosive in tonight’s contest. Additionally, Butler shot 70% from the field in Game 3 and 57.9% in Game 5, both of which are clearly unsustainable. Butler is great at a lot of things on the basketball court, but he is far from an efficient scorer.

Finally, I would expect the Lakers to lean on their dynamic duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis a little harder in this contest. They probably won’t approach a Butler-level of playing time, but I could definitely see both guys playing the entire second half. LeBron and Davis were both +7 when on the court in Game 5, which means they were outscored by 10 points with those players off the court over approximately six minutes.

This seems like an excellent opportunity to buy low on the superior team. The spread had previously been around 7.5 points with Adebayo active for the Heat, so I will gladly grab the additional spread value in Game 6.

Will Jimmy Butler record a triple-double?

No (-400)

Betting the “no” on props like these can be boring, but I think that it is almost always the correct move from a purely mathematical perspective. Butler has managed to post a triple-double in two of his past three games, but those are the only two triple-doubles he’s recorded during the postseason. He also achieved that feat in just three of 58 games during the regular season. Add it all up, and Butler has failed to record a triple-double in 73 of 78 games this season (93.6%).

The current -400 odds on the “no” translate to an implied probability of just 80.0%, which represents a pretty sizable discrepancy. Even if you want to say his true odds of not recording a triple-double are closer to 85% given the workload he’s commanded recently, that will still make this an appealing bet at the current odds.

Betting the “no” on these props may not make you the most fun at parties, but it will hopefully make you a winner on today’s slate.

Jimmy Butler points vs. Anthony Davis points

Anthony Davis (-110)

This is another bet where I’m looking to sell high on Butler. He has been nothing short of sensational for the Heat in two of their past three games, but he’s still not nearly as good from a scoring perspective as Davis. Both players have outscored the other in two of the first five games, and they tied with 22 points apiece in Game 4. That said, Davis has averaged 28.2 points per game during the postseason compared to just 22.8 points per game for Butler. Davis also had a pretty sizable edge during the regular season (26.1 vs. 19.9). Overall, I’m willing to bank on the long-term success of Davis outweighing the short-term success for Butler in tonight’s contest.

Place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $750K Finals Shootaround [$200K to 1st] (LAL vs MIA)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.