The 1-3 Chargers (3-1 ATS) travel to New Orleans to face the 2-2 Saints (2-2 ATS) on MNF, with the Saints coming down to 7-point favorites and the total sitting at 49.5. Here’s what jumps out on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints
Let’s see where this number settles, but once Michael Thomas was ruled out of this game, it’s been tough to find a spread larger than 7. If it comes back to where it once was (in the 7.5/8 range), then we save some juice, but I actually like buying the hook here and playing the Chargers. The loss to the Panthers is looking a little less embarrassing after what we’ve seen the past few weeks and Justin Herbert was still able to cover against strong competition in the Chiefs and Bucs. I just can’t trust this New Orleans defense, even coming off a cover in Detroit. The Saints can still move the ball without Thomas but are far less lethal in terms of blowout potential. The Chargers probably should have upset the Bucs if it weren’t for some crucial mistakes. Expect them to clean it up a bit and remain competitive in this game.
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Henry is averaging 57.3 yards per game since Herbert became the starter in Week 2, but his production has slid each week, catching just 2-of-4 targets for 39 yards in Week 4. The matchup against the Saints does set up nicely for Henry on paper, but he’d get a slight downgrade if Mike Williams does return from injury. I just can’t overlook how large Kamara’s role as a pass-catcher has been since Thomas got hurt. Kamara finished with a 5-51-1 line through the air with MT in Week 1 and the following two weeks posted 9-95-0 and 13-139-2 as a receiver. He slowed down with just three receptions for 39 yards in Week 4, but I think that game was more of an outlier. It’s not even close who has the higher ceiling here and we get him at plus money. Kamara averages over 80 receiving yards per game and is out-targeting Henry by two per game. The numbers say that the Saints struggle to defend TE, but most of that production game in one game to Darren Waller.
All aboard the Josh Kelley train! Austin Ekeler’s absence opens up about 20 touches per game, and while those will be spread around, Kelley should benefit more than anyone. Justin Jackson will undoubtedly step into a larger role, but let’s not forget that Kelley saw 25 touches back in Week 2 even with Ekeler in the lineup. I think there’s some good value in backing his props in this one, especially against a defense like the Saints.
With a total around 50, Ekeler would probably be around -150 to score a touchdown in this game. Kelley shouldn’t be priced much differently, but is. The yardage props are plays based on an upward tick in expected volume. Ekeler was targeted 11 times out of the backfield in Week 3 and then Kelley hauled in three passes for 26 yards last week, even with Ekeler playing during the first half. Kelley rushed for 60 yards in each of the first two games of the season and gained 43 yards on just eight carries in Week 3. Tampa’s stout run defense is the only one to really keep Kelley in check so far. I expect Kelley to see about 15 carries in this game, making a 50-yard game very likely.
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