We’ve got more playoff baseball on Wednesday, with both the ALCS and NLCS in action in the evening. While we do have two games, I’m choosing to load up on a couple of bets in one particular game. With that in mind, here are my favorite MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
I’m going to go back to the well once again with the Astros; it just seems impossible Tampa Bay’s luck will continue like this. Houston left 10 runners on base again in its Game 3 loss, bringing the three-game total to a whopping 31, and has out-hit Tampa Bay 26-18 over the course of the series. Game 2 really should have been a 1-0 win, with Yuli Gurriel’s inexplicable error with two outs eventually leading to a three-run homer which proved to be the Rays’ only offense, and a throwing error by Jose Altuve in Game 3 on a double-play ball allowing a big inning to take place that never should have. We can talk about how great Tyler Glasnow’s Statcast data looks, but the Astros have been hitting just about everyone this postseason. This is a play based solely on the odds of the Rays’ dumb luck continuing; it just does not seem possible they can ride this to another win. It also doesn’t hurt that Zack Greinke is pitching for the Astros, who allowed a tough homer in Oakland the last time we saw him but was otherwise solid in that game.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
Yes, I’m taking another bet on the same game, because I have no interest in touching Braves–Dodgers tonight. Kyle Wright might be the hardest pitcher on the slate to trust, especially against a great Dodgers offense, and there’s no way I’m laying -195 on the moneyline.
That decision brings me here, to a bet that has been profitable this postseason and in years past. Not only was Greinke’s K/9 mark up to 9.0 this season for just the fifth time in his 17-year career (he failed to hit the over 4.5 just four times), but he hit this mark four out of his five starts last postseason. He has yet to go over four strikeouts this postseason, but that’s due in large part to the team exercising caution with his arm, which has been giving him trouble. He should go at least five innings in an elimination game considering how taxed the Astros’ bullpen is, and also given the fact that Greinke is pretty fresh, only throwing 79 pitches on eight days of rest in his last outing and having a full five days of rest before this one. He should last long into this game with no fatigue to speak of and against a lineup which really has not hit the ball all too much in this series.
As long as Greinke goes five innings, which he absolutely should, the odds are in your favor here. This line is a little off.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.