We’re trying something a bit new this year, as I’ll be taking a season-long ride we’re calling “The Bankroll Challenge.”
Basically, I’ll start with 50 units to wager on DraftKings Sportsbook for this NFL season and try to build that bankroll as large as possible. In order to do that, I’ll save the majority of my bankroll to use week-to-week, but betting futures has been profitable for me in recent seasons, so I’ll want to sprinkle some of that in as well.
This article is going to be where my most confident plays go, so while a best bets article may highlight the top five bets to consider one week, this is the place I’ll be posting selective bets that I’m most confident in, along with a unit amount.
This article will also be a running blog, so look for more plays to be dropped in throughout the week with fresh updates.
You can find my NFL Futures bets for the Bankroll Challenge here.
We bounced back with a solid 3-1 week for 2.14 units, but the Chiefs held us back from winning big. It’s another pretty tough week to cap in my opinion, but hoping for some player props to open up some value as we get closer to Sunday. I think there are some spreads worth getting in early on, though.
I’m not going to lock this one immediately in hopes it comes back to -3, but there’s no doubt for me that the Rams are the right side, despite being the square side. The lookahead line here was SF as a three-point favorite, so there isn’t any value on betting the Rams here. Jimmy Garoppolo was clearly brought back too early from his injury, and should be better this week. But we may have to come to grips with the idea that the 49ers are just awful this season. It’s not their fault. They’re completely ravaged by injuries. But this team has only defeated the Jets and Giants, with losses to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins. That’s about as easy a schedule as you could ask for. The Rams are out to a strong 4-1 start, and are a tough penalty in Buffalo away from a 5-0 start. In a year home field means less than ever, I’m fine laying the points here with the far superior team.
Both teams are in need of a bounce-back win after being upset in Week 5. The Chiefs have plenty of flaws, but the Bills looked incompetent on defense in Tennessee on Tuesday, and now get a weird short week to prepare for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs responded well to losses last season, going 3-1 ATS. Go back and look at what Ryan Tannehill was able to do to this secondary without two of his top-three WR, then consider the potential Mahomes brings into this game. The Bills are getting a little too much respect against the class of the AFC.
The Dak Prescott ankle injury sucks, but this line is way too over-adjusted for his absence. Andy Dalton is the most capable backup in the NFL, and made big plays down the stretch to move the ball downfield for the game-winning field goal last week. He’s no Dak, but Dalton took the Bengals to the playoffs five years in a row, and certainly can keep the Cowboys on pace to win this putrid NFC East. Dallas was supposed to be a three-point favorite in this one, so the five-point swing feels like too much. After an encouraging 2-0 start, the Cardinals lost consecutive games as favorites (and they get zero credit for beating the Jets last week). This will be Arizona’s third straight road game, which is also almost always a recipe for disaster. This one should close around a pick’em, so get the points while you can.
FUTURE UNITS PENDING: 5.88
SEASON TOTAL: 11-20 (-8.21 UNITS)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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