Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here most weeks too, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Aaron Rodgers ($7,500) – Davante Adams ($8,000) – Ronald Jones Jr. ($6,000)
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers has already thrown for three or more touchdowns in three games so far this season, and he is expected to get his best weapon back this week in Davante Adams. The Packers’ team total here sits at a hefty 27.25 points — fifth highest on the slate — and while Rodgers’ value takes a bit of a hit at his hefty $7,500 salary, his upside here should actually be improved with Adams in the lineup. Tampa Bay’s defense has been great this year but still show some funnel tendencies and allowed rookie Justin Herbert to throw for three touchdowns on just 25 attempts — and complete 80% of his passes — against them two weeks ago. Adams has a tough matchup on paper against emerging CB Carlton Davis, but Davis (abdomen) is already looking iffy to play after missing practice on Wednesday. Even if he does play, Adams has proven nearly unstoppable when Rodgers is locked in like this, and the matchup will only serve to keep Adams’ ownership suppressed in a game that has the highest O/U (54.5) on the slate.
On the other side of the ball the Tampa Bay’s Ronald Jones has now handled 46 touches and seen 14 targets over the Bucs last two games. Green Bay rates out as the seventh-worst defense against the rush in both DVOA stats (via Football Outsiders) and from a YPC against basis, making this a seemingly great matchup for a Jones breakout. Rodgers and Adams look certain to carry limited ownership, but if you want lower owned pieces here to complete a game stack, Tyler Johnson ($3,400), Scotty Miller ($4,200) and Jamaal Williams ($4,000) all make for potential solid fourth wheels. You’ll need to watch the injury news on the TB receivers play out this week before making a call on any one of them.
Just Missed: Matthew Stafford ($6,300) – Laviska Shenault Jr. ($5,200) – Kenny Golladay ($6,200)
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons ($6,100)
Cousins is as pure a matchup play as you can get this week at QB. Priced just over $6K, Cousins will take on an Atlanta defense that has allowed 335 yards passing per game and the most fantasy points per game to the QB position this year — by an over 5.0-point margin. Cousins has settled down after a terrible start to the year, completing over 70% of his passes over the last two games, and he has thrown for 9.16 yards per attempt over his last three games. The Vikings QB hasn’t been a high volume passer this year, but he may not need to be with explosive rookie Justin Jefferson ($6,000) and a now healthy Adam Thielen ($7,300) going up against an Atlanta secondary that has allowed the second-highest yards per pass attempt against thus far in 2020. With lots of stacking options to pair him with, and ownership that shouldn’t get out of control, given his teams tendency towards the run, the improving Cousins rates out as a nice pay-down target for Week 6 in big GPPs.
Just Missed: Matthew Stafford ($6,300)
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($6,400)
Taylor has been in an RB by committee hell the last few weeks, but the Colts’ loss and issues with poor QB play could see him get more of workload this week against the Bengals. Taylor actually saw his biggest snap share since Week 2 against the Browns, playing on 55% of the snaps, overall, while also seeing three targets in the passing game. While we should expect to see Nyheim Hines ($4,000) out there in certain situations, the fact Jordan Wilkins ($4,000) barely factored in last week, and was limited in practice to start the week, is a great sign that Indy may be ready to start treating Taylor like more of a workhorse in Week 6. Adding to the intrigue here is the matchup with the Bengals, who are still a bottom tier team at defending the run having allowed 5.2 YPC thus far in 2020 (third-worst in the league) With Indy set here as big -8 favorites, Taylor should push for 20-plus touches this week and makes for a great upside play in Week 6.
Damien Harris, New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos ($5,000)
Harris proved in his debut against the Chiefs two weeks ago that he’s unquestionably the RB to target on the Patriots when a run-heavy game script is in the cards. The second-year player took 17-carries against the Chiefs, churning out a 100-yard game and an impressive 5.88 YPC average. While he’s going to share snaps with the likes of James White ($4,800) and Rex Burkhead ($4,600), there’s little doubt that with the Patriots set as -10 home favorites here that Harris will again be in a great spot to produce a similar type of game against the Broncos. Denver has already ceded two 100-yard rush games to RBs this year, and if the Pats defense is able to stifle a banged up and somewhat anemic Broncos offense, you could see Harris dominate the scoring for New England this week.
Just Missed: J.D. Mckissic ($4,400)
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers ($7,000)
The Chicago offense may be a great source of entertainment for proclaimed offensive masterminds on Twitter, but one thing that Chicago has managed to do well this year is get their best receiver the ball. Robinson leads the league in targets coming into Week 6, with 57, and has seen his production rise with Nick Foles ($5,800) at the helm, averaging nine receptions and 104 yards per game since Week 3, when Foles took over. He’s got a fantastic matchup on tap for Week 6, too, as the Panthers could be without their best corner in Donte Jackson, who left last week’s game early. Carolina has one of the worst pass rushes in the league and has allowed other teams WR 1s to dominate with the likes of Calvin Ridley ($7,800), Mike Evans ($6,900) and Keenan Allen all going for over 100 yards against them in recent weeks. Robinson should ball out and his price should help keep ownership low in big GPPs.
Preston Williams, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets ($4,700)
Williams had been a week-to-week disappointment up until Week 5, when he finally broke free against a banged-up San Francisco secondary for 106 yards and a touchdown on just four receptions. Williams was gaining steam last year before an ACL injury ended his year and its possible the 23-year-old may now just be hitting his stride here in the second quarter of the year. Miami’s offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey has made his desire to get Williams more involved well known in the media, and with injuries ravaging the Jets secondary, the second-year player is likely to get matched up against third-string CB Lamar Jackson (no relation to the QB), who got smoked last week when called into duty against Arizona. It may feel like chasing points, but the salary remains low and the matchup dictates an encore performance from Williams is on the horizon.
Just Missed: Justin Jefferson ($6,000)
Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons ($2,500)
Smith was touted as a potential breakout candidate at the start of the year but has seen his 2020 start the same way his 2019 season started, slow. The second-year TE has been held without a catch in two of his four games, but does lead all TEs on the Vikings in targets. Smith did see his involvement increase last week, as he caught a season four passes on five targets and ran a season-high 31 routes. Smith’s boost in usage against Seattle is encouraging considering that he hadn’t run more than 20 pass routes in any of the previous four games for Minnesota. The semi-breakout game comes at a very opportune time, too, as the Vikings are set to play the Falcons this week, a team that has had trouble defending against the pass in all areas of the field. Atlanta has ceded the second-most fantasy points, per game to TEs this year and already allowed seven touchdowns to the position, the most in the league. Available here at the bare-min, Smith makes for a great GPP punt on a Sunday slate in which several of the top-end options at his position aren’t available to use this week.
Just Missed: Trey Burton ($3,100)
New York Giants ($3,200) vs. Washington Football Team
Despite allowing 31 points, the Giants DST had a solid fantasy week against Dallas, recording two turnovers and a defensive touchdown. This unit has actually played quite well to start the year and come in ranked 16th in overall DVOA, 11th in adjusted-sack rate and 12th in sacks, overall. Seeing them put up points, despite the terrible matchup against Dallas, should get us excited for their potential this week, too, as the Washington Football Team look set to start Kyle Allen ($5,100) for the second straight game, a poor downfield thrower who is playing behind an offensive line ranked second last in adjusted-sack rate against and overall sacks allowed. With multiple cheap options like the Vikings ($2,300) and Dolphins ($2,900) gaining some steam — and looking like they’ll be popular plays in large field GPPs— paying up slightly for the Giants should get you low ownership on a DST that has shown signs it could be ready to breakout against a weak offense like the Washington Football Team.
Just missed: Detroit Lions ($3,000)
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.