NFL Best Bets was a perfect 6-0 last week, so we’ll look to carry some of that momentum into Week 6. I think we have a good combination of short favorites and slight dogs to bet on this weekend, and player props should also provide a bit of an edge in certain spots. Here are some NFL bets that jump out in Week 6 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
TEN -3.5 (-103)
Let’s get the red flag out of the way first — Tennessee will be playing on an unusual short week, following a Tuesday night victory over the Bills. Nobody saw that win coming against Buffalo following Tennessee’s COVID-19 outbreak, but the time off seemed to do the Titans well. The good news on the short week is that they won’t be traveling, welcoming in the 1-4 SU/ATS Texans. The Titans have some strange numbers on paper this season, going 1-3 ATS, but 4-0 straight up. The Titans have been much more well-rounded on both sides of the ball this season, but we do have to watch out for Houston in a must-win situation. Dropping to 1-5 would essentially end its season. The Texans have had major issues on defense, though, and the way Ryan Tannehill was able to move the ball without two of his top receivers was encouraging. As we saw on Tuesday, Tennessee does have a little bit of a home field advantage with some fans in the stands.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
MIN -4 (-110)
This is a pretty gross matchup considering each team’s record, but the spot is really strong for the Vikings after looking into it. Atlanta is just 1-4 ATS so far, failing to cover by 7.4 points per game, while the 1-4 Vikings have still managed to find ways to go 3-2 ATS. From a matchup perspective, I do think the Vikings are the better team. Minnesota’s defense stepped up multiple times in Seattle last week, showing it does indeed have a pulse. Kirk Cousins, in the right situations, can make plays through the air, and Atlanta’s secondary is as vulnerable as they come. However, the real trend I’m chasing here is Minnesota off a loss. The Vikings are 2-1 ATS following a loss this season after going 6-0 ATS off a loss in 2019. Trust them at home against a bad team.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
LAR -3.5 (-107)
I’m not going to lock this one immediately in hopes it comes back to -3, but there’s no doubt for me that the Rams are the right side, despite being the square side. The lookahead line here was SF as a three-point favorite, so there isn’t any value on betting the Rams here. Jimmy Garoppolo was clearly brought back too early from his injury and should be better this week, but we may have to come to grips with the idea that the 49ers are just awful this season. It’s not their fault. They’re completely ravaged by injuries. However, this team has only defeated the Jets and Giants, with losses to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins. That’s about as easy a schedule as you could ask for. The Rams are out to a strong 4-1 start and are a tough penalty in Buffalo away from a 5-0 start. In a year home field means less than ever, I’m fine laying the points here with the far superior team.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
KC -4 (-110)
Both teams are in need of a bounce-back win after being upset in Week 5. The Chiefs have plenty of flaws, but the Bills looked incompetent on defense in Tennessee on Tuesday and now get a weird short week to prepare for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs responded well to losses last season, going 3-1 ATS. Go back and look at what Ryan Tannehill was able to do to this secondary without two of his top three wide receivers, then consider the potential Mahomes brings into this game. The Bills are getting a little too much respect against the class of the AFC.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
DAL +2 (-109)
The Dak Prescott ankle injury sucks, but this line is way too over-adjusted for his absence. Andy Dalton is the most capable backup in the NFL and made big plays down the stretch to move the ball downfield for the game-winning field goal last week. He’s no Dak, but Dalton took the Bengals to the playoffs five years in a row and certainly can keep the Cowboys on pace to win this putrid NFC East. Dallas was supposed to be a three-point favorite in this one, so the five-point swing feels like too much. After an encouraging 2-0 start, the Cardinals lost consecutive games as favorites (and they get zero credit for beating the Jets last week). This will be Arizona’s third straight road game, which is also almost always a recipe for disaster. This one should close around a pick’em, so get the points while you can.
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