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NFL Week 6 Odds: Line Movement, DraftKings Sportsbook Football Betting Analysis

Matt Meiselman gives football betting analysis and insight for Week 6 of the NFL, including line movement and betting splits.

The Week 6 edition of DraftKings Sportsbook NFL betting insights and analysis has a major focus on injuries, as several of the NFL’s best teams are being impacted by substantial news involving some of their best players. The game with the highest point total this week on DraftKings Sportsbook is probably the most affected, with some key players returning for both the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As always, you can check back in here on Sunday before kickoff for the latest updates.


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Sunday Line Movement Update

  • The Bears had initially moved from +3 down to +1, but the line is now back up to Panthers -2.
  • The total for Jaguars vs. Lions has dropped down a little from 54.5 to 53, perhaps due to reported windy conditions for the game.
  • Totals have also dropped in Vikings vs. Falcons and Titans vs. Texans.
  • The Washington Football Team had initially moved from +3.5 to +2.5 against the Giants, but the movement has continued through the weekend and Washington is now just +1.
  • The Ravens are all the way up to -10 against the Eagles, and this figures to be the result of Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson still being out of the lineup (both were tentatively expected to return earlier this week).

Betting Splits Breakdown

The Detroit Lions haven’t played particularly well this season while starting 1-3, but they’re coming off of a bye week and are getting an overwhelming share of the handle at 99% against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have lost four straight, with the last two coming against relatively weak teams in the Bengals and Texans, and it looks like DraftKings Sportsbook bettors are simply picking on the Jaguars as they continue to struggle. Going against underperforming teams is a theme for DraftKings Sportsbook bettors this week, as we’re seeing the same thing working against the Giants (bettors are heavily siding with Washington) and the Jets (bettors strongly prefer the Dolphins).

DraftKings Sportsbook bettors are also turning on some of the teams who had success the first few weeks but cratered in Week 5. The Buffalo Bills lost 42-16 on Tuesday night against the Titans, and as a result they’re getting just 7% of the bets and only 1% of the handle against the Chiefs for their upcoming game. The San Francisco 49ers were blown out at home by the Dolphins and are getting around 15% of both bets and handle for their home game this week against the Rams. Additionally, the once-trendy Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting almost no betting traction against the Packers after they disappointed last Thursday against the Bears.


How the Lines are Moving

Spreads

Chicago Bears (+3 to +1)

Green Bay Packers (+2 to -2.5 to -1)

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5 to +1)

Totals

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51.5 to 55.5)

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (49.5 to 52.5)

The Bucs are getting just a small fraction of the betting volume against the Packers, as mentioned above, but the line movement for this game is pretty unusual. The Bucs originally opened as two-point favorites, but after they lost to the Bears on Thursday night the line quickly shifted towards the Packers and got all the way up to Packers -2.5. Since that point (on Sunday), reports have indicated that both Davante Adams and Chris Godwin will be returning from injuries for the upcoming game, and the Bucs have since corrected back to just one-point underdogs. Additionally, the total has risen by four points and that also seems to be a direct result of these wide receivers.

The other two compelling spread moves this week involve small underdogs that have moved closer to a pick ‘em, as the Bears and Cowboys have both closed to gap by a couple of points. The Bears are facing the Panthers — who are on a three game winning streak — but who have also benefited from an easy schedule in recent games and were probably getting too much credit from the opening betting line. In the case of Cardinals vs. Cowboys, the opening line seems to have been dinging the Cowboys’ offense too much for the downgrade from Dak Prescott to Andy Dalton. It’s certainly a significant drop in quarterback talent, but Dalton has been a competent NFL QB for a long time and the Cowboys’ offense should still be decent with him under center.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.